The UK’s delta surge is collapsing • Hacker News Board

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#211

Post by christkv » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:39 PM UTC

flir wrote: post #177

infamouscow wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the point because the media (and their pharmaceutical advertisers) have framed everything in terms of vaccination, as if the human immune system is incapable of surviving COVID and it's variants. All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, despite all the fear porn that has been indoctrinated into the public over the last year and a half.

> All viruses get less lethal as time goes on Smallpox.

Smallpox luckily was a very stable DNA virus with a low mutation rate so it became possible to eradicate it.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#212

Post by dcolkitt » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:40 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #175

timr wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd imagine not too long after safe and effective vaccines are authorized for children under 12. Children are at exceptionally low risk from Covid. It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w In the US, 340 children under 17 have died from Covid. Total. During the same period, 187 have died from the flu, and over 51,000 children have di…

The reason to not want children to get COVID is that they will spread it to their parents and grandparents, who are more vulnerable. It’s not about whether the children will die, which everyone agrees is very low probability.

It’s an interesting point, and I’m relatively neutral on all the underlying empirical claims. But taking the assumptions as a given, doesn’t this violate the Hippocratic Oath?

Physicians are ethically forbidden from recommending a medical treatment that’s a harm to the patient, even if it’s in the interest of society.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#213

Post by nicoburns » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:41 PM UTC

mattlondon wrote: post #100

Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

IMO it was most likely the Euros football/soccer championship leading to a lot of mixing in crowded spaces among younger men who maybe didn't yet have the vaccine or we're from backrounds that are the sort that typically ignore this sort of thing.

Yep, I know someone who went to one of the Euro matches. They got covid, and they also said that the facebook groups for supporters were absolutely full of people who had also gotten covid.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#214

Post by phatfish » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:41 PM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #147

Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

The UK had a perfect storm of factors contributing to the severity of the Covid pandemic in that country: highly internationally mobile population, highly internally mobile population, a global travel hub, high population density, culture of close social mixing, no culture of mask wearing, colder climate leading to more indoor living, higher than average levels of elderly people, obese people, and of the ethnic group…

"Few if any had all of these factors."

The UK certainly doesn't have all of them for a start.

The lock-downs had high levels of compliance, just a lot of people moaning from their sofa (or whatever soapbox they have available, reach varies greatly, inversely with intelligence in many cases).

Population density, travel hub, obesity levels, delayed first lock-down would be my list.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#215

Post by dcolkitt » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:42 PM UTC

dahfizz wrote: post #63

mint2 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t it standard practice to set isolate if one has any highly contagious disease? Like the actual flu? Maybe it’s not a law but it sure is a sensical cultural norm and is just the polite thing to do as well.

> Maybe it’s not a law but it sure is a sensical cultural norm and is just the polite thing to do as well. OP is clearly talking about Alberta changing the laws about self-isolation. At some point, we are going to have to transition to using the same 'cultural norm' framework in dealing with Covid that we do with the flu.

Alternatively we could take this as a chance to re-frame some of the dysfunctional pre-existing cultural norms around respiratory infection. Especially the widespread notion that only wimps and slackers use sick days.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#216

Post by timr » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:43 PM UTC

munificent wrote: post #192

timr wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Death is not the only bad outcome to be avoided. And this is yet another illustration of the point I was making about fear, uncertainty and doubt: the Nature article didn't say that there is proof that children will have "long Covid"...it says that these particular studies didn't address the question . By this standard, anyone can make up any speculation of something that might happen to children someday, and we'll…

> By this standard, anyone can make up any speculation of something that might happen to children someday, and we'll use that speculation to demand fearful responses, indefinitely. You are also speculating, but simply about different things. You're speculating about harm from the vaccine, or about infection that don't happen. One way to avoid going down that speculation rabbithole is to defer to experts whose job it…

> You are also speculating, but simply about different things. You're speculating about harm from the vaccine,

No, I've provided evidence of that. It's not speculation: young boys are seeing disproportionate levels of vaccine-induced myocarditis

> One way to avoid going down that speculation rabbithole is to defer to experts whose job it is to weigh the pros and cons and crunch the numbers

Indeed, that's all I've done here.

> "The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) recommends vaccinating all children ages 12 and older who are eligible for the federally authorized COVID-19 vaccine."

We're talking about kids under 12.

