South Korea: The only middle power of its kind • Hacker News Board

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#181

Post by ajmurmann » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 4:59 PM UTC

3pt14159 wrote: post #48

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

One core issue is housing. And the core issue with housing is that prices are an arms race where everyone always wants more. Most people would have two or three kids if they felt like they could afford it. The second core issue is modern dating. That one I don't know how to fix, but the essential issue there is the dynamics of dating not requiring commitment coupled with financial security for women mean long term pa…

How does childcare look in SK? I believe that in much of the Western world, families living further apart is a problem for having children. Having grand parents nearby can make having children so much easier. In the US I think you either need family nearby or have a lot of money to avoid having children becoming totally overwhelming and very negatively impact all other aspects of your life.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#182

Post by nodejs_rulez_1 » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:00 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #127

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

> How does the developed world pull out of this type of tailspin? 1. Find a young woman 2. Make her happy, and confident in you 3. ? 4. Pull your family for the next 30-40 years With all respects, I always seen a family as a man's responsibility, and a failure at creating/maintaining one to coming from man's deficiencies first. In virtually every human culture in the world, even matriarchal societies, it is by defaul…

A man can always always find another woman if one does not want a family with him up until mid-thirties. A lot of time.

If you filter out the overweight, tattoo-covered ones, having kids by another man etc. you are left with just a few percent though.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#183

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:02 PM UTC

twelve40 wrote: post #170

dragonwriter wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is actually quite hard to raise the birth rate, Japan has been trying for years Not...really. > UN report on Japan's birth rate policy attempts: And details defects in the specific policies (notably, these defects are, one who is familiar with policies of the type will notice, ways they fall short of the support policies in many European countries that aren't even specifically trying to boost birth rates .) E.g.…

> Encouraging births isn't hard if a government decides its important Do you have any examples or even just any precedents how decades of declines and lowest birth rate in the world have been easily and successfully turned around, or this is all just hypothetically probably not hard?

As far as I can tell, there has yet to exist a condition under which the political will to really tackle this problem has been present, so you would not expect to see an example of a country successfully addressing it. This is pretty normal for humans -- waiting until a problem becomes catastrophic to do anything about it -- as we have seen in other areas recently. We will see how things are going in another few decades.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#184

Post by cturner » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:07 PM UTC

"Indeed, South Korea is the only country that successfully made its transition from a former colony to an advanced economy."

This is not right. Each of the following meet the same criteria, including the author's caveats - Taiwan (also Japan), Greece (Ottoman), Finland (Swedes), Ireland (British), numerous Central European nations (Soviet Union). Some others that are debatable - Cyprus, Malta, Israel, Singapore, Chile. At the time of their handovers, Hong Kong and Macau would each have met the definition.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#185

Post by Zamicol » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #13

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

> going to be one of the grand challenges of the 50 years I’m sceptical of this claim. Demand per capita grows unabated. Working lives are lengthening. A smaller population living well is economically indistinguishable, in the aggregate, from a large one living poorly. Maybe post-industrial civilisations settle into a lower-population steady state than ones requiring lots of unrefined labor. Yes, dependency ratios wi…

That's a dangerous bet.

If you're wrong, the consequences are dire.

If you're right, there's not much upside compared to being prepared for being wrong.

That's not a reasonable calculation.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#186

Post by forinti » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:10 PM UTC

vjdingdong wrote: post #166

German unification was unthinkable until the soviet union collapsed. Maybe in 25 years, the 2 Koreas will be reunited, making Korea an even bigger power on the global stage.

The DDR had about half the income per capita as West Germany. South Korea is currently at about 24x the per capita income of the north.

It would be a huge challenge to unify those two economies and it would surely take decades. South Korea developed itself from the 1960s onwards, so I would guess that unification would take that kind of time frame (50-60 years - if they could pull off another such miracle).

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#187

Post by jyscao » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:12 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #13

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

> going to be one of the grand challenges of the 50 years I’m sceptical of this claim. Demand per capita grows unabated. Working lives are lengthening. A smaller population living well is economically indistinguishable, in the aggregate, from a large one living poorly. Maybe post-industrial civilisations settle into a lower-population steady state than ones requiring lots of unrefined labor. Yes, dependency ratios wi…

> A smaller population living well is economically indistinguishable, in the aggregate, from a large one living poorly

I'm sceptical of this claim. Young people and old people are biologically different, in the aggregate. Obvious differences in physical capabilities aside, arguably even more impactful for the future of a given nation are their psychological differences; i.e. innovation and risk-taking invariably comes more from the younger generations.

Perhaps if you're only considering dollars being circulated in a domestic economy, an abundance of wealthy old folks can potentially offset the lack of youthful societal members. But the developmental direction such a demographic structure pushes its society is unlikely to be good for sustaining itself in the long run.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#188

Post by asoneth » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:12 PM UTC

emptysongglass wrote: post #161

asoneth wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many countries already invest substantial resources towards caring for children in the form of subsidized daycares, public schooling, subsidized food, etc. I expect demographics will force many countries to become even more generous in this regard. If you're referring to the government or other entity taking primary guardianship of children that does already occur in the foster/adoption system, but I don't understand…

Thanks for the thoughtful response. > Would it motivate you to have children if the government offered to take them off your hands after they're born? Yes, I'd give them all the babies int the world if they offered to take them off my hands after they were born. "Kibbutz" was the word that sprang to my mind when I wrote my first comment. I'm curious, too, if the state could professionalize birthing: a woman would be…

> I'd give them all the babies in the world if they offered to take them off my hands after they were born

Assuming you have not already done so, perhaps becoming a surrogate or donating sperm would be an option for you? While it's not exactly handing a baby to the state, there are many couples who would be interested in raising children but are not biologically capable.

At least of the parents I know, I am skeptical that simply offering to take additional children off their hands would incentivize them to continue giving birth to more children.

> a woman would be paid a hefty sum to bear a child to term

In the US the market has determined that sum to be $25,000 on average.[1] I don't know whether you would consider that hefty, but it's at least an order of magnitude lower than what it would take to incentivize me to bear a child.

[1] https://surrogate.com/surrogates/becoming-a-surrogate/being-...

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#189

Post by jorblumesea » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:13 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #124

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

Not really. Immigration has become an issue lately because a human (or a bare-human) is worth much less. 1.000 years ago a bare illiterate human had some considerable value. He could work in the field or he could fight. More humans, more food and production. More humans, more manpower to fight your enemies. Now a bare semi-educated human is a liability. Which is why most countries are refusing their entrance. Times h…

Automation isn't at the point where you can get economic and productivity growth with a declining population. Maybe in the future this will be true, but it's not true now. Even highly automated economies will see contraction and tax base decreases. The current solution, ala the Bank of Japan, is to run huge deficits, and they are on the cutting edge of what an aging population looks like.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#190

Post by spothedog1 » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #124

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

Not really. Immigration has become an issue lately because a human (or a bare-human) is worth much less. 1.000 years ago a bare illiterate human had some considerable value. He could work in the field or he could fight. More humans, more food and production. More humans, more manpower to fight your enemies. Now a bare semi-educated human is a liability. Which is why most countries are refusing their entrance. Times h…

This is inaccurate. More people, even low skilled ones are still a huge benefit to your society. They buy goods and services in the local economy increasing demand and work tax paying jobs. Immigrants children grow up to greatly out earn their parents pay way more in taxes than they their parents. The only immigrant group that could be considered a liability are older low skilled workers who have passed the age to have kids and live a couple of decades of working years. The reason certain countries don’t like immigration is because a conservative faction wants to keep society in place.