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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

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Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#441

Post by basch »

timr wrote: post #181
basch wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I had to guess (and maybe I shouldnt be speaking as I didnt downvote), its a combination of "It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts" followed by unsubstantiated "compelling evidence that children are at greater risk from the vaccines than the virus." The "time to stop with fear" and to stop catering to "anxious adults" can equally apply to this persons crusade to not vaccinate chil…

> its a combination of "It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts" followed by unsubstantiated "compelling evidence that children are at greater risk from the vaccines than the virus." The links I provided -- particularly the last three -- document the points I made regarding relative risk. You just have to read them.

I did make some effort to comb through your links, and I didn't see anything regarding the risk you mention.

You said, your last 3 links in particular. The third to last is the CDC about covid not vaccines.

The Bloomberg article said "The British position is driven by fears of rare cases of myocarditis -- an inflammation of the heart muscle -- and pericarditis -- an inflammation of membranes around the heart -- in younger people who have had the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines."

The VOA article said "Those opposed to vaccinating teenagers argue the risks of adverse reactions outweigh the benefits."

So I ask, what substantiation do you have. Because all youve given is fear. Is there a case of myocarditis death after a vaccine? 79% of young people (around 1000 total) have recovered. Are you expecting the rest not to recover?

Im curious how you calculate risk? Covid deaths 17, mrna vaccine deaths 0? How is the vaccine a greater risk? Are you comparing long term side effects? How do you have those statistics? I still contend that your claim that children are at "greater risk" (of what?) from the vaccine is unsubstantiated at this point. What you are doing is exactly what you accuse others of doing, instilling fear over reason.

I dont believe reality reflects your purview. https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/article_27d70fa...

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#442

Post by basch »

colordrops wrote: post #228
basch wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I had to guess (and maybe I shouldnt be speaking as I didnt downvote), its a combination of "It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts" followed by unsubstantiated "compelling evidence that children are at greater risk from the vaccines than the virus." The "time to stop with fear" and to stop catering to "anxious adults" can equally apply to this persons crusade to not vaccinate chil…

When you say "unsubstantiated", what do you mean? The post contained links with references from fairly reputable sources.

Could you quote a substantiated reference of serious risk? Is it something I missed besides the myocarditis?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#444

Post by qwytw »

adventured wrote: post #219
sokoloff wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the forever-COVID reality for 95+% of the population is "you really, really ought to get that annual booster shot" (instead of "get the flu shot iff it's convenient"), that's not actually so terrible. If it becomes century-long endemic in the population, kids are exposed to it, likely creating a productive exposure-related immune reaction until they're old enough to get an mRNA vaccine.

Definitely. I don't think it's terrible at all given the alternative is tens or hundreds of thousands of additional people dying from Covid per year in the US. I guess we'll soon see the extent to which the public can be convinced to get booster shots every year. The governments of the world will have their jobs cut out for them, there will be a lot of resistance to forever Covid vaccinations as time goes on (and ver…

It's probably going to end end up the same as the Spanish Flu influenza variant, occasional localized outbreaks which are much less severe than the original pandemic.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#445

Post by mdp2021 »

nostrademons wrote: post #134
arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

The herd immunity threshold changed with Delta, which I've heard has an R0 of 8-10 (compare 3.5-4.5 for the UK Alpha variant, and about 2.5 for the original strain). Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Probably Delta will blow through literally all th…

I also kept in mind that amount of R0 for the "Indian variant", until last week I saw it halved to 4..5×.

Then you realize that a transmission rate among the timid in ShyFleetersLand and the compulsive in LetsHugLand cannot be the same. Then you realize that that very average number needs explanations of the underlying model to be meaningful - it comes from societal behaviour not just from intrinsic viral properties.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#446

Post by mdp2021 »

kkvcdyh wrote: post #351
nostrademons wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The herd immunity threshold changed with Delta, which I've heard has an R0 of 8-10 (compare 3.5-4.5 for the UK Alpha variant, and about 2.5 for the original strain). Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Probably Delta will blow through literally all th…

Where did you "hear" it has an R0 of 8-10? It's not time to be imprecise. If you're referencing the CDC's case study from Provincetown, I think it's important to point out that the R value cited is the R value during Bear Week, not on average.

