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Where has all the productivity gone?

johndcook.com

71–80 of 219 posts

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#71
post #2

There is a huge assumption here that productivity isn't increasing, which is false. Economic output per hour worked has been steadily increasing in every country since their respective industrial revolutions. When you go to the source tweet, it turns out that it's comparing the developed world to the developing world. Developing economies will always grow faster, but not necessarily efficiently, because there's more…

GDP doesn't take into consideration public debt. If public debt is up 100% and GDP has barely changed - I don't think that's cause for celebration that GDP / hours worked = we are more productive. I'm not saying this is the case. But people use GDP a lot to make points like this - and it's important to talk about how much public debt is increasing GDP.

If you are in a country where pensions are managed by the state, your contributions are considered taxes. If you are in a country with a private pension system, your contributions are in the GDP!

The GDP is not a scientific measure. It is an ideological concept.

It doesn't mean it is useless, but it should not be taken at face value.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#72
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this is something I saw inside a lot of companies, especially when they get sizable funding: they become simultaneously obsessed with hiring and process A lot of it just seems to be driven by strange attempts at optimization. For example, at my company, there was a lot of time spent on figuring out developer metrics (for all four of us on the team at its peak) and cost accountability. On the cost accountability sid…

Yeah this also sounds like part of the "MBA-ification" of business. I think a lot of this comes from a reasonable goal to have: if can find appropriate metrics which represent the work your company is doing, this should give you a reasonably objective way of measuring how different interventions move you closer to or farther from your goal. But I think the problem is that actually finding and implementing those metri…

You Can't Improve What You Can't Measure Disease

YCIWYCM is a great way to kill productivity and performance improvement efforts when taken too far. Sometimes, you've just got to go with your gut. The amount of effort needed to make measurements, especially for less tangible knowledge work, can kill productivity overall.

Often, the measurable parts are at the conclusion of a particular effort, the total time it took to get there and the value of the output. But it's not necessarily possible to meaningfully measure the internal process of reaching it when (again, knowledge work specific) half the time may be spent thinking about the thing. How do you measure that? How do you indicate progress when you're one "aha" moment away from success but can't force one to occur? Synthesis, what most programmers do, the combining of ideas to form a new theory [Naur1985] is hard to do mechanically. It can be done, for a lot of work, but not necessarily for everything. But because it's not a purely mechanical process (in contrast to a lot of other business processes or physical manufacturing work where you have more mechanical work and less synthesis) it's hard to identify useful metrics and collect them.

When the work is more mechanical ("We've done this before, but...") then you can start finding more places to measure and gain useful insights. But the more novelty that occurs, the more you need to collaborate with each other or spend time in thought, the harder it is to find useful measurements.

[Naur1985] https://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~remzi/Naur.pdf

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#73

> This is what happened with the introduction of household appliances. Instead of spending less time doing laundry, for example, we do laundry more often. I have thoroughly debunked this commonly referenced saying. I don't have a washer and a dryer any more and I can't go into laundromats because Tide delivers a chemical burn. (Even with 2 empty loads in a row.) No, I hand wash all my clothes and it takes way longer…

I took it to mean people used to wear clothes longer between washes, not just that we do more frequent, smaller loads. It would be interesting to see a comparison showing how much longer an average person should wear the same clothes in order to make hand washing time commensurate with machine washing time.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TikTok, Clubhouse and Robinhood have touched the lives of orders of magnitudes more people than Tesla or SpaceX. Tesla sold half a million cars last year. TikTok provided entertainment for a billion people.

I think there’s a disconnect in what we deem to be value. SpaceX has rapidly reduced the cost of lift to orbit (and shortly, revolutionizing global comms via StarLink). Tesla has forced an entire industry (light vehicles) to electrify by demonstrating very little compromise vs combustion vehicles while their stationary storage products are forcing thermal generators off the electrical grid (cannibalizing ancillary/fr…

In the past, the systems that thought they knew top down what is "valuable" and what isn't in the economy and society in a more granular level didn't work out so well.

Maybe the only reason we are spared extermination by some alien enemy is because our videos are so great (I think there is a short story from Philip K. Dick simikar to that).

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#75
post #17

I find it hard to agree with the article. With the escalation of technology the amount of things I get done every day, like, tangible, countable things, has skyrocketed, even more as my education with that technology went up. Not just programming and admin stuff, that includes stuff like art (cheaper, takes less time, gets nicer results) which some people argued would never ever be a replacement for traditional art (…

> Most of my computer tasks are automated via scripts and homebrewn programs. Maybe I'm some sort of rare example of the third point in the article ("The productivity is here, it’s just only harnessed by the indistractable few."), but I doubt I'm special in any way. It's not like the past had no distractions, and I'd argue distractions in the past were harder to dismiss (having to personally travel to X place to do Y…

>This makes you a rare example. I’ve been saying for years that the real computer revolution will happen when people work with computers, rather than on computers.

