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Why is China smashing its tech industry?

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Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#221

Post by TheDong »

itmayno wrote: post #201
mcguire wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes the assumption that "innovation" is consumer facing internet technology.

Alibaba isn’t just consumer facing internet technologies, look up the vast b2b stuff it does. And other types of companies have been smashed as well like evergrande or Wanda. Also, do you really think innovation will come from state companies? In that case, why didn’t 1980 China or 1980 Russia thrive?

> Also, do you really think innovation will come from state companies? In that case, why didn’t 1980 China or 1980 Russia thrive?

You need a stronger argument to prove that state-associated companies can't innovate.

There's also plenty of counter examples too. The internet itself was largely created via DARPA, a US state-sponsored research agency. Ditto for the space station and most other space-related achievements prior to SpaceX.

I think the more nuanced, and boring, view is that a well functioning state can innovate, and so can well functioning private companies.

This comment probably isn't the place for it, but I do think for-profit companies will tend towards different sorts of innovation than for-the-public-good government agencies... but yeah, not for this comment.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#222

Post by viscanti »

xchaotic wrote: post #169
lasagnaphil wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the headline's a bit misleading, but what you're saying is almost exactly what the article is talking about. (The article immediately refutes the notion of "smashing its tech industry" right away)

but they're 'smashing' the likes of Ant Financial who were doing predatory, unsecured lending on an unprecedented scale. So IMO the thesis of smashing 'Internet' companies is incorrect - they're just making sure economy doesn't go into bubble territory (lending fuels spending) and the likes of Jack Ma, who are detached from the party don't get too much power/money.

Or Didi who had the nerve to IPO outside of China on the NYSE on a date the CCP thought was too close to a party anniversary.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#223

Post by clipradiowallet »

Here's a conspiracy theory...China is not smashing its' tech industry. The CCP could be repositioning [financially] within the sector. Step 1 is to add regulation - which depresses market prices and gives the state more power. Step 2 is to swoop in and buy as much as is available at the [newly] depressed prices.

It's unlikely, but in their position it's what I would want to do.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#224

Post by aoleinik »

caeril wrote: post #11

> China may simply see things differently. It’s possible that the Chinese government has decided that the profits of companies like Alibaba and Tencent come more from rents than from actual value added Excellent observation, and I hope, for China's sake, that this is the reason. The United States is likely in for a long-term rude awakening when it finally realizes that an economy predicated on negative-value-add acti…

Out of curiosity, what _should_ the US be working on? The only two things I can think of that really needs more man hours is space travel and quantum computing, but those fields are generally far from being revenue generating and require mountains of initial investment.

I agree that ad tech and social media are net negatives, but what are the alternatives? A dead economy, where most of the money circulates on necessities?

Not asking this sarcastically or rhetorically - genuinely want some good insight on what people who say the current direction of the US is poor think the direction should be.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#225

Post by bennysomething »

neutronicus wrote: post #120
tablespoon wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know the point you're trying to make; it's ubiquitous . The point I'm making is that "free markets" won't answer the question either, and often result in things that are obviously against "value to society." One little thing I find annoying is that whenever someone points out some issue with free markets, someone always seems to reply with something that amounts to "have you considered free markets?" Whatever the p…

I also think it's wrong to assume that the example of the Soviet Union proves anything. Maybe Free Markets were the best you could do with the quantitative decision-making tools available to Stalin, and maybe central planning with modern AI/ML/Operations Research techniques would be more successful than a free-market approach. Or maybe, the Soviet Union would have done just fine if there were no United States trying…

The violence and suppression in the Soviet union started immediately. Trying to control the economy from the centre requires individuals give up choice not just in what they buy, but where they work.

As troksky said "In a country where the sole employer is the State, opposition means death by slow starvation. The old principle: who does not work shall not eat, has been replaced by a new one: who does not obey shall not eat."

Who gets to decide what is allocated to whom? Giving these starting conditions it's no wonder in every single attempt at this has resulted in a death toll in the millions. Nothing the USA did from the outside forced these countries to starve, imprison and murder their own people. Why didn't this happen in the USA? Or the rest of the west? Why only in regimes that tried to control more aspects of an individuals life then ever attempted before? Most of the argument I am making is a poor rehash of "the road to serfdom".

