China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor • Hacker News Board

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#51

Post by thinktankie » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:14 AM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #44

smhost wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe in movies. governments mostly tend to lie about things they did badly, not about long-term accomplishments that can be fairly easily measured against their previous record, currently level of expertise, etc.

Lies about industrial progress? About industrial capacity? That is exactly the sort of thing that China has lied about in the past. There is a great video of Putin laughing as a minister talks about all the pork they export to indonesia. These sorts of lies are normal for such nations. Nobody takes them too seriously, especially those telling them.

> “These sorts of lies are normal for such nations”

“I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole. We had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment.”

-Mike Pompeo, former CIA director and U.S Secretary of State [1]

[1] https://youtu.be/6RmEsPE7iq0?t=9

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#52

Post by haecceity » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:14 AM UTC

apatheticonion wrote: post #24

I have been doing my best to find critical information on the viability of Thorium based nuclear reactors (because they sound too good to be true). Everyone sings their praises, but what engineering challenges are there and are those engineering challenges large enough to discourage their development/adoption? The biggest thing I have found is that the salt solution for Thorium reactors is quite corrosive and that is…

Existing energy industry is too entrenched in current technology to innovate? Widely publicized nuclear energy disasters prevents popular support? I don't know but this guy seems pretty smart

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EFfxMx6WJs

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#53

Post by refenestrator » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:15 AM UTC

smhost wrote: post #37

maerF0x0 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you implying a specific group?

yeah, the old clintonites, the sinemas, maybe you can toss mitt romney in there. they're the most powerful political bloc currently, if you're new to politics

Basically the entire national security mainstream.

If you consider "america should be the number one power and do whatever it takes to stay that way" to be an unbiased and neutral statement, then sure, Foreign Policy is unbiased.

I wouldn't go to them for a viewpoint inclusive of American rivals, though.

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#54

Post by tpmx » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:16 AM UTC

robocat wrote: post #50

tpmx wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you able to substantiate that claim? https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/18/china-covid-19-killed-h... It is widely known that when the new coronavirus emerged in December 2019, the Chinese government downplayed the pandemic threat for several critical weeks. Less commonly known is those same authorities deliberately sacrificed health workers to maintain their lies. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) calculated…

Blaming China is pointless: Western countries had control of their borders and did not act. Taiwan started its lockdown procedures on people entering from China on December 31st, 2019. Taiwan knew what was happening, and all governments should have had similar knowledge - they certainly should not have been waiting for China to tell WHO or whatever other lame argument that article makes. I am sick of the same boring…

I agree that the fault also lies with other countries for letting the virus in so easily. But the grandparent poster asked for an example where the CCP lied and I obliged.

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#55

Post by mdorazio » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:19 AM UTC

seiferteric wrote: post #7

timbit42 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long does it take to plan and build a nuclear plant? At the rate solar, wind and energy storage are improving, will it be worth the wait? Solar has dropped in price by more than 80% in the past 10 years.

Compare the EROEI on solar (~10) vs nuclear (~100), and LFTR (~1200 maybe...) in particular, there is no comparison. In the future we will need far more electrical energy, it's not enough to just replace what we currently have. Also if we want to actively remove carbon from the atmosphere, we will need a tremendous amount of power.

You need to qualify a few statements there.

Total electricity consumption peaked in Western nations over a decade ago and has basically been flat or dropping since [1][2]. So when you say, "In the future, we will need far more electrical energy" it's missing ... "in the developing world." Which, personally, is not my first choice for where to put nuclear reactors.

Second, we don't actually need to use a bunch of electricity to remove carbon from the atmosphere - I'm not sure what technology you're referring to there. The easiest way to do it is by growing as many trees as we can, which doesn't really take power at all aside from the initial planting.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/use-of-elect... [2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#56

Post by craftinator » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:21 AM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #15

smhost wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this also isn't the type of thing that governments tend to lie about. it's not like a scenario where a contractor overpromises and underdelivers and government media has to do damage control. they're also not announcing some new leap in scientific understanding. it's old science.

