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Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

arstechnica.com

101–110 of 259 posts

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#101
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blue Origin isn't vaporware. They have engines, they have rocket bodies, they have tooling, etc. But they are, apparently, firmly in development hell, with no public indication of trying to change that.

The definition of vapoware is things that are delayed continously after they should have been released. The BE-4 fits into that.

A project is not vaporware until it gets canceled without delivering.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#102
post #3

It's really a shame what has happened to Blue Origin. They've gone from a promising space startup to yet another purveyor of perpetual vaporware. Where is the BE-4 engine? Delayed, again and again. New Glenn, the rocket that could actually go into orbit? Same. So far their only functioning hardware (New Shephard) is, in effect, a glorified amusement park ride. Considering that SpaceX has actually made it to orbit mul…

It's telling that Bezos has chosen to take this fight to Washington DC - his only real hope is to kneecap SpaceX politically. It's not that Blue Origin lacks engineering know-how, it's that they brought in a ULA executive to run things and so he's running the ULA playbook - maximize profits by delaying things indefinitely to keep that taxpayer money flowing. Blue Origin wants SpaceX to play by its rules and slow to a crawl so they can compete. Elon Musk, for all his faults, wants to accomplish something and is personally driving things to get that done and is unwilling to settle for vanity wins and big talk to impress fellow billionaires at Davos. Unless Jeff can convince Elon to focus on salad fights over how high is up I'd say this competition is long over.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#103
post #3

It's really a shame what has happened to Blue Origin. They've gone from a promising space startup to yet another purveyor of perpetual vaporware. Where is the BE-4 engine? Delayed, again and again. New Glenn, the rocket that could actually go into orbit? Same. So far their only functioning hardware (New Shephard) is, in effect, a glorified amusement park ride. Considering that SpaceX has actually made it to orbit mul…

Blue Origin isn't vaporware. They have engines, they have rocket bodies, they have tooling, etc. But they are, apparently, firmly in development hell, with no public indication of trying to change that.

The point is that Blue Origin isn't going to have anything ready by 2023 which is the year the crewed Artemis 2 mission should get the go. They might not be vaporware, but they're still several years behind SpaceX.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#104
post #25
post #3

It's really a shame what has happened to Blue Origin. They've gone from a promising space startup to yet another purveyor of perpetual vaporware. Where is the BE-4 engine? Delayed, again and again. New Glenn, the rocket that could actually go into orbit? Same. So far their only functioning hardware (New Shephard) is, in effect, a glorified amusement park ride. Considering that SpaceX has actually made it to orbit mul…

Everything SpaceX is successfully launching today was similarly delayed during development. It's too early to write off Blue Origin, especially since Bezos just got involved in it full time.

Bezos was never a scientist, engineer or dreamer. He is an entrepreneur, business savvy guy. Its about the dollar for him (which I'm not saying is a bad thing), versus for Elon it is a dream/passion to get to Mars.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#105
SpaceX has two tried and tested orbital delivery systems and is making its typical iterate-and-explosions progress on a third. It is basically the only company doing this.

The idea NASA would plunk down money for imaginary spaceships is silly. They have their own one of those already.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#106
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forget orbit, SpaceX has paid for it's ISS contract about 3x in savings over Soyuz. Congress would be dumb to pick a new horse now.

> Congress would be dumb to pick a new horse now. You're not optimizing for the same outcomes as Congress. NASA is a jobs agency.

From 2011:

Robert Siegel: "As NPR's Peter Overby reports, Capitol Hill has always been deeply involved in NASA's activities, and sometimes seem to regard NASA as a jobs program, as well as a space program."

Overby: "This year [2011], according to federal contract data, NASA will buy goods and services in 396 of the 435 congressional districts."

https://www.npr.org/2011/07/20/138555781/congressional-suppo...

From 2019:

"NASA will often highlight the fact that its SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft support aerospace suppliers. For example, this agency website details the number of suppliers in every US state and says, 'Men and women in all 50 states are hard at work building NASA's Deep Space Exploration Systems to support missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.' There are 106 suppliers in Alabama, alone, according to NASA's site."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/03/an-alabama-represent...

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#107
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Congress would be dumb to pick a new horse now. You're not optimizing for the same outcomes as Congress. NASA is a jobs agency.

A 'jobs agency' that has produced a whole lot of technical advancements, maybe.

What advancements have its current flagship program (SLS) produced? Maybe they do produce some but congress clearly wants them to produce jobs not anything else.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is launching its own internet satellites into low orbit so their satellites will only burn up in a decade without boosting. If your argument is "don't progress or change in any way because something bad might happen" then I suspect you'll find few takers on this site.

Collisions in LEO launch debris in all orbits, they are not limited to LEO. I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX will turn out to be the reason we won't be able to explore space at all for a few hundred years.

>Collisions in LEO launch debris in all orbits, they are not limited to LEO.

How often? You'd need a pretty lucky collision to knock something into a higher stable circular orbit.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Space is expensive. Bezos is pumping 1 billion per year into the company and the blue origin proposal was for 13 billion. Even for Bezos that's not chump change.

All the more reason to cooperate and pool resources instead of duplicating effort.

One company works slow, the other company works fast.

Re: Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX

#110
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blue Origin was founded in 2000, SpaceX 2002. SpaceX achieved orbit in 2008. Blue Origin is still sub orbital yet planning on a moon mission. At this point Bezos might be better off starting over with a new team.

They have some achievements to show. New Shepard was the first to land vertically. That's not nothing. BE-4 has been delayed, true, but if it were looking like a failure, ULA would have dropped them a long time ago. I think 2022 will clear up lots of things for everyone. SLS, BE-4, New Glenn, etc... Till then there is no sense of dooming anything.

> New Shepard was the first to land vertically

Apollo LM was the first to land vertically.

> if it were looking like a failure, ULA would have dropped them a long time ago

That seems to be assuming that they have a choice. Given the fuel difference between AR-1 and BE-4, they've been committed to BE-4 for quite some time, no matter how much progress BO is doing (or not doing) on BE-4.

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