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South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

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Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#201

Post by scbrg »

Balero wrote: post #151
keewee7 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is immigration but with high barrier to entry. I live in Denmark, a country portrayed as anti-immigrant by American and British media. However there is no opposition to educated professional immigrants from India, China, Iran and Eastern Europe. Brain drain of these countries could be a problem but countries like India and Iran are probably producing many more highly educated individuals than they can do…

This is hopefully just a temporary solution though. What happens when these places get rich enough that their birth rates also drop? To butcher an unrelated saying: "We can't all get immigrants from each other".

Perhaps we need to find another way to fuel the economy than the never ending pyramid scheme called population growth. At 8 billion (causing massive environmental damage) a drop in population would certainly not be a bad thing.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#202

Post by juskrey »

sandworm101 wrote: post #198
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

Why is immigration the answer? All you need is workers, not immigrants. SK will probably do what the gulf states do. They will bring in foreign labor but with a clear separation between expat workers and potential "immigrants". These people will work finite contracts and then be literally sent home once the contract is over, mooting any concept of naturalization. Gulf states have done this relatively successfully for…

With complete degeneration of nearly everything else

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#203

Post by ffwszgf »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #183
twelve40 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Encouraging births isn't hard if a government decides its important Do you have any examples or even just any precedents how decades of declines and lowest birth rate in the world have been easily and successfully turned around, or this is all just hypothetically probably not hard?

As far as I can tell, there has yet to exist a condition under which the political will to really tackle this problem has been present, so you would not expect to see an example of a country successfully addressing it. This is pretty normal for humans -- waiting until a problem becomes catastrophic to do anything about it -- as we have seen in other areas recently. We will see how things are going in another few deca…

You can’t rescue ethnic groups that refuse to procreate. Look at Norway and Sweden, the people in those countries long ago decided their culture was not worth preserving. No amount of policy will change that

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#204

Post by com2kid »

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

> How does the developed world pull out of this type of tailspin?

Make childcare easier. Traditionally people lived in the same town as their parents and in-laws. Now days it is thousands of dollars a month in day care.

Want your kids to go to college? In 18 years that is expected to cost well over 100k for a state school.

Raising kids has gotten more stressful and more expensive, of course people aren't having kids! And those who do stop after one.

Not that I have any good idea for childcare. Real estate prices in cities are so high that opening a day care is not the wisest financial decision. Home day cares are a solution, but licensing and compliance issues abound that can also destroy their ability to stay in business.

Heck in America if I want a care that seats more than 4 (I'm ignoring the "5th" middle seat) I am stuck buying a bloody SUV or minivan. Can't even get a 3 row compact people mover because CAFE rules quite literally ban their existence. So 2 kids is basically has a "get a giant vehicle" tax attached to it. Live in a city? Have fun parking that SUV!

And how about schools? In my city, a house that is zoned to good schools has a 200-300k price premium! Want to move to an area with really good schools? That can become a 500k premium.

Japan has separate issues, if fathers are working 10-12 hours a day and are never home, and women are expected to just stop their careers after having kids, well of course women aren't jumping at the chance to start a family. Raise a kid with an absentee husband? No wonder that isn't going over well.

tl;dr life is too expensive. We've created a society that does not promote having children or having a family. Everything down to our underlying infrastructure is anti-family.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#205

Post by slothtrop »

spothedog1 wrote: post #193
slothtrop wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automation is progressing faster than new 'types' of jobs are created. In many sectors they'll be poised to be oversaturated with workers. Owners are happy to remove the human element wherever reasonably possible.

Except the US has a large labor shortage that predates covid in construction, agriculture, domestic work, scientists, engineers and more. If automation comes then great but the basic principals of more people in an economy means more demand for goods and services still applies.

Pay more and the labor shortage will disappear. Every industry exploiting temporary visas or undocumented workers claims there's a shortage.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#206

Post by BurningFrog »

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

Hungary and Poland are making serious efforts to boost their birth rates.

Hungary gives life time tax exemption to mothers of 4 children, and may lower that to 3.

It's too early to tell if it's working.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/baby-bonuses-f...

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#207

Post by bigbillheck »

devchix wrote: post #147

> South Korea’s rise to a middle power status comes without much historical baggage The kingdom of Joseon was annexed entirely by Japan in 1905. Modern Korea (nevermind the North/South prefix) would not exist had the US not enter WWII. The 35-years under Japan is a major flashpoint in Japan-Korea relation, it's a joke that the thing that unites North and South is their common hatred of Japan. I'm surprised there's no…

> Historians agree that the costly outcome of the Russo-Japanese war led to the rise of militaristic Japan and their entry into WWII.

There was an awful lot going on in Japan during the Taishou era tho.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#208

Post by simmanian »

mathverse wrote: post #107
vbtemp wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be curious to see a Slate Star Codex piece on this. One of his classic pieces was "Meditations on Moloch" https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ ( and related: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/12/17/the-toxoplasma-of-rage... ) It seems like the similar thing here - literally everyone sees how agonizing, exhausting, detrimental, and counterproductive the current system is. No one likes it. But…

It's very simple actually.Koreans hate the working culture and long working hours but at the same time require convenience that can only be achieved by maintaining this hellish working culture.

With all due respect, this analysis is grossly reductive and only touching the surface of a complex phenomenon. Long working hours can be found in many East Asian countries not limited to just Korea. Sure, love of convenience is partly to blame, but let's not ignore the history and cultural elements behind it. It goes without saying, but without the long working hours, Korea would not have become the "middle power" that it is today either. The "hell joseon" article you linked is an interesting phenomenon especially because no other East Asian country is so critical of its own culture and conditions. S. Korea is unique in that its people are almost always looking to criticize and change their ways to compete on the world stage.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#209

Post by publicola1990 »

vjdingdong wrote: post #166

German unification was unthinkable until the soviet union collapsed. Maybe in 25 years, the 2 Koreas will be reunited, making Korea an even bigger power on the global stage.

German 'Reunification' happened before Soviet Union collapsed. Also UK, France etc were against German Reunification as well before it happened.

Also Austria is still not unified with modern Germany.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#210

Post by idiotsecant »

spothedog1 wrote: post #193
slothtrop wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automation is progressing faster than new 'types' of jobs are created. In many sectors they'll be poised to be oversaturated with workers. Owners are happy to remove the human element wherever reasonably possible.

Except the US has a large labor shortage that predates covid in construction, agriculture, domestic work, scientists, engineers and more. If automation comes then great but the basic principals of more people in an economy means more demand for goods and services still applies.

There is no labor shortage. When wages increase in all those areas those labor 'shortages' mysteriously end.
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