Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Honestly, I think the PRC's hubris is more than matched by the US's (and Western world's). Yes, I still definitely agree with that one. US’s hubris is the undeniably the largest in the world. > I think it's ultimately the PRC's goal to have domestic champions replace those global corporations in the global economy (e.g. Apple declines as Huawei ascends) Maybe, maybe not? We’ll see if this goes well as planed. Easie…
> Maybe, maybe not? We’ll see if this goes well as planed. Easier said than done. My understanding is that China's manufacturing supply chain is so well-developed that companies like Apple don't think they even have a choice except build their stuff there. The only things they're missing are a few things at the very high end. If they lack a commitment to free markets, its conceivable that they could use that advantag…
Why is China smashing its tech industry?
311–320 of 401 posts
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#312Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most people, especially in the west, aren’t reading Chinese 5 year plans very closely.
What part of the 5 year plan outlined the strategy behind why the CCP went after DIDI? I'm genuinely curious and it might be more useful to link to the relevant parts. Some people might actually be interested in reading those and better understanding this.
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#313Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This hasn't been really put to the test yet, has it? Yes. Their textile industry has been gradually leaving for much of the past decade, as cheaper production exists in several other countries at this point. Textile dominance by China peaked around 10-15 years ago. They will lose labor cost sensitive industries to their cheaper competitors as their economy continues to climb, as labor costs continue to climb. It to…
Isn't that just the plan of every developing country? You start with textiles, then move up the value chain until you're a developed country and can pay for socialism or aircraft carriers or whatever you want.
If the US could automate low-value manufacturing through robotics and get a significant cost advantage over China and pull back much of the low-value manufacturing that it lost, while getting very little labor benefit in the process, it would still be ideal for numerous reason to achieve that outcome (tax base, deprive China of that value, onshore capital and technology investment, some construction & maintenance value, wider economic ecosystem, and so on).
China's big problem with this process is of course that they have 1.4 billion people. High-value replacement jobs for so many of their low-value manufacturing workers is something beyond difficult (you don't need 100 million software developers to build China's tech infrastructure; you don't need 10x the workers to build as many planes as Boeing or Airbus do). High-value manufacturing for example doesn't absorb labor like low-value manufacturing does. Their social welfare costs over the next 30-40 years will be extraordinary as their demographics rapidly shift toward being an older society. They're already into a workforce decline demographically, those aging & retiring workers begin to shift more to the liability column in terms of cost. They need their workforce employed and pumping tax dollars into the system. Automation is not China's friend, even if they're the ones doing it to themselves (if they had a critical national labor shortage, that would be a different matter).
If China were to take over all of Germany's auto manufacturing (obviously we're talking a huge share of the global auto market), how many jobs is that worth to China and how does that scope to their 1.4 billion context (Germany has a mere 83m people)? What does something like that do for their context. That's the essential China labor and automation problem going forward. They could conquer a lot of high value manufacturing and be worse off overall than they are now, unless they can somehow keep all of their people employed, keep most of their low-value manufacturing employment simultaneously. And if China did use 4x the labor to build the equivalent of Germany's auto output (say they absorb their labor oversupply that way), that then caps the ability for that labor to rise economically, the margins won't be there to support far higher incomes, which has serious social consequences in terms of stability in China long-term. China would probably need to own all high-value manufacturing globally to both keep their people employed and keep incomes rising like they have been.
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#314> Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. [1] Because cyberspace is ascendant over the old powers. Alas, sure, it's a pretty sad capitalist shell of what cyberspace could be, but it's still striding past the encumbered old giants. [1] https://www.eff.org/cyberspace-independ…
I miss being that optimistic. What happened?
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#315Earlier quoted context omitted.
China is never going to attempt to do such a stupid thing as invade Australia thousands of kilometers away for resources. It's much simpler, cheaper and faster to simply import the ores via land from Asia. Which is one of the core reasons for the BRI.
Throughout all of recorded history there has yet to be a superpower or empire that didn't do incredibly stupid things, courtesy of over-estimating its position and power. Modern China will not be an exception. They'll overreach repeatedly just as every other prior great power has. China considers Australia to be within its primary sphere of influence (a rapidly expanding sphere as far as China is concerned, as they p…
There is zero evidence that China is developing the capability of invading anyone except Taiwan for the next 25 years, and heaps of evidence to the contrary.
There is stupid and then there is literally physically impossible.
As far as Britain invading India, it's not like if they had just one day woke up and decided to do it. They built up the capability to invade colonies over literally centuries before being able to start the invasion around 1760. Meanwhile China didn't even start building that capability. They don't even plan to deploy stealth carrier craft, up until today their projects are for export only, nor blue water invasion craft, etc...
Anyways, it's almost impossible to invade Australia in 2021. Even the US would seriously struggle.
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#316China is not "smashing its tech industry". It's cracking down on private Internet companies that acquired too much power through network effects. This is completely consistent with CCP doctrine. Anything that central has to be state-owned. Xi declared this year that while digitization is important, “we must recognize the fundamental importance of the real economy… and never deindustrialize.” Right. China, remember, h…
Basically, its just antitrust which for a decade or two has not really been enforced in the US, which in turn might be a reason for many of the ills we see in economy and society today.
Even to take it down a notch, what has happened in the US is just boring. You almost can't have a conversation without one of 5 of the same companies coming up.
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#317Earlier quoted context omitted.
I listen to a lot of basketball podcasts and they are all , even the biggest national ones, trying to get people to gamble It seems like it's gotten a lot worse after COVID, though
There was a court decision recently (2 years ago?) that started to open up online gambling in the US. I follow soccer, and right after that mlssoccer.com started publishing vegas betting odds for all the games, and ESPN FC started using UK betting odds for EPL and EUFA competitions. They're definitely warming up Americans to the idea of normalizing betting and sports betting in the mainstream.
