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AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

technologyreview.com

111–120 of 136 posts

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#112
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. They didn't want Trump to have that "win." It was purely political. The vaccines they are pushing now are the very same ones that were developed and tested while Trump was in office.

It certainly wasn't purely political. It was based on the idea that the decision to approve the vaccine is the job of the FDA and that they have to pass their safety and effectiveness verdict. The US FDA was among the first world-wide to approve (Europe was months later) which in my mind shows that there is not much to an argument that political forces delayed the announcement (and how could the opposition / democrat…

The US FDA was among the first world-wide to approve (Europe was months later)

UK MHRA: Dec 2. US FDA: Dec 11. European EMA/EC: Dec 21. Months later? Hyperbole doesn't help your argument.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#113
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>100% it can be modelled somehow in theory. The entire premise of modelling something rests on the fact that the behaviour of what you're trying to model in the future depends on its behaviour in the past. This is not true for all systems, it's not even true for most systems. John Kay differentiates between 'resolvable uncertainty' and 'radical uncertainty'. Modelling a volcano eruption is resolvable because it's a r…

What? We have to model human health. Find good proxies for it (non invasive scans, bloodwork, PCR, rapid antigen test, whole genome sequencing, anamnesis [medical history]) and there's ample to predict. Of course there are better and worse signals to use.

>We have to model human health

no, the correct behavior under uncertainty isn't modelling, it's something akin to Taleb's notion of antifragility or robustness. The correct response to a pandemic isn't some sort of Hari Seldon psycho-history which, as the article points out, is futile. The right response is building systems so responsive they can crush a pandemic before it gets to that stage.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#114
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It certainly wasn't purely political. It was based on the idea that the decision to approve the vaccine is the job of the FDA and that they have to pass their safety and effectiveness verdict. The US FDA was among the first world-wide to approve (Europe was months later) which in my mind shows that there is not much to an argument that political forces delayed the announcement (and how could the opposition / democrat…

The US FDA was among the first world-wide to approve (Europe was months later) UK MHRA: Dec 2. US FDA: Dec 11. European EMA/EC: Dec 21. Months later? Hyperbole doesn't help your argument.

I got misled by parent. I knew that Biontech had received EU approval in December but from parents comment understood that in the US the approval came shortly after the elections. Sorry.

Still: don't you think the argument holds: US FDA is one of the first to approve is a sign that there can't be much delay.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#115
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It was based on the idea that the decision to approve the vaccine is the job of the FDA and that they have to pass their safety and effectiveness verdict. You can't claim they were just following the rules, because they weren't. They bended and broke whatever rules they saw fit to get the vaccine done, including doing multiple phases simultaneously. If the FDA were following the rules, we still wouldn't have a vacci…

> You can't claim they were just following the rules, because they weren't. They bended and broke whatever rules they saw fit to get the vaccine done, including doing multiple phases simultaneously. I don't get your argument here. On the one side people are insinuating that the democrats influenced the FDA to delay the vaccine, then you suggest that the FDA rushed it. > Trump was called racist by Congressional D's fo…

They either broke rules or followed them, as they saw convenient. There's no need for democrat influence; the vast majority of government employees are democrats. The collective behavior is both emergent and dogmatic.

>I don't get your argument here.

You think it's only possible to break rules in one direction at a time? Then I wouldn't expect you to get it. Maybe politics isn't for you.

>It is tiresome to discuss with Americans

Then don't. What's out of context?

>fact check dot org

Oh. Well if a left wing funded propaganda site can spin that "ban" doesn't really mean "ban" bc some people got exemptions; and even if it was a "ban" then it wasn't a good one; and even if it was a good one, it wasn't very effective... I guess that covers all possible angles.

Biden literally called Trump xenophobic the following day.

How's that for out of context? Grow up or go back to r/whatever.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#116
Yeah, I guess it would be cool to do an X-ray or CT scan of every patient, preferably in repeatable and controlled conditions similar to the AI training set. On the other hand there supposedly were very good results with training dogs to identify covid patients by smell alone. Which sounds faster, cheaper and probably even less error prone (judging by this article). I guess it doesn't scale well and there's not much money to be made, so there's that.

I think it may be the case with AI researchers where if the only tool you have is a hammer then every problem starts looking like a nail /jk

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally agree. I’ve been thinking the same, and it’s odd to me that he didn’t go that route to begin with. You’d think he’d be all over it.

Once he realizes he actually lost the election and that the Trump insurrection failed he can move on to other important matters such as public health. Maybe a Trump branded vaccine can be sold at a premium. Throw in a Trump Steak and a Trump Uni Diploma with it to bring people in?

> Once he realizes he actually lost the election

If he did, leftists wouldn't be trying frantically to stop the election audits, which are allowed under law.

So far, multiple election irregularities have been found, and the last-minute election law changes have been rolled back. I believe 5% of the "registered voters" in Fulton County have been shown to be in error, tainting that election.

FYI: Trump supporters are calling 2024 "Trump's 3rd term." And they're correct. Half of the country considers Trump to be the current President, and "Biden to be in the White House."

> and that the Trump insurrection

Again, if there was, the people arrested would have gun charges, and they don't.

5 people died - 4 of natural causes, and 1 shot by Capitol Police. How is that an "insurrection"?

Facts are more important than your feelings.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#118
We have good tools for diagnosing COVID-19, and have had them from almost the start. If your looking for medical AI problems, start with the 12-lead EKG which fits on one piece of 8x10 piece of paper, is 2D, and current formulaic algorithms misread about 50% of the time when compared to a paramedic or nurse. Much less a physician, cardiologist, or electrophysiologist.

If this algorithm was better it would absolutely save lives and make everyday life easier for clinicians.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#119
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? We have to model human health. Find good proxies for it (non invasive scans, bloodwork, PCR, rapid antigen test, whole genome sequencing, anamnesis [medical history]) and there's ample to predict. Of course there are better and worse signals to use.

>We have to model human health no, the correct behavior under uncertainty isn't modelling, it's something akin to Taleb's notion of antifragility or robustness. The correct response to a pandemic isn't some sort of Hari Seldon psycho-history which, as the article points out, is futile. The right response is building systems so responsive they can crush a pandemic before it gets to that stage.

Antifragility depends on knowing how to respond so that next time you'll be less fragile for the "same" stimuli.

For that we need better public health measures, those depend on modeling, vaccine development, etc.

There's no escaping understanding human health. It underpins and informs our responses. (Which kind of viruses are likely to pose a real threat, monitoring those threats, evaluating them, models, predictions, data, etc.)

I'm not talking about one big Seldon-esque equation, but about the public/global health system we already have, the whole of medical research, and so on.

These toy classifiers trained on COVID scans are in the same class as Tesla's dangerous "autopilot", because the system is too limited, it doesn't understand context, it lacks a world model. (Tesla's lack epistemic convergence and stability for object detection, ie. it lacks the understanding that cars, roads, obstacles don't flicker in and out of existence, nor do they change from frame to frame. Similarly a "medical AI" needs to understand that medical imaging artifacts are unlikely to be good proxies for real diagnosis, so it needs to be able to abstract away from the image, process away the artifacts and recording environment differences, etc.)

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#120
post #20

What ever happened to using AI to diagnose infections based on cough sounds? It seemed like a promising approach. https://news.mit.edu/2020/covid-19-cough-cellphone-detection...

I vaguely remember reading more about this elsewhere and I believe they only used COVID positive patients. It would be interesting if there are follow-up studies with mixed training data if true.
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