> It's not time to be imprecise

:) Many of us have felt something along those lines since the early times.

But e.g. the viral load for said variant was reported as _1000x_ Wuhan weeks ago, value changed to _3x_ days ago.

I read the emergence of Tinnitus after COVID-19 weeks ago at _67%_, today at _0.shmbrmbsomething_.

We are flooded in bad numbers. (And of course, that R0 is also circumstantial, vs the examples above...)

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#447

Post by mdp2021 »

nostrademons wrote: post #134
arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

The herd immunity threshold changed with Delta, which I've heard has an R0 of 8-10 (compare 3.5-4.5 for the UK Alpha variant, and about 2.5 for the original strain). Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Probably Delta will blow through literally all th…

Look, just fresh in came an article from Shabir A. Madhi, Dean Faculty of Health Sciences and Professor of Vaccinology at University of the Witwatersrand; and Director of the SAMRC Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand

COVID-19 herd immunity? It's not going to happen, so what next?

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-herd-immunity-its-not-g...

> we would need to get close to 84% of the global population developing protection against infection (in the absence of non-pharmacological interventions) in as brief a period of time as possible

(...also, there, you find «the reproductive rate [...] is probably closer to six rather than three»)

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#448

Post by stadium »

nradov wrote: post #436
stadium wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add to that, the more it multiplies and spreads, the more chance of mutations leading to more variants. Needing updated vaccines, booster shots of existing, and/or higher rates needed to reach herd immunity. Didn't the UK have another lockdown for this wave too? Herd-masking seemed like a no-brainer from the beginning. It will be really hard to go back to that in the US after the CDC giving the all clear to go maskle…

You can't expect people to wear masks forever.

True, but maybe just until the pandemic is actually under control. Which would happen faster if people kept their masks on.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#449

Post by timr »

Terretta wrote: post #419
timr wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You are also speculating, but simply about different things. You're speculating about harm from the vaccine, No, I've provided evidence of that. It's not speculation: young boys are seeing disproportionate levels of vaccine-induced myocarditis > One way to avoid going down that speculation rabbithole is to defer to experts whose job it is to weigh the pros and cons and crunch the numbers Indeed, that's all I've don…

Here you say listen to both arguments, which seems right. Above your tone was ‘don’t vax kids because the UK and half of Europe say not to’ which does make one wonder, ‘what about the other half?’ The UK is often on the wrong side of health vs. quackery, in recent decades originating then spreading more ‘expert’ FUD to set back global disease eradication than perhaps any other first world country. That doesn’t mean t…

> Above your tone was ‘don’t vax kids because the UK and half of Europe say not to’ which does make one wonder, ‘what about the other half?’

I don't think that was my tone, but interpretation is up to the reader, I guess.

An accurate, concise statement of my opinion is that the vaccines should probably not be approved for kids under 12 at this time, and that this does not meaningfully affect our ability to get past the current hysteria, which we should be doing with great haste.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#450

Post by Wolfenstein98k »

rtpg wrote: post #363
spookthesunset wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's a lot of evidence about what worked what didn't work If that was true why can I take the population adjusted graphs for any interesting statistic, overlay several countries or states, and see the shape of them all is basically the same? I would assert that for any of these non-pharmaceutical interventions to have been worthwhile the effect on such charts should be absolutely noticeable to any layman on the…

That's just not true? there have of course been outbreaks in many countries so the graphs _look similar_, but usually at totally different scales. Did you forget about the half-million dead in the richest country in the world? That didn't not happen, and is extremely different from other places.

Adjust for population and the nature of the country (ie values freedom highly), and then testing rates, and you'll see it's not as unique as you think.

Many other countries had huge death rates but didn't test much before and don't test the dead, unlike the States.

Then control for age and obesity, the two factors that make a population most vulnerable.

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