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Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

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Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in favor of changing the terminology from AI and ML to something along the lines of 'prediction model' so that the idea of machines 'thinking' is replaced with them 'predicting'. it's just easier for our mushy meat brains to think that AI and ML means that it'll lead to general AI or as I like to call it 'general purpose decision maker'. it's all about the language!

I like the term “data driven algorithm“. It makes it clear to everyone involved that what we’re doing is just adjusting an algorithm based on the data we have. No-one in their right minds would confuse that with building a true “A.I.”.

What about “data derived algorithm”? The algorithm itself isn’t really driven by data after it has been designed anymore.

Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#52
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are three entirely different groups at work here. The deepmind team etc type of group who actually know what they’re doing and the boundaries of what they are working with the “AI-washing” startups, corporate groups who know they are faking it and that what they’re doing is extremely limited the corporate project team types who are just doing random tool play and honestly don’t understand what they are doing or…

Where does Google Vision Cloud sit in your categorization? https://algorithmwatch.org/en/google-vision-racism/

First group.

You’re observing that they aren’t doing a perfect job, which is true, but my grouping isn’t related to perfection of results.

Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#53
post #44
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I also don't think the engineers working in this space are as out to lunch as the author seems to imply. Are you at all close to this space? It sounds you may be underestimating corporate politics and the lack of rigour and ethical thought with which these systems are applied. The example Cory puts on policing -- and the many other examples you can find in Evgeny Morozov's book or "The End of Trust" -- are soli…

My first thought was that I'm not the target audience of this article. I'm a ML practitioner. This seems more like an overstated opinionated wake up call to mgmt and sales people. Is not it?

If you are an ML practitioner and you think you're not part of the target audience, then you're probably part of the target audience.

Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#54
post #43

> It’s not sorcery, it’s “magic” – in the sense of being a parlor trick, something that seems baffling until you learn the underlying method, whereupon it becomes banal. I think part of the problem is the belief that human or animal intelligence is somehow more mystical. People who think like this will see an ML implementation solve a problem better and/or faster than a human and counter "well, it's just using statis…

>simple machines.

Ooof. Premed dropout here, so admittedly not an expert in human biology but this is a wild statement. A neuron is simple in the same way a transistor is simply a silicon sandwich doped with metals.

A parlor trick is something that once you understand, is straightforward to implement on your own. Are you arguing that anyone now or in the foreseeable future could simply recreate the abilities of a human? If so, what evidence could you show me to support that?

Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#55
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are three entirely different groups at work here. The deepmind team etc type of group who actually know what they’re doing and the boundaries of what they are working with the “AI-washing” startups, corporate groups who know they are faking it and that what they’re doing is extremely limited the corporate project team types who are just doing random tool play and honestly don’t understand what they are doing or…

Where does Google Vision Cloud sit in your categorization? https://algorithmwatch.org/en/google-vision-racism/

[deleted]

Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#56
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where does Google Vision Cloud sit in your categorization? https://algorithmwatch.org/en/google-vision-racism/

First group. You’re observing that they aren’t doing a perfect job, which is true, but my grouping isn’t related to perfection of results.

> The deepmind team etc type of group who actually know what they’re doing and the boundaries of what they are working with.

You claim that they "know what they are doing and the boundaries of what they are working with" -- and yet they recklessly make public a racist vision product?

Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brown is (165,42,42). You can argue about false precision, but the term “brown” has false precision as well. The likely variation in interpretations can be described by error bars. Your understanding of someone saying “brown” is informed entirely by statistical inference of your past experience with “brown”. Changing the representation of the names doesn’t matter, but attempting to understand the meaning behind the n…

What is quantitative in understanding the meaning of a name? We don't know that the brain runs on "numbers" (and no, it's no just like a "computer"). To respond to your edit: That is not brown... there is a whole science of color perception, have a look.

It’s not a computer, but it is quantified.

Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in favor of changing the terminology from AI and ML to something along the lines of 'prediction model' so that the idea of machines 'thinking' is replaced with them 'predicting'. it's just easier for our mushy meat brains to think that AI and ML means that it'll lead to general AI or as I like to call it 'general purpose decision maker'. it's all about the language!

I like the term “data driven algorithm“. It makes it clear to everyone involved that what we’re doing is just adjusting an algorithm based on the data we have. No-one in their right minds would confuse that with building a true “A.I.”.

To be frank: that very much does not make it clear to everyone involved. If you told the average Joe you had a “data driven algorithm” instead of “AI” you would likely get a blank stare in return.

Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)

#60
post #10

This article is mostly a straw man, while still containing some valid ML criticism. I am a ML s(c|k)eptic too, in that popular conceptions of what ML is currently overpromise, often don't even understand what ML actually is, and are often just some layperson's imagination about what "artificial intelligence" might do. This article is the opposite. He's treating ML as basically a simple supervised architecture that do…

> But I also don't think the engineers working in this space are as out to lunch as the author seems to imply. Are you at all close to this space? It sounds you may be underestimating corporate politics and the lack of rigour and ethical thought with which these systems are applied. The example Cory puts on policing -- and the many other examples you can find in Evgeny Morozov's book or "The End of Trust" -- are soli…

> Are you at all close to this space?

I am.

> The example Cory puts on policing

My most upvoted comment on this website was discussing this exact scenario. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23655487

Could you perhaps clarify the generalization you're making about me and people like me so I can understand it?

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