Keep in mind that black market sports betting is/was a multi billion dollar industry in the US so much of what you are seeing now is just more visible.
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#318Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure some countries have some of the same problems, I don’t disagree. However, the magnitude of the problem is 10x worse for China. Remember that China is still extremely poor - 600M lives on $100/month. And another 500M lives on $1000/month. All this is the party’s doing, and the people won’t forget it. So when things goes bad like it is now for China, it will go really bad for its dictator. Also other countries pro…
The 500M who live on $1k/month is a point of pride for the CCP; it's one of the legitimizers (probably the primary one) for its rule. China from 1980 onwards has produced the largest and most rapid wealth generation process in history. Now, you can come up with counterfactuals about why it would have happened anyway, and that's a pretty reasonable position to take. But acting like the $1k/month figure is somehow damn…
And the $1k/month folks are still having a hard time buying a $300k house to get married and have children, while taking care of the elderly parents. Meanwhile they know about the party princelings driving around in lamborghinis and buying fendi bags to show on social media. Oh yeah, the $100/month folks know too. And they know about the yearly flooding that kills.
You think people struggling now is going to remember the bad times before? Nope. That’s not how human natures like envy, anger and disgust works.
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#319Earlier quoted context omitted.
This article is more than your classic "the CCP is just making moves to solidify it's own power." The article claims the actions taken by China also represent real philosophies about what constitutes economic health. They don't want their greatest minds optimizing ad tech or finding tax loop holes.
There’s some truth to that, but call me cynical, when asked to guess whether a nation’s actions are primarily motivated by power seeking or philosophical principles, I usually assume power was the dominant factor.
I would think this is a smart move to not fall into this trap we have and kills two birds with one stone as far as a powerful rivals go.
Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?
#320Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or even more succinctly: financial value != value to society. Sometimes there's alignment, but very frequently there is not.
Yeah, the day I realized that the economic notion of value was weighted according to the wealth of those creating the demand, while the colloquial definition generally isn't, a lot of mismatched puzzle pieces fell into place. It was probably the single most successful update to my worldview (measured in terms of predictive power) that I have ever made.
Would you say that the value of feeding the orphan is zero?
Would you say that the value of chasing those asymptotic improvements is enormous?
Key observation: the market notion of value is very different from what people would colloquially agree is valuable.
Economists would say this is obvious. In one sense, it is -- we've all seen it in a million (hopefully) less-extreme incarnations. However, if you were to watch these economists closely, within 60 seconds of claiming it was obvious, they would kick out an argument that fudges the distinction between the economic notion of value and, well, value (the colloquial notion of value should really need no qualifier -- I applied one above simply to highlight that it had been hijacked).
That's the bit to pay attention to: substituting the concept of "economic value" for "value." This innocent-sounding approximation is actually a trojan horse containing extreme laissez-faire assumptions. With a mere slip of the tongue, they invite you (or you invite yourself!) to assume the conclusion of any economic rationalization, cloaking whatever cockeyed scheme the markets have cooked up today in a veil of artificial legitimacy.
Anyway, the day I plugged this into my worldview and forcibly separated the concept of economic value from the concept of value, something interesting happened. I previously had two competing views of the economy:
1. Gee, it sure seems to always act as a mercenary for the rich and powerful an awful lot.
2. It is a tool for revealing, weighing, subdividing, balancing, and reconciling collective preferences, both directly and transitively.
Before I separated the notion of "economic value" from the notion of "value" in my head, I was willing to accept that perhaps the hierarchies and mercenary behavior of #1 were merely emergent properties of an optimization process that truly did maximize value per #2. (Note -- I said "value," not "economic value." Did you catch that?) I saw this as a deeply legitimizing factor for economics in general, especially because I was keenly aware of failures in the colloquial definition of value (it's really bad at transitivity, for instance).
After I separated the notion of "economic value" from the notion of "value" in my head, I realized that the weighing factor made the optimization process of #2 equivalent to the mercenary process of #1. If a few people have all the money, then "weighing collective preferences" just means doing what those people want. To the degree that's currently the case, the optimization process is a silly ruse. It's a continuum, though. If everyone has some money, everyone gets represented in the decision making. If a large group of people -- say, "the middle class" -- has all the money, their collective interests will be well represented, but those on the bottom get drowned out. "Economic value" begins to diverge from "value." If a few people have all the money, they are the only ones who decide what's (economically) valuable, preferences of everyone else be damned. "Economic value" diverges completely from "value." In short, the divergence between what's valuable and what's economically valuable is proportional to the level of inequality.
The subtle nastiness of this situation is that the system runs away. You start with market forces that truly do represent the collective will of the people but as the wealth starts to concentrate more and more, the weighing factor increasingly disregards the voices on the bottom and pays more attention to those on top. Stocks go up, jobs disappear, rent increases, wages stagnate, poverty skyrockets -- apply the weighing factor and you see that none of these are bugs. They are all features. The predictive capability of our worldview has increased.
There is hope, though. Chaos is the enemy of skewed wealth distributions, of consolidated power, and ultimately of this divergence between value & economic value. There are exponentially more ways for wealth to be mixed than for it to be concentrated, so any kind of chaos can make it happen. Capitalism is anti-fragile -- it degenerates into feudal exploitative nastiness if you leave it alone, but if you stir the pot once in a while it truly is the marvel that economists paint it to be. How to do that? Well, in the happy case the chaos comes from growth. In the sad case, it comes from violence. Here's hoping the next big upset comes soon and from growth, rather than stagnation and eventual violence.