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Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

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Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#151

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Starlink? But these companies (well, at least SpaceX) have their focus on making orbit cheap and sustainable, and pushing towards Mars colonization and asteroid mining. Those are engineering and logistics problems more than science problems, but I think they're very important.

Those are all ways to squander the Earth's limited resources while sounding forward thinking. Colonizing Mars will likely never happen, there is simply no upside: huge challenges, with no interesting resources. The Earth has plenty of space, we're limited by resources, and there are no interesting resources on Mars. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that we'll have a colony outside the solar system before a colony…

> The Earth has plenty of space, we're limited by resources, and there are no interesting resources on Mars

There are new discoveries on Earth even today, after hundreds of thousands year of mankind history. What make you think we have known all we need to know about Mars?

> I wouldn't be surprised to find out that we'll have a colony outside the solar system before a colony on Mars.

Mars is a 8 month journey. Alpha Centauri, the nearest star, is a 296,000 year journey using the current propulsion technology. We'll have colonized every single colonizable planets in the Solar System before then.

> it's much more interesting from a profit perspective than a future of humanity perspective.

Future of humanity depends on advance in science. Space exploration has always been a major force that drives science forward, asteroid mining included. So many examples to list, but just to pick one:

https://astronomy.com/magazine/ask-astro/2019/06/how-do-scie...

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#152
post #137

Maybe BO will one day actually do something noteworthy on their own, rather than trying to prevent SpaceX from moving ahead because they actually do things. Bezos also recently tried to block Starlink's modified expansion plans[1] saying it was unfair to his conceptual Project Kuiper (conceptual because it doesn't yet physically exist vs Starlink which is in beta service and expanding). Amazon isn't even using BO to…

> Maybe BO will one day actually do something noteworthy on their own, rather than trying to prevent SpaceX from moving ahead because they actually do things.

You don't consider being the first to successfully launch and land a VTOL booster noteworthy [1]?

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/11/the-f...

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#153
post #112

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> They have some achievements to show. New Shepard was the first to land vertically. That's not nothing. Sorry, but the McDonnell Douglas DC-X did the rocket straight up & down vertical landing in 1993. New Shepard frankly wasn't particularly different. It went higher and longer sure, but for orbital rocketry the challenge isn't height so much as speed and everything that comes with that. The Falcon 9 flight 20 at th…

> silly little PR stunt The media has been grossly unfair to Bezos. What Bezos actually did was risk his own neck in the first manned flight of a totally new rocket design. It was a massive display of faith in his engineering team. Musk didn't do that. Branson didn't do that - and earlier test pilots of his craft died. As for the BO rocket being totally automated, that was the original intent of the Mercury missions,…

The public has been primed too much by the media to literally spew hate like there is no tomorrow for certain individuals. On the right wing - it is Bill Gates, on the left wing it is Bezos/Elon. They got their clicks and ad revenue.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#154
post #63

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They have some achievements to show. New Shepard was the first to land vertically. That's not nothing. BE-4 has been delayed, true, but if it were looking like a failure, ULA would have dropped them a long time ago. I think 2022 will clear up lots of things for everyone. SLS, BE-4, New Glenn, etc... Till then there is no sense of dooming anything.

Blue Origin arguably did the first verticals landing from “space” as defined by 100km of altitude in 2015. Though the lunar lander is perhaps the more famous vertical landing from space in 1969, following earlier soft landings like Luna 9 1966, and a lot of earlier VTVL rocket research at the time. SpaceX started on powered decent in 2011 achieving it’s first landing from an actual orbital space flight in 2015. I don…

> SpaceX started on powered decent in 2011 achieving it’s first landing from an actual orbital space flight in 2015

I'm not sure how important/big the difference is, but IIRC spaceX only lands boosters that never actually reach orbital velocity. They help boost things into orbital velocity, sure, but the things that land under powered flight never actually reach orbital velocity, right?

I'm aware that the crew dragon was supposed to do this, but AFAIK it never has.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Slow and steady wins the race. I'm not counting them out, Bezos is so immensely wealthy that if he wants Blue Origin to succeed then it will succeed.

That is like saying that the meek shall inherit the earth - or what is left of it when the bold have taken all they wanted. Slow and steady is just that, slow. There is a place for it, e.g. when refining an established practice like mining or internal combustion engines. Commercial space exploration is a place where rapid advances can be made by visionary explorers, only once you can buy an off-the-shelf space miniva…

The actual saying is closer to "the disciplined shall inherit the earth".

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NASA is a taxpayer boondoggle. The faster we can transition wasting tax dollars on it to the private sector and dismantle the agency the better.

Hell no. Space exploration and expansion should absolutely NOT be in the hands of corporations but an government funded entity that contracts out work as we have now. If every government program should be profitable.

