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London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

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Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#21

Post by tialaramex »

londons_explore wrote: post #11
DrBazza wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to wikipedia, at least, it's 4bn [1] But you're correct, for a (UK) infrastructure project that's actually pretty good especially considering it has to go underground through a city that has medieval and Roman ruins littered all over the place [2] > The total estimated cost has risen from an initial budget of £14.8 billion to £18.7 billion, as of August 2020.[7] 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossrail ht…

It isn't done yet... To really see how far the budget miss is, you have to wait for the thing to be finished and all costs accounted for, while also seeing how much the project has been scaled back (for example travel time goals not met because the trains are poorer performance than initially specced)

Class 345s were all manufactured and are already in service today. Is their performance in fact "poorer than initially specified" ?

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#22

Post by throw0101a »

tsywke44 wrote: post #14
Reason077 wrote: post #13

> "The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year." We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

> Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

I remember someone commenting that given the choice, it's better to delay shipping video games if you need to fix things. This is because not long after release no one will remember it being late, but everyone will remember (hearing that) it being a pile of garbage.

Reputations are often very hard to shake.

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#23

Post by Reason077 »

tsywke44 wrote: post #14
Reason077 wrote: post #13

> "The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year." We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

> "Who cares? ... nobody will even remember a few years of delays."

If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models.

Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it was hoped this would get started in 2023, but I doubt there's any chance it will start before well into the 2030s now.

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#24

Post by superdisk »

throw0101a wrote: post #22
tsywke44 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

> Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays. I remember someone commenting that given the choice, it's better to delay shipping video games if you need to fix things. This is because not long after release no one will remember it being late, but everyone will remember (hearing that) it being a pile of garbage. Reputations are often very hard to shake.

Shigeru Miyamoto said that actually.

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#25

Post by radycov »

tsywke44 wrote: post #14
Reason077 wrote: post #13

> "The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year." We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

What churlish asinine myopia. Plenty of people affected by life changing disruption to their living conditions and communities. Seveal years of putting your life on hold is a big deal.

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#26

Post by tomatocracy »

Symbiote wrote: post #12
bambax wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. From the article: > The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year. Currently the project hopes to be able to open one line in 2022 (maybe) and is at least half a billion pounds over budget.

That is a pessimistic spin on things. They're opening the final part of the line (the new tunnels), they're confident of doing this in February, and there's a clear plan on how the rest will open in stages in the following 12 months or so. https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/12/crossrail-to-mak...

This is true but we've been here a couple of times before with Crossrail though so it might be sensible to take what they say with a pinch of salt - eg in late August 2018 they announced a surprise delay in opening from December 2018 to late 2019 then in April 2019 that became late 2020/early 2021 (which obviously then didn't happen either) - and that was all after it had already been delayed from its original 2017 planned opening.

And bear in mind that the tunnelling work was completed in 2015. It's been an absolute travesty.

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#27

Post by user5994461 »

throw0101a wrote: post #22
tsywke44 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

> Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays. I remember someone commenting that given the choice, it's better to delay shipping video games if you need to fix things. This is because not long after release no one will remember it being late, but everyone will remember (hearing that) it being a pile of garbage. Reputations are often very hard to shake.

That's not true anymore with online updates and early access on steam.

You can ship a game with lots of bugs and missing content, as long as the price is set in consequence.

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#28

Post by neverminder »

tsywke44 wrote: post #14
Reason077 wrote: post #13

> "The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year." We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

People who bought their houses along the line expecting speedy commute care very much.

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#29

Post by user5994461 »

Reason077 wrote: post #23
tsywke44 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

> "Who cares? ... nobody will even remember a few years of delays." If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models. Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it wa…

COVID and Brexit have drastically reduced the amount of commuters, for the foreseeable decades.

Don't be surprised that $20B transportation projects are being reconsidered.

Re: London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

#30

Post by toomuchtodo »

user5994461 wrote: post #29
Reason077 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Who cares? ... nobody will even remember a few years of delays." If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models. Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it wa…

COVID and Brexit have drastically reduced the amount of commuters, for the foreseeable decades. Don't be surprised that $20B transportation projects are being reconsidered.

The best capital improvements are the ones that you can obviate away through cheap behavioral or societal adjustments (just as the best line of code is the one you can remove or didn’t have to write).
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