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/299215.The_Road_to_Serfd...

Blaming the west for the terrors of Soviet Russia is as mistaken as blaming the allies for what the Nazis did in Europe.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#226

Post by adventured »

onepointsixC wrote: post #212
mountainb wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China produces more steel in a month than the US does in an entire year of all types. US steel production is around 7% of Chinese steel production. Could the US ramp up steel production etc. on a crash basis under war conditions? Yes, but the overall picture is not great, given that China could also ramp up its production under the same constraints.

China could not ramp up steel production because it imports the raw materials from far away, mostly from Australia. Most of the raw materials, including energy and even food are imported into China. None of those supply chains would be left untouched in a war.

And the first thing the US should do in the case of a large scale war involving China, is hand Australia nuclear weapons for its self-defense. It would guarantee an extraordinary cost if China were to decide to destroy Australia to try to annex their land for resource extraction. In the coming decades China will have the military capability to invade Australia, given China's rapid naval expansion. It's not a sure thing that the US could stop them. If China is cut off from their required resources, they'll invade somewhere as a response. Australia needs a plan for if all else fails, an ultimate deterrence to invasion (which France and Britain possess for similar deterrence reasons).

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#227

Post by lasagnaphil »

majormajor wrote: post #182
Animats wrote: post #150

China is not "smashing its tech industry". It's cracking down on private Internet companies that acquired too much power through network effects. This is completely consistent with CCP doctrine. Anything that central has to be state-owned. Xi declared this year that while digitization is important, “we must recognize the fundamental importance of the real economy… and never deindustrialize.” Right. China, remember, h…

> “we must recognize the fundamental importance of the real economy… and never deindustrialize.” This hasn't been really put to the test yet, has it? What's the cost of labor delta compared to the places where outsourcing from China would be attractive currently?

I think that's the hubris China is currently having: as they've grown stricly because of the reliance of export-led growth, they are now dependent on the global economic order as much as the US is (for its import-led growth). And the ones that initially built the factories in China, can always pack up and move to a different country. So global corporations are now kind of "cycling through" a list of alternate underdeveloped countries to build factories in, and keep going until the options are all exhausted. Some countries are quite receptive to this (like Vietnam, which is undergoing a similar transformation like South Korea and China had in the past), but some countries are not (like India, due to its complex cultural/political legacy it's hard for foreign companies to navigate through).

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#228

Post by celeritascelery »

DamnYuppie wrote: post #138

China saw how the tech companies in the USA have too much power to influence conversations. They want no part of that, they want absolute control and if they have to destroy part of their economy to make sure it happens then so be it.

I don’t get it. Why wouldn’t you just put them under your control? Now you have all that power.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#229

Post by thehappypm »

mountainb wrote: post #199
caeril wrote: post #11

> China may simply see things differently. It’s possible that the Chinese government has decided that the profits of companies like Alibaba and Tencent come more from rents than from actual value added Excellent observation, and I hope, for China's sake, that this is the reason. The United States is likely in for a long-term rude awakening when it finally realizes that an economy predicated on negative-value-add acti…

China produces more steel in a month than the US does in an entire year of all types. US steel production is around 7% of Chinese steel production. Could the US ramp up steel production etc. on a crash basis under war conditions? Yes, but the overall picture is not great, given that China could also ramp up its production under the same constraints.

Is it so impressive when you consider that the US has a population of about 20% China's? It's just one sector, of many many.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#230

Post by dnautics »

aoleinik wrote: post #224
caeril wrote: post #11

> China may simply see things differently. It’s possible that the Chinese government has decided that the profits of companies like Alibaba and Tencent come more from rents than from actual value added Excellent observation, and I hope, for China's sake, that this is the reason. The United States is likely in for a long-term rude awakening when it finally realizes that an economy predicated on negative-value-add acti…

Out of curiosity, what _should_ the US be working on? The only two things I can think of that really needs more man hours is space travel and quantum computing, but those fields are generally far from being revenue generating and require mountains of initial investment. I agree that ad tech and social media are net negatives, but what are the alternatives? A dead economy, where most of the money circulates on necessi…

To some degrees with those two things if you do it wrong, "just adding man hours" to those endeavors can slow progress, not accelerate it
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