Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream • Hacker News Board

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#61

Post by lettergram » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

matttproud wrote: post #5

Makes me look back at the last 20-30 years of discourse in the United States and let out a deep sigh. Had CFC propellants emerged today, I highly doubt the U.S. would have been a signatory to the Montreal Protocol — just to own the libs or avoid hindering the market by a boogeyman of 0.0001% overhead or some other form of contrarian political identity differentiation.

I’m frankly less concerned about climate change - in reality we don’t have enough data for super definitive answers. Further, we can and the world can fairly easily adapt. A few degrees over a hundred years is easily manageable.

In contrast, insect populations are dropping like a stone.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_in_insect_population...

We’re going to have serious problems within the next 5-10 years if that continues. We also have declining water availability and increasing water usage in the western US. And we have a potentially massive issue with solar weather (which can theoretically wipe out all electronics).

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#62

Post by wavs » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

foota wrote: post #52

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

In fairness, we did get vaccines ready nearly from the get go.

And in fairness, lot's of smart people have worked to create renewable alternatives to energy, etc.; but a subset of society has decided we don't need that. Sounds a lot like the COVID/vaccine situation.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#63

Post by randomluck040 » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

foota wrote: post #52

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

In fairness, we did get vaccines ready nearly from the get go.

It’s always a few people that save everything before resulting in a clown fiesta. I hope there will always be the few people.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#64

Post by octaonalocto » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #40

Permit wrote: post #36

I often hear that as individuals we can't really be held responsible for climate change and that instead we should look to our government to impose laws that restrict carbon output. This made me curious: what is the "fair" amount of carbon dioxide that the average individual can emit? According to this article[1][2] published in Nature it looks like the answer is 1.61 metric tons of CO2/year. That strikes me as close…

> That strikes me as close-to-impossible for industrialized nations to achieve. A round-trip flight from NYC to SF emits 1.5 metric tons per passenger. In order to reach 1.61 metric tons an individual would not be able to own a gas-powered car, could not regularly consume meat, could not live in remote areas only visitable by plane etc. So? > Many things people don't even consider "luxuries" (like visiting family ove…

I strongly disagree with your comment. Your definition of luxury is narrow and proscriptive. If you're trying to evaluate whether people would accept certain changes in their lifestyle, their definition of luxury is the one that matters.

In a tight definition, indoor plumbing is a luxury. As a person whose family vacations used to include an outhouse, I most certainly do not consider that a luxury in my life.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#65

Post by krona » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one

Sorry, the Flynn effect is dead.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#66

Post by epgui » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

foota wrote: post #52

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

In fairness, we did get vaccines ready nearly from the get go.

Mobilizing scientists is easy because you don’t need to explain to them that everyone’s survival depends on it.

It only becomes difficult when you have to mobilize politicians and regular folks.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#67

Post by jacquesm » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:41 PM UTC

konschubert wrote: post #48

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

But we used paper straws, isn’t that enough? In al seriousness, the next generation isn’t going to be all that different than the last 10000 generations of mankind.

They could very well be different than all of the preceding ones in the sense that there could be less of them than the preceding generation which is something that hasn't happened since mankind started to reproduce in earnest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Past_populati...

Famines, pandemics and wars are mere speed bumps compared to the kind of impact this can have. And if not the next generation then maybe the one after it but this will not go on for much longer before some kind of limit is reached.

It's all the same until suddenly it's not.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#68

Post by lazide » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:41 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

We’re inundated with folks screaming about danger and hyping up fear from every angle - everything from economic collapse, to stock market crashes, to apocalyptic visions from every angle about climate, etc.

And what most people, especially younger folks, don’t realize is that it’s AlWAYS been this way. And most of the time, when something does blow up, there wasn’t a clear or unambiguous difference between the thing that blew up, and all the things everyone was screaming about that did not.

It’s natural that people are going to tune out and not take it super seriously, especially people who have given up on doing the deep research to have an informed opinion on the constant stream of new topics everyone is worried about. Which is a problem when it legitimately is a serious problem.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#69

Post by failuser » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:41 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #24

cwkoss wrote: post #12

What would happen if the Gulf Stream did collapse? Would a different similar circulatory system emerge soon after? Would the lack of a dominant system lead to many more smaller chaotic systems? Do we just not know what would happen, so that it's concerning in that it's unknowable?

You can kiss Northern Europe as a habitable area goodbye. So yes, it matters quite a bit.

Northwest Russia is habitable. Not that pleasant, but habitable.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#70

Post by beebmam » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 8:41 PM UTC

matttproud wrote: post #31

slownews45 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah - even where I am there has been a pull back on stuff. We've got a ban on plastic straws (ie, you can't use one then throw it in the trash in the resteraunt) to help save nature. But you go outside and the amount of trash just blowing into the water from various encampments near the water is just nuts. Their are claims of concerns about carbon emissions, but absolute opposition to any work around nuclear. If car…

The performative stuff has to stop. On the one vacation I am doing since this pandemic began, I saw a place in Northern Italy give out paper straws enclosed in plastic wrapping. You have to be kidding me. It’s missing the point and greenwashing at its finest (unrelated to climate). You’ll meet plenty on the left, especially scientists, who are in favor of nuclear. Where I live (Switzerland[0]), the biggest NIMBY agai…

It's important to remember that plastic waste is virtually unrelated to climate change. They both might be "green" issues, but plastic straws in our oceans aren't going to have any significant effect on warming the planet. They'll just end up causing ecological changes/damage.

Malicious actors try to conflate the two. Carbon gas emissions pose an existential threat to the future of human society; plastic straws do not.