> "CDC recommends everyone 12 years and older should get a COVID-19 vaccination to help protect against COVID-19."

We're talking about kids under 12.

> Experts, including those at Johns Hopkins, believe that the benefits of being vaccinated for COVID-19 outweigh the risks.

And other experts disagree with those experts (the ones I linked to, above). Now what?

That's the problem with blind appeals to authority...you can always find another authority. I'm getting pretty tired of seeing news reporters credulously using the phrase "experts say", and applying no critical thought to what they're actually saying.

In this case, you can find legitimate "experts" on both sides of the debate, and both deserve to be heard.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#217

Post by dcolkitt » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:44 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #202

majormajor wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The numbers I've seen are that death rate per capita has been lowering California than Florida so far, so while I think investigation should be done about about "were the outcomes so much better to justify whatever additional cost[0]" I haven't seen anything suggesting that public health measures haven't had any effect. We should, of course, also wait until things have actually settled down and we don't keep having m…

Florida also has a lot more residents in the vulnerable 65+ age group. So all else being equal we would expect Florida to have a much higher death rate.

On the flip side, Florida has year round warm weather and sunshine. Not only does that sanitize viral particles, but it makes it easier to move socialization outdoors.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#218

Post by AndrewBissell » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:44 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #92

anyonecancode wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Children are at exceptionally low risk from Covid. Let's hope the die keep rolling up to that result with each succeeding variant!

Could say the same about the flu, no? How do you think the flu got so deadly in 1918? Far more deadly than Covid by the way.

It was actually the perverse effects on viral selection created by World War I. The relatively mild first wave turned into a deadly second wave because soldiers who became mildly ill stayed put in the trenches, while those who had severe cases were put on trains and sent to crowded field hospitals, where they spread the more lethal variants.

If they simply suppress symptoms without reducing transmission, the current vaccines being administered may have a similar perverse evolutionary effect (although at least they're not actively selecting for worse strains).

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#219

Post by adventured » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:47 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #204

adventured wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Given the enormous US Covid outbreak, the US is likely not far away. We're at 70% adult vaccination and had a minimum of 100 million prior Covid infections. Also throw in tens of millions of people that likely have natural immunity to Covid. The biggest question with Delta is going to be…

If the forever-COVID reality for 95+% of the population is "you really, really ought to get that annual booster shot" (instead of "get the flu shot iff it's convenient"), that's not actually so terrible. If it becomes century-long endemic in the population, kids are exposed to it, likely creating a productive exposure-related immune reaction until they're old enough to get an mRNA vaccine.

Definitely. I don't think it's terrible at all given the alternative is tens or hundreds of thousands of additional people dying from Covid per year in the US. I guess we'll soon see the extent to which the public can be convinced to get booster shots every year. The governments of the world will have their jobs cut out for them, there will be a lot of resistance to forever Covid vaccinations as time goes on (and very lucrative for big pharma; Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna are going to make a stupid amount of money over the next few years).

What will be interesting to find out in the near future, is if high vaccination rates + prior infections reduce Covid deaths below, say, 50k people in the US every year, or whether we're forever stuck with a sizable population killer no matter what (short of implementing elaborate forever cultural systems of lockdown; as in, those counter measures will have to become ingrained deeply into the culture, accepted and automatic). The next decade is going to be very weird and interesting on that front.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#220

Post by nostrademons » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:48 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #187

nostrademons wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The herd immunity threshold changed with Delta, which I've heard has an R0 of 8-10 (compare 3.5-4.5 for the UK Alpha variant, and about 2.5 for the original strain). Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Probably Delta will blow through literally all th…

> It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Given the enormous US Covid outbreak, the US is likely not far away. We're at 70% adult vaccination and had a minimum of 100 million prior Covid infections. Also throw in tens of millions of people that likely have natural immunity to Covid. The biggest question with Delta is going to be…

U.S. is only at 50% fully-vaccinated, with several states in the high 30s to 40s. I could believe 70% with at least one shot but haven't seen any statistics to that effect; it doesn't matter much since Delta is still pretty dangerous to partially-vaccinated people. We had 35M recorded COVID cases; I'd believe about a 2:1 undercount, so about 70M total cases (~22%). Vaccines + previous cases was likely past herd immunity for the original variant (hence why cases dropped dramatically after vaccines came out), but with Delta's increased herd immunity threshold we should expect another 50-70M cases within the next few weeks.