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Why is China smashing its tech industry?

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Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#251

Post by lasagnaphil »

tablespoon wrote: post #243
lasagnaphil wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's the hubris China is currently having: as they've grown stricly because of the reliance of export-led growth, they are now dependent on the global economic order as much as the US is (for its import-led growth). And the ones that initially built the factories in China, can always pack up and move to a different country. So global corporations are now kind of "cycling through" a list of alternate underde…

> I think that's the hubris China is currently having: as they've grown stricly because of the reliance of export-led growth, they are now dependent on the global economic order as much as the US is (for its import-led growth). Honestly, I think the PRC's hubris is more than matched by the US's (and Western world's). They're still overconfident from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and seem to think the chips will i…

> Honestly, I think the PRC's hubris is more than matched by the US's (and Western world's).

Yes, I still definitely agree with that one. US’s hubris is the undeniably the largest in the world.

> I think it's ultimately the PRC's goal to have domestic champions replace those global corporations in the global economy (e.g. Apple declines as Huawei ascends)

Maybe, maybe not? We’ll see if this goes well as planed. Easier said than done.

> I don't think the PRC is as stupid as the US was, and will not allow those companies to "pack up and move" to the degree it's disruptive to their ability to provide an unmatched manufacturing supply chain.

The point is, companies are already doing this. You’ll be surprised how much conglomerates like Samsung has already taken production out of China.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#252

Post by goodpoint »

jjoonathan wrote: post #39
tablespoon wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or even more succinctly: financial value != value to society. Sometimes there's alignment, but very frequently there is not.

Yeah, the day I realized that the economic notion of value was weighted according to the wealth of those creating the demand, while the colloquial definition generally isn't, a lot of mismatched puzzle pieces fell into place. It was probably the single most successful update to my worldview (measured in terms of predictive power) that I have ever made.

This is economy "101": market are influenced my market forces. The stronger a player is, the more it can influence a market.

AKA: you vote with your wallet but some people vote 0 times, some 1, some can cast one million times - if you do the math.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#253

Post by [deleted] »

adventured wrote: post #213
majormajor wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “we must recognize the fundamental importance of the real economy… and never deindustrialize.” This hasn't been really put to the test yet, has it? What's the cost of labor delta compared to the places where outsourcing from China would be attractive currently?

> This hasn't been really put to the test yet, has it? Yes. Their textile industry has been gradually leaving for much of the past decade, as cheaper production exists in several other countries at this point. Textile dominance by China peaked around 10-15 years ago. They will lose labor cost sensitive industries to their cheaper competitors as their economy continues to climb, as labor costs continue to climb. It to…

[deleted]

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#254

Post by rakmos »

pm90 wrote: post #142
rakmos wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You missed the giant gaping time sink that is the video game industry. I also think including this in the discussion will, perhaps, emphasize the nuance of what I believe you're indirectly referencing -- the economics of how humans choose to spend their time (sometimes referred to as the "Attention Economy"). I believe literally optimizing for something such as GDP fails to take into account freedom / liberty which i…

The video game industry is one of the key factors to the success of the US technology industry. Some of the most innovative software is written by game developers. As we move into a future where AR/VR and digital worlds will become commerce hubs, the US is arguably incredibly well set up to take advantage of it. Video game bashing seems like another moral panic to me. People are spending more time playing video games…

Just to clarify, I brought up the gaming industry to highlight the nuance of the discussion and am in no way advocating for bashing it.

As you have articulated, innovation tends to manifest when humans spend their attention on things that also further drive the demand for their attention.

The point being that the context here is significantly more gray than black / white.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#255

Post by magwa101 »

Power, that's why China is smashing it's tech industry. In the US the industry, as a whole, has a massive influence on politics, culture and society. In China that is a non starter for the government. It is about maintaining power and nothing else.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#256

Post by steve_adams_86 »

lucasyvas wrote: post #113
Mizza wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hijacking this comment a bit, but I haven't watched real TV in a very long time but have been tuning in again because of the Olympics and Jeopardy. I'm seeing an incredible amount of ads for companies that let you gamble real money on your phone. Sometimes it's back to back to back to back commercials for online app casinos. This seems really dangerous and a sign of a tragically unhealthy and predatory economy - I ca…

I live in Canada and noticed these same ads - what is this garbage? It seemed insanely predatory and unethical. I've never seen anything like this in my life and had the exact same reaction.

I realized these things must be heavily invested in and/or making a ton of money if they can afford so many Olympic ad spots. I hope it's investment money that's being pissed away on ad spots, but my fear is that these kinds of apps are very successful and really raking it in.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#257

Post by Apocryphon »

bennysomething wrote: post #225
neutronicus wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also think it's wrong to assume that the example of the Soviet Union proves anything. Maybe Free Markets were the best you could do with the quantitative decision-making tools available to Stalin, and maybe central planning with modern AI/ML/Operations Research techniques would be more successful than a free-market approach. Or maybe, the Soviet Union would have done just fine if there were no United States trying…

The violence and suppression in the Soviet union started immediately. Trying to control the economy from the centre requires individuals give up choice not just in what they buy, but where they work. As troksky said "In a country where the sole employer is the State, opposition means death by slow starvation. The old principle: who does not work shall not eat, has been replaced by a new one: who does not obey shall n…

Wasn't the rise of fascism in Germany directly caused by crippling and humiliating terms levied at Versailles

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#258

Post by goodpoint »

bennysomething wrote: post #87
tablespoon wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who's "value to society" people's values vary that's why we have markets so people can decide what they value by deciding to buy it. That's a difficult question to answer generally, however it's also clearly not one that markets "solve." That's easy to see with the example of addictive drugs (which the market shows can be very profitable), unless you're willing to argue there's social value in destroying many peopl…

The point I'm trying to make is people often use the term "value to society" like it's an answered question. We know it's not answered as that people's values vary. Centrally deciding what is useful has proven to be disastrous (see the Soviet Union and every other centrally planned economy). Free markets allow us to express our values at an individual level rather than having an authority deciding what to value.

> Free markets allow us to express our values at an individual level rather than having an authority deciding what to value.

This is not correct. The authority is there, it's just less visible.

Market forces are extremely unequal: a small percentage of humanity, e.g. 0.1% influence 90% of the value of the housing market in all popular cities in developed countries.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#259

Post by techbio »

wombatmobile wrote: post #122
techbio wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you expand on this insight about weighting value and its predictive power or share a source?

Economists and markets define the value of something as whatever someone will pay for it today. Successful parents and sage founders define value differently. They don't see dollars. They see sense.

This is the definition of value I am familiar with--whatever the buyer will pay.

I am unsure what colloquial definition GP refers to as the counterpoint. Surely you aren't both suggesting sense and dollars are non-overlapping?

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#260

Post by epicureanideal »

throw_m239339 wrote: post #145
danjac wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll bet you could pick up a random op-ed from a 1960s Readers' Digest and someone would be making the argument that Americans spend too much time watching TV and pouring their creative energies into advertising, cosmetics and pop records while the Soviets are conquering outer space and South East Asia.

The big difference here is that US manufacturing didn't over rely on the soviet back then, nor where they massively buying US bonds... What's the equivalent of Shenzen in US?

Interestingly, despite not having large, obvious, centralized manufacturing hubs, the US is not far behind China in overall manufacturing output, despite putting far less effort into it.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor...

US is at 18% of global manufacturing vs China's 20%, but the US only gets 12% of it's overall GDP from manufacturing compared to China's 27%, and with about half the percentage of it's workforce (with a much smaller workforce).

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