The UK’s delta surge is collapsing • Hacker News Board

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#231

Post by malandrew » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:05 PM UTC

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

And if we don't see a rise in hospitalizations that is any worse than a typical flu season, then it really doesn't matter that no one is testing.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#232

Post by cortic » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:05 PM UTC

rajin444 wrote: post #174

anthonyu wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certain viruses maintained their lethality as time went on. Smallpox was very lethal throughout time. Influenza lethality ebbs throughout history. I don't think we can or should depend on less-lethal, common-cold-like symptoms from Covid-19 at any point.

Is there a reason we shouldn't expect it to behave like most coroanviruses?

There actually is. The evolutionary selection pressure on most coronaviruses exists throughout its infectious stage. So in order to be more infectious for longer the coronavirus would become less symptomatic and so less serious.

But with C19 we are aggressively isolating people with symptoms. This focuses evolutionary selection pressure on the initial infectious stage. In order to be more infectious the virus increases viral load and shedding, causing more serious symptoms; which would be an evolutionary disadvantage, except isolation renders this disadvantage moot.

Also natural immunity general focuses on the nucleus of the virus, vaccine immunity is to the spike. So this forces mutations in different proteins, which has different results.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#233

Post by ericb » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:05 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #209

ericb wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From delta, we clearly have evidence that on a short timeframe a version with _wildly_ enhanced transmissibility has evolved. So speculating that changes will continue is reasonable. Additionally, we know that leaky vaccines and continued spread may cause greater pathogenicity. > https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou... So that's not wild speculation, it's a well-educated concern.

> we clearly have evidence that on a short timeframe a version with _wildly_ enhanced transmissibility has evolved. So speculating that changes will continue is reasonable. So let's be clear: the claim is that the virus can mutate, therefore, any particular outcome is equally likely? If I speculate that the virus will mutate into a hemorrhagic fever, like marburg or ebola, is that reasonable? If I speculate that the…

> the claim is that the virus can mutate, therefore, any particular outcome is equally likely?

No.

Did you actually read the study I linked?

Outcomes that enhance transmissibility are always being selected for. Things like higher viral load in the vaccinated.

That which spreads, spreads.

All things being equal, pathogenicity is neutral and gets down-selected when the pathogenicity conflicts with the ability to spread. But with two different populations, the feedback loop that of down-selective pressure against spread limitations due to pathogenicity may be broken. If it spreads in one population which requires characteristics that make it lethal in the other population.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#234

Post by aquadrop » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:05 PM UTC

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

Cases don't matter, hospital admissions also show sign of wave going down. And that doesn't depend on people's mood.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#235

Post by lucb1e » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:08 PM UTC

quenix wrote: post #229

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

Shouldn’t we see this reflected in hospital admissions?

Hospital admissions usually are a bit delayed, but yes, presumably people won't be holding off on being admitted to the hospital the way they would hold off on getting tested if GP is right. (Personally I'm not sure how many more people will now, as compared to a few weeks ago, decide that testing is more of a nuisance than helpful for protecting your loved ones, but then I'm not from the UK so what do I know.)

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#236

Post by rbirkby » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:08 PM UTC

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

ONS sampling disputes this.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#237

Post by nostromo » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:09 PM UTC

I don't see why we should care about number of cases in countries with freely available vaccines.

Disease (as reflected by hospital admissions) and death are what we care about. And those numbers are continuing to trend in the right direction.

The US media is just addicted to fear at this point. With a more boring/traditional president in the office and the covid panic waning, there is a news vacuum. And the media is trying to fill that vacuum with the delta variant. But you can calm your nerves just looking at the data yourself and not reading anything the media has to say.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#238

Post by lucb1e » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:11 PM UTC

rbirkby wrote: post #236

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

ONS sampling disputes this.

For anyone else not from the UK, ONS seems to be some official body doing some sort of, well, sampling.

Do you have a link to their current stats? I found this page[1] but it's not very accessible, not sure this is what you mean.

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#239

Post by kmlx » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:13 PM UTC

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

i think schools closing, euros ending, the nhs covid19 app ping and holidays starting are actually contributing to a lower number. scotland’s early school holiday should correlate at least part of this hypothesis.

a couple of q’s thou:

1. where do you report lateral flow tests? i do mine at home every day as my work sent out boxes of them.

2. if a lateral flow is positive, aren’t you supposed to do another and then a pcr test?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#240

Post by lucb1e » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 10:14 PM UTC

malandrew wrote: post #231

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

And if we don't see a rise in hospitalizations that is any worse than a typical flu season, then it really doesn't matter that no one is testing.

At least provide data if you're going to be like "it's just a flu". I'm willing to believe you mean well if you are only talking about people that are fully vaccinated 14+ days ago, but in general this sounds like an excuse.