Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity' • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#701

Post by oakfr » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:34 PM UTC

Cosmin_C wrote: post #482

oakfr wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, covid seems to have taught me the opposite. When covid hit, the time-to-market of a new vaccine was 10-15 years. The collective action of governments divided this number literally by ten. Despite all the bad words we've heard about bad policies and mistakes done by governments, I think we should be proud of what humankind has achieved during covid (granted, some governments have done and still do very…

The collective actions of governments did nothing there. What happened is we got exceedingly lucky the research was already there for 30-odd years and interested parties pumped money into it like there was no tomorrow. Most governments since COVID started faffed about endlessly and took really poor measures all around for what it looked like eternity (with a few notable exceptions). Eventually they got around getting…

I don't share your vision. Things are always obvious in the hindsight, but in reality, at least in Western Europe we did quite well. The challenges that governments faced were huge and numerous (if you account for social, economical, technical and political aspects).

Of course we can always do better, but the reality is that today, we have dozens of millions of people double-vaxxed here, and we're making progress.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#702

Post by coffeefirst » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:38 PM UTC

skinkestek wrote: post #31

So now we can get rid of fast fashion, mandate reusability for products, reintroduce basic woodworking, metalcrafting and sewing/repair work in school and with that get rid of a huge chunk of the needless shipping? Or are we still going to go after individuals eating traditional food while thought leaders fly across the globe in private jets (no kidding) telling us we need to change our diet? PS: I'm already a enthus…

Correct.

There's a desire to turn this into some kind of mass moral failing. We're all sinners with our cheeseburgers, or something like that.

This doesn't change the outcome. Mostly it's just an annoying distraction from the massive industrial endeavors that might actually make a dent.

Making more stuff locally would also be a fine idea.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#703

Post by ksdakfasdf » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:41 PM UTC

fouric wrote: post #699

There's a chart in the article from the IPCC report showing observed vs simulated global average temperature changes. How are the scientists making these models guarding against overfitting? I am not a climate change skeptic - I am simply asking an honest question that I don't know the answer to (which will be useful for dispelling the common argument that I hear some of my friends make). I also shouldn't have to pla…

In principle, these models can be run a la 'ab initio' (from first principles) so no fitting is required. Of course, there are subtleties and unknowns, so some fitting is needed, but overfitting can be checked in the usual ways.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#704

Post by Loeffelmann » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:44 PM UTC

dleslie wrote: post #679

Joeri wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Individual action won’t solve this problem. We need to leave the fossil fuels in the ground, which means switching energy sources, which is not something individuals have much influence on. Reducing energy use at the individual level is good, but insufficient if the energy used comes from fossil fuels. I’m not sure we need to switch lifestyles that much, but we will need to radically change energy production. There h…

> Individual action won’t solve this problem. We need to leave the fossil fuels in the ground, which means switching energy sources, which is not something individuals have much influence on. The covid shutdown should have put this myth to bed forever. Hundreds of millions stuck at home and no longer commuting took a massive dent out of carbon emissions and sent shock waves through the oil industry. Individual action…

Have carbon emissions decreased enough to actually matter in this time?

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#705

Post by BallinBige » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:44 PM UTC

Climate science has advanced quite a bit since the last IPCC assessment in 2014. We're also seeing far more impact in the real world in terms of more frequent storms, floods, droughts and wildfires. Previously it was more difficult to prove these were related to climate change as there are natural variations.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#706

Post by rcpt » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:45 PM UTC

FinanceAnon wrote: post #645

3pt14159 wrote: post #641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been saying this for years, but I finally get why "Just. Tax. It." doesn't work. The voters. They turn out in droves when it comes to taxes on something as visible as the price they pay at the pump or when it comes to the oil patch in Alberta. It's politically easier to create import duties or to go into debt and subsidize things. The level of taxation we need to stop a complete catastrophe is higher than people…

True, Switzerland (who I view as a "green" and progressive country) recently voted against those taxes in a referendum. I think it would be much worse in other countries. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57457384

Switzerland, like California, is a direct democracy. Taxes that touch the assets of voting demographics fail while taxes that burden non-voting demographics pass.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#707

Post by titzer » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:45 PM UTC

habosa wrote: post #621

Just. Tax. It. We have warmed the earth because we love comfort and money. We will never stop loving those things. So instead let's use the same systems to fix this (or at least slow things down). As an individual my largest carbon impact is air travel. I like to go places, it's one of the main things I work to afford. Every single plane ticket I take should have a tax which is used to offset or capture the carbon em…

> Every single plane ticket I take should have a tax which is used to offset or capture the carbon emissions of my flight. I will pay it.

So what you're saying is that it won't change your behavior. Why don't you just donate $1000 or whatever to a charity? (I dunno, maybe you already do). I don't mean to attack you, but encoded in your very language is the exact problem. No one is willing to change their own behavior, they want other people to change. Repeat this x 7 billion and suddenly you understand what the inertia is.

We live in the fading dream of a world that we sold to us that we could do whatever we want with absolutely no consequences; worse, that everything that we did that "made money" and contributed to GDP growth was good for everyone. Turns out that that was bullshit greed talking and the God of consequences is visiting its revenge on us through the same lesson every petri dish full of bacteria learns: you will choke to death on your own waste products.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#708

Post by qeternity » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:45 PM UTC

zug_zug wrote: post #625

Interestingly, if we add an offset tax to gasoline it'd only be 30 cents a gallon for inefficient capture (a lot, politically, but not harsher than living in your house for a year). With newer capture technologies it could be closer to 4 cents a gallon, which is less than the price difference between gas stations. The second-order effects are that once you build thousands of these capture stations there's huge financ…

Do you have a source for these numbers?

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#709

Post by slumdev » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:46 PM UTC

ihuk wrote: post #478

We bought an expensive washing machine 3 years ago thinking it will last us a long time. It already broke down twice. It's been broken for almost a month now waiting for parts and whatnot. There's a good chance we'll have to get another one. Does Electrolux/AEG care? No. They don't care about the environment, their only obligation is to their shareholders. But frankly neither do I anymore. Next time, I'll buy the che…

If you're in the United States, consider buying a Speed Queen.

They're not pretty. They don't have lots of features. They use more water*.

But they'll last forever.

*Many consider this to be a drawback, but it results in cleaner clothing.

Re: Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'

#710

Post by throwaway5752 » Mon, Aug 09, 2021, 3:47 PM UTC

The good (and bad) news is this will solve itself: if we don't act, humanity will die off substantially and technologically regress. Without dense and easily extractible energy source like hydrocarbons we're unlikely to achieve this level of technology again, and famine, war, and disease will take their natural courses when we can't fertilize our crops like we have in the past, are fighting new weather patterns, and don't have the research base to create sophisticated medicines. We can avoid it and become a post hydrocarbon energy based world, but given the last 5 years, I don't think collectively people are intelligent enough to pull it off. It is a shame, it would have been nice to discover more secrets of the universe and to colonize the solar system.