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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

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Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#121

Post by glorppe »

jkhdigital wrote: post #110
glorppe wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While this is a literal interpretation of all-cause mortality from the paper, I’m not sure this is the right take away. There was such a dramatic reduction in overall cases in the vaccination group that deaths are probably more statistical noise in both groups than being tied to covid one way or another. Currently deaths and cases have diverged dramatically in the population and this might be more indicative of the r…

In this study the vaccine reduced Covid-19 infection rates by like 90%, and essentially eliminated severe cases. This is great! But the same number of people died in each group. So vaccines do not reduce Covid-19 mortality, period. Does this mean vaccines are a waste of time? No, of course not! It just means we should be precise and correct in the claims we make based on statistics, and not fudge them to say things t…

I don’t follow the logical leap. It’s clear the paper doesn’t demonstrate a difference, you’re right.

I do think it’s disingenuous to say that the vaccine categorically doesn’t prevent deaths, if it can prevent infections that would lead to deaths, that’s a good outcome. Additionally, the real world performance in the general population is showing a massive divergence in deaths and cases in elderly populations after the coverage of vaccines. That may be from some other variable and not vaccines, but I’m not sure that I would be able to suggest an alternative cause.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#122

Post by aristophenes »

felipellrocha wrote: post #102
arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

> Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. We don't know how much, though. There are cases in which vaccine performs better than a natural infection, there are cases in which the vaccine performs worse than natural infection. Without time for a study, it's impossible to know where we lie with Covid.

Without time for a study, wouldn’t it make sense to assume the most common thing, that a natural infection provides more immunity than the vaccine? Taking the line of reasoning where we assume the worst case scenario until proven otherwise, would it be reasonable to assume long term medical issues from the vaccinations?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#123

Post by basch »

colordrops wrote: post #91
timr wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd imagine not too long after safe and effective vaccines are authorized for children under 12. Children are at exceptionally low risk from Covid. It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w In the US, 340 children under 17 have died from Covid. Total. During the same period, 187 have died from the flu, and over 51,000 children have di…

I'm curious why this comment is being downvoted. Anyone wish to comment?

If I had to guess (and maybe I shouldnt be speaking as I didnt downvote), its a combination of "It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts" followed by unsubstantiated "compelling evidence that children are at greater risk from the vaccines than the virus."

The "time to stop with fear" and to stop catering to "anxious adults" can equally apply to this persons crusade to not vaccinate children. A mild mannered moderate can both not be scared of their children having a severe covid reaction AND get their child a jab when its available, if risk assessment reveals there to be benefit.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#124

Post by spookthesunset »

neves wrote: post #98
danenania wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh fun: the game where everyone puts their pet biases forward in an attempt to explain the behavior of a poorly understood complex system. It reminds me of the financial news. "Commodities markets are spooked as backlash to latest Justin Bieber video mounts!" In all seriousness, apart from the vaccination rate and strictly enforced lockdowns, I have yet to see an explanation for cases going up or down in a particular…

There's a lot of evidence about what worked what didn't work. Dozens of countries and well organized societies responded well to the pandemic.

> There's a lot of evidence about what worked what didn't work

If that was true why can I take the population adjusted graphs for any interesting statistic, overlay several countries or states, and see the shape of them all is basically the same?

I would assert that for any of these non-pharmaceutical interventions to have been worthwhile the effect on such charts should be absolutely noticeable to any layman on the street. If you need PhD level math to tell a country who "did it right" apart from a country who "did it wrong"... it probably means that it wasn't worth "doing right".

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#126

Post by moron4hire »

bee_rider wrote: post #77
ls612 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For vaccinated people covid is not at all like the actual flu, it is very much a cold at worst. That is the kind of disease I and the poster above me were referencing

For unvaccinated people it can be quite a bit worse than the flu. The degree of empathy afforded those folks seems to be a subject of active debate I guess...

When this all started, there was a blase attitude towards obese people being at higher risk for severe cases from a lot of people. There was a lot of argument about whether being obese was a "choice", worth ignoring the class of people as it being "their own fault".

Now, whatever you think about the obesity issue, I think we can definitely agree that there is no way 40% of the US adult population have some kind of complications preventing then from getting vaccinated. For the vast majority of people, not getting vaccinated is definitely a choice they made, and one that can easily be corrected.

And let's be real, here. We all know who these people are. They're the same people who bitched about wearing masks and not being able to go get a haircut at their immediate convenience. They voted for Trump and they stormed the capital, then tried to call it a tourist visit.

So no, I really don't have a lot of empathy for them, considering how little was afforded to me and my family.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#127

Post by dtech »

jkhdigital wrote: post #110
glorppe wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While this is a literal interpretation of all-cause mortality from the paper, I’m not sure this is the right take away. There was such a dramatic reduction in overall cases in the vaccination group that deaths are probably more statistical noise in both groups than being tied to covid one way or another. Currently deaths and cases have diverged dramatically in the population and this might be more indicative of the r…

In this study the vaccine reduced Covid-19 infection rates by like 90%, and essentially eliminated severe cases. This is great! But the same number of people died in each group. So vaccines do not reduce Covid-19 mortality, period. Does this mean vaccines are a waste of time? No, of course not! It just means we should be precise and correct in the claims we make based on statistics, and not fudge them to say things t…

2 people in the placebo group died with a covid infection and 1 in the vaccinated group. That is way to little data to even remotely make such a bold claim.

Or, if I follow your flawed logic, Covid vaccines reduce mortality by 50%!

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#128

Post by mattlondon »

gpt5 wrote: post #115
mattlondon wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO it was most likely the Euros football/soccer championship leading to a lot of mixing in crowded spaces among younger men who maybe didn't yet have the vaccine or we're from backrounds that are the sort that typically ignore this sort of thing.

Would you also blame the Euro football for the rising Delta cases everywhere in the western world?

yes because the matches were all-over europe so same people who were in a packed pub a few days earlier were now on a plane to some other european country to watch the next match.

further, the borders remained open so people mixed at home and then went on holiday/visited family etc. UK is a major international transport hub and also has a large population of Indian descent so we likely "imported" delta from India relatively early as a result and then likely helped seed it in other western nations.

They should have put India on the red list several weeks earlier than they did when it was obvious for anyone to see what was going on, but they delayed for unknown reasons

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#129

Post by stefan_ »

arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

This is an exposition on Dunning Kruger. What is it going to be, herd immunity or surges? Can't be both.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#130

Post by [deleted] »

colordrops wrote: post #91
timr wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd imagine not too long after safe and effective vaccines are authorized for children under 12. Children are at exceptionally low risk from Covid. It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w In the US, 340 children under 17 have died from Covid. Total. During the same period, 187 have died from the flu, and over 51,000 children have di…

I'm curious why this comment is being downvoted. Anyone wish to comment?

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