> this also isn't the type of thing that governments tend to lie about This is the sort of thing governments lie about, IME - big, sensational achievements that enhance their status.

It would be incredibly stupid, at many levels, to lie about something that is so public and scientifically scrutable. There's almost no benefit, at a national level, to lying about this, and when the world eventually learns of the lie, which it would quite quickly, China would be the laughing stock of the scientific world, which is the opposite of what the CCP wants.

So no, this is not a lie, because it would be both obviously stupid, and obviously not in the best interest of China to do that; not even an amazingly shitty and disorganized government would be that stupid, and the Chinese government is quite coherent, and very good at acting I it's own interests.

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#57

Post by Someone » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:30 AM UTC

tpmx wrote: post #3

That would be awesome, but unfortunately the CCP have proven to us that we can't trust their word.

Reading the article, there aren’t huge scientific problems building these reactors. So, if there’s government support, it seems likely to me these will be built.

I also think China has proven that it is willing and able to rapidly build infrastructure. That makes me think their timeline can be in the right ballpark, too.

They also seem to have been willing to sacrifice quality for speed in large infrastructure projects, though (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wenzhou_train_collision, https://www.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-40638820090627, https://www.npr.org/2012/08/29/160231137/chinese-blame-faile...)

That’s something I would worry more about (disclaimer: China is huge, so it will have its share of disasters. It also probably will pay more attention to nuclear projects than to bread-and-butter concrete pouring for buildings and roads)

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#58

Post by seiferteric » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:35 AM UTC

mdorazio wrote: post #55

seiferteric wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compare the EROEI on solar (~10) vs nuclear (~100), and LFTR (~1200 maybe...) in particular, there is no comparison. In the future we will need far more electrical energy, it's not enough to just replace what we currently have. Also if we want to actively remove carbon from the atmosphere, we will need a tremendous amount of power.

You need to qualify a few statements there. Total electricity consumption peaked in Western nations over a decade ago and has basically been flat or dropping since [1][2]. So when you say, "In the future, we will need far more electrical energy" it's missing ... "in the developing world." Which, personally, is not my first choice for where to put nuclear reactors. Second, we don't actually need to use a bunch of elec…

We definitely should plant more trees, but the idea that it is the solution to removing carbon I think has been pretty debunked at this point. Between increase in forrest fires, lack of rainfall, lack of available and viable land to grow trees and other issues, it just is not even close to the whole solution.

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#59

Post by chasil » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 12:53 AM UTC

ggm wrote: post #18

DennisP wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One nice thing about a molten salt reactor like China is building is that the dangerous fission products are chemically bound in the salt. If some external event breaks the reactor wide open, the salt cools and you just have radioactive rocks there on the site, instead of a radioactive cloud over a large region.

Look, I want to agree and I'm neither a geologist nor a nuclear scientist but I think you're fantasising if you think there will be no particulate, dispersed matter. The salt mix even if the lower temp melting mixtures is 200°C or more above ambient. It will explode on contact with moisture. There will be clouds of burning materials. If you say LESS dispersed radiation? Sure. None... sorry not chemically or mechanica…

Actually, one safety feature of an MSR is a "salt plug" that melts at a higher temperature.

When the plug melts, the contents of the reactor flow into a boron containment.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030645491...

Re: China Says It's Closing in on Thorium Nuclear Reactor

#60

Post by refenestrator » Thu, Aug 05, 2021, 1:24 AM UTC

tpmx wrote: post #54

robocat wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blaming China is pointless: Western countries had control of their borders and did not act. Taiwan started its lockdown procedures on people entering from China on December 31st, 2019. Taiwan knew what was happening, and all governments should have had similar knowledge - they certainly should not have been waiting for China to tell WHO or whatever other lame argument that article makes. I am sick of the same boring…

I agree that the fault also lies with other countries for letting the virus in so easily. But the grandparent poster asked for an example where the CCP lied and I obliged.

The full story there is the local authorities lied initially, then the feds found out and fired them while slamming the red alert button. Mayor of Wuhan and Governor of Hubei sacked in the aftermath. This all happened MONTHS before the virus hit the US.

The CCP is 100 million people.