Heh, it's funny you mention that, because I always had a deeply rooted philosophical belief that computers are tools, and a properly configured computing device is an "extension" of oneself. Not in some crazy cyberpunk sense of extension, but same as regular, old-school tools are customizable to better suit the user's hand, size or strength, so we can perform better with them, as if the tool was a part of our body.

Sure, it does require a certain amount of know-how, but even at the barest there's some degree of organizational feature like moving launcher icons so you can reach for a tool without jumping through hoops. Every "papercut" removed helps.

For example, this week I had a bit of a need to get text from some images. It's short enough bits of text that can be typed by hand, but that's annoying, so I set up a couple scripts to get the text via OCR and copy it to clipboard, after massaging the input a little bit using imageMagick, and now I can quickly retrieve it with ridiculously small % of failure (and it's usually very obvious), and works with Japanese and everything. At least half a minute of back-and-forth was turned into a keypress and a verification step (I usually double-check what I type so that step was going to happen anyway). It's a tiny thing and not even remotely my finest work in the field, but everything adds up. Got lots of homemade tools to do pretty much everything I do regularly, and properly commented so it serves as a bit of a personal repo of arcane tricks and best practices. I even recoded a few tools in pure bash or awk/gawk so I can carry them around as fallbacks, which allows me to use those things in obsolete or busybox-tier systems.

At this point I might as well admit it's a bit of a hobby. Having artistic skills also allows me to "brand" my system with custom decorations and of course allow me to draw comfortably by having most automation available from my left hand.

Anyway, sorry for the long personal post, but the point is to use my experience as example of the things the computer can do for you if you are willing to put some time into making it behave the way you want, the way it suits your own usages, experiences and abilities and of course environment. Maybe all you need to be happily productive are a few custom document templates and rearranging some icons, or you do complex coding tasks that can be automated to save you from lots of busywork, or you are working with faulty hardware or unstable internet connection that requires some babysitting that can be automated with a few scripts. I'm not saying it's something everyone should know, but it might be useful for people to openly discuss their use cases and experiences, someone might have a recommendation or trick available and everyone wins. It's a lot like working in the kitchen if you think about it.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#76
post #73

> This is what happened with the introduction of household appliances. Instead of spending less time doing laundry, for example, we do laundry more often. I have thoroughly debunked this commonly referenced saying. I don't have a washer and a dryer any more and I can't go into laundromats because Tide delivers a chemical burn. (Even with 2 empty loads in a row.) No, I hand wash all my clothes and it takes way longer…

I took it to mean people used to wear clothes longer between washes, not just that we do more frequent, smaller loads. It would be interesting to see a comparison showing how much longer an average person should wear the same clothes in order to make hand washing time commensurate with machine washing time.

Yeah I re-wear the same clothes a LOT and it still takes way more time.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#77

> This is what happened with the introduction of household appliances. Instead of spending less time doing laundry, for example, we do laundry more often. I have thoroughly debunked this commonly referenced saying. I don't have a washer and a dryer any more and I can't go into laundromats because Tide delivers a chemical burn. (Even with 2 empty loads in a row.) No, I hand wash all my clothes and it takes way longer…

I don't understand this at all. Doesn't hand washing expose you to more chemicals?

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't think bringing people joy is a positive impact?

Cocaine triggers a dopamine response (simplified, I dated someone with an addiction). Is that a positive impact? Moderation is important, as in reflection as to why you’re enjoying something and if it's healthy.

If cocaine was free I think it'd have a tremendously positive impact.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cocaine triggers a dopamine response (simplified, I dated someone with an addiction). Is that a positive impact? Moderation is important, as in reflection as to why you’re enjoying something and if it's healthy.

If cocaine was free I think it'd have a tremendously positive impact.

Maybe with robust social safety nets and mental health services available (Portugal model).

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#80

> This is what happened with the introduction of household appliances. Instead of spending less time doing laundry, for example, we do laundry more often. I have thoroughly debunked this commonly referenced saying. I don't have a washer and a dryer any more and I can't go into laundromats because Tide delivers a chemical burn. (Even with 2 empty loads in a row.) No, I hand wash all my clothes and it takes way longer…

I don't understand this at all. Doesn't hand washing expose you to more chemicals?

It would except that I use exclusively apple cidar vinegar. not the point.
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