I'd vote for NASA + private enterprise combo similar to DARPA programs. Leadership in the gov, execution in the private industry.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#157
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an incredibly small minded perspective. Difficult challenges require new technologies, new processes and new ways of thinking. More specifically, technologies developed through the race to land on the moon (and space flight generally) are integral to almost every aspect of 'your' life and define what most of us consider human flourishing. Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_spinoff_technologies#:~:t..…

These companies are just trying to shoot rockets further then each other. They're not science pr research companies. We're not learning more about space and the universe thanks to the them. What spin off tech have we gotten from them?

Reusable rockets with massive cargo capacity is just one example. SpaceX equipped rockets will soon be able to carry around 100 tons of cargo to any place on earth in less than an hour; massive implications for disaster response.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40865/rocket-delivery-...

Your whole perspective is a bit jarring. At any point in history - on the precipice of technological innovation - someone could have said 'Why go further, what's the point?' And that's just it, your limited ability to see the positive implications shouldn't define where progress goes. If we stopped at the horse-drawn carriage we would have missed the fire truck. If we stopped at Arpanet we would have missed every unforeseen positive associated with the internet today.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#158
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything SpaceX is successfully launching today was similarly delayed during development. It's too early to write off Blue Origin, especially since Bezos just got involved in it full time.

Bezos was never a scientist, engineer or dreamer. He is an entrepreneur, business savvy guy. Its about the dollar for him (which I'm not saying is a bad thing), versus for Elon it is a dream/passion to get to Mars.

His high school valedictorian speech was about going to space: https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-space-travel-life....

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#159
post #19
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US won’t allow that for now because of external competition from China and Russia. That would result in the US losing the current Space Race. EDIT: Probably India as well If SpaceX were Russian, Indian, or Chinese, the US would shit its pants.

There is no "current space race" as far as the US is concerned. Americans put a man on the moon fifty years ago, and no one is worried that China or Russia are going to "gain the high ground" and nuke Washington from orbit. No one cares.

Here are a few links for you from the last couple of months:

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA943-1.html

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/nato-leaders-...

https://warontherocks.com/2021/07/updating-space-doctrine-ho...

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-space-forces-seeks-allies...

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-nations-commit-to-the-...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/world/asia/china-russia-s...

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/china/china-us-space-race...

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/06/the-us-military-is-s...

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#160
So there have been two stories for me recently that just show how important and powerful leadership is. Perhaps more importantly, it seems like the culture that develops with bad or absent leadership can be really hard to correct to the point where it seems like cleaning house and starting over is the only way forward.

The first is obviously Blue Origin. Some important points:

- SpaceX was founded in 2002. Blue Origin in 2000;

- Blue Origin may have achieved a vertical landing first but it was for a rocket that basically went straight up and came straight down as opposed to going near-orbital speeds (Mach 30), which is unquestionably much more technically challenging;

- While SpaceX had delays in shipping (eg Falcon Heavy, Crew Dragon) the track record of the Falcon 9 at this point is undeniable;

- Bezos made an extremely odd (to me) choice for leader of Blue Origin: the former CEO of Honeywell (to the point that I've read insiders call the company "Blue Honeywell"). The result seems to be that things are done incredibly slowly and the delays keep piling up. I wonder if the company is now so risk-averse they'd rather do nothing than risk doing something that will fail. Now compare that to SpaceX's Starship prototypes.

Whatever magic touch Bezos has hasn't rubbed off on Blue Origin and I honestly think they're at risk of sliding into irrelevance.

So the second example is of course (Activision) Blizzard. We actually have a good data point in how another company, Square Enix, handles Final Fantasy XIV (vs Blizzard and World of Warcraft). Some interesting points:

- Blizzard doesn't engage with the WoW community. Compare this to Square Enix explaining the issues and timelines for bringing new servers online to alleviate queues;

- It seems like Square Enix is still player-focused whereas all of Activision is clearly financially-focused at this point;

- The horrific allegations against Blizzard fit into a narrative that Blizzard leadership and employees disdain their audience and almost certainly don't even play their own game;

I could go on.

So the reason I bring this up in the context of Blue Origin is because to me there's some striking similarities here. Blizzard is run by non-gamers. Blue Origin is run by Wall Street financial types not rocket men (or even engineers). Boeing is another data point in how horribly that can go wrong.

A fish rots from the head they say. If leaders want to claim credit and get the rewards for good performance (eg Bobby Kotick's $150m bonus) then the buck stops with them with regards to the culture they've created or allowed to fester on their watch.

But just virtue signaling to the market by replacing the head of the company isn't enough at this point (in either case). The fish doesn't reverse the rot when the head is cut off. It's going to take cleaning house to save Blue Origin (or Blizzard).

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