Live data from Hacker News

The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

nymag.com

461–465 of 465 posts

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#461
post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK is running human challenge trials to determine that. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/new-uk-challenge-trial-stud...

It's not if https://www.fox10tv.com/news/coronavirus/getting-covid-19-tw... https://www.nbclosangeles.com/on-air/one-mans-experience-abo... https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/more-people-are-gett... But how often and what are the consequences.

Are you going to actually respond or just downvote and move on?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#462
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> run through fear mongering More than 4 million people have died so far. If you're going to say it was "fear mongering" then buzz off.

If you aren't aware of all the fear mongering, you're not paying attention.

"If it bleeds, it leads" has been true since news began.

4 million died, so COVID coverage has the most accurate fear-to-reality alignment the news has ever had.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember reading that the deaths in countries corresponded pretty tightly with obesity levels in the population. If that's true, that throws lots of "evidence" right out the window. Edit: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-obesit...

This BBC story speculates that Delta became the main variant in part due to the cold weather. But I'm not sure any one factor can be singled out. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57489740

I saw a doctor on YouTube (just a private guy with his own channel) apply this same reasoning to Florida. Right now is Florida's "winter": meaning, people tend to stay indoors with the windows closed (to avoid the oppressive heat of the July and August).

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what the point of such conjecture is. Of course we don't know how much immunity comes from infection, and it is quite clear from the spread of delta that we are nowhere near herd immunity in the developed world, even in places like Israel. I had a coronavirus called a cold last year; does that mean I'm immune this year? Unlikely in the long term with COVID. The entire concept of herd immunity may be a mi…

> Usually viruses become more transmissible and less lethal in response to rational behavior in their hosts--but humans are proving we're not rational. I was under the impression viruses became less lethal because if they became more, they'd kill off their hosts and be less likely to spread. There's a chance you get some super virus that becomes both more transmissible and lethal, but that is very rare (from what I c…

[deleted]

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But everything we know about existing respiratory viruses (and indications so far this year) suggest antibodies will wane. Not necessarily the case. Infections with HCoV-229E produces durable immunity and reinfection is due to antigenic drift: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1 That it at odds with prior studies that found ~12 month reinfections with coronaviruses, but it is with considerab…

Setting up two likely scenarios is a very reasonable way of approaching future development, both scenarios sound likely to me. We could look at the flu for clues, in that case every year will have one or more variants that are the most prominent. I'd argue that in the age category with the most infected (10-29 years old) in the UK, that these people are not killing themselves due to their young age. And the elderly h…

Flu is a bad example --- it has 8 "segments" (basically "chromosomes") that get reassorted among the offspring when a cell is infected by multiple strains, leading to a crude form of "sexual recombination". (The numbers after the "H" and "N" indicate the variant-numbers of the Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase "segments" that the flu-variant got; a cell infected by H1N1 and H2N5 will also produce some H2N1 and H1N5 offspring in addition to H1N1 and H2N5, leading to very rapid genepool evolution)

By contrast SARS-CoV-2 only has a single chromosome, and so it primarily evolves via "genetic drift". While it's _possible_ for a cell infected by multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants to generate "chimeric" offspring via a process called "crossover" AKA "homologous recombination", that mechanism is much less effective than the simple segment-reassortment that drives flu evolution.

Post reply on HN