AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped • Hacker News Board

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#101

Post by oezi » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 8:38 AM UTC

beerandt wrote: post #90

oezi wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It certainly wasn't purely political. It was based on the idea that the decision to approve the vaccine is the job of the FDA and that they have to pass their safety and effectiveness verdict. The US FDA was among the first world-wide to approve (Europe was months later) which in my mind shows that there is not much to an argument that political forces delayed the announcement (and how could the opposition / democrat…

>It was based on the idea that the decision to approve the vaccine is the job of the FDA and that they have to pass their safety and effectiveness verdict. You can't claim they were just following the rules, because they weren't. They bended and broke whatever rules they saw fit to get the vaccine done, including doing multiple phases simultaneously. If the FDA were following the rules, we still wouldn't have a vacci…

> You can't claim they were just following the rules, because they weren't. They bended and broke whatever rules they saw fit to get the vaccine done, including doing multiple phases simultaneously.

I don't get your argument here. On the one side people are insinuating that the democrats influenced the FDA to delay the vaccine, then you suggest that the FDA rushed it.

> Trump was called racist by Congressional D's for wanting to shut down the international travel to prevent the spread in February.

It is tiresome to discuss with Americans. Why rip everything out of context?

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel...

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#102

Post by johnisgood » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 8:53 AM UTC

parineum wrote: post #96

snovv_crash wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of anti-vaxxers I know are more on the Green side. The Trump supporters got the vaccine as soon as they could.

I'm in California and I have the same experience as you but the data nationally shows otherwise.

Which one? I'm looking at https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-red-blue-divide-in-covi... at the moment.

July 6 - 46.7% Biden, 35.0% Trump.

This is reported by the way, right?

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#103

Post by blub » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 8:59 AM UTC

criticaltinker wrote: post #79

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #31

Should have built AI tools to educate the ignorant populace and encourage them to get a vaccine. I know there have to be tons of adboys and girls out there whose only job is to persuade people to do something that could have knocked this out of the park. I see we are still at about 50% vaccination and Walmart is begging people to come get a free vaccine. I’m sorry my tone is negative but this is really getting me fru…

I understand your frustration, but the condescending remarks are not conducive to wholesome scientific discussion. Diversity is the way nature builds robust and balanced ecosystems - AI tools that reinforce ideological homogeneity could be catastrophic, for reasons I consider self-evident. Returning to the topic at hand, and as a counterpoint to your claims, there are legitimate second and third order effects to cons…

Social diversity of opinion is also to be expected. No matter what the leadership decides, there will be people that criticize it and there will be people that are strongly against it.

The reasons almost don’t matter. If the leadership doesn’t have at least two plans to deal with this expected situation, then they have failed.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#104

Post by forcry » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 9:27 AM UTC

trhway wrote: post #77

doovd wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting covid. It reduces the effects so you're less likely to need hospitalization. So saying x% of people with covid are vaccinated doesn't mean much. There's some education for you.

>The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting covid. lets that sink. Especially considering that according to the above mentioned CDC data infected vaccinated people spread virus as infected unvaccinated. >It reduces the effects so you're less likely to need hospitalization. So, as current vaccines don't stop infection and spread, why would the most of the population whose risk of hospitalization is very low need (and e…

>So, as current vaccines don't stop infection and spread, why would the most of the population whose risk of hospitalization is very low need (and even forced) to vaccinate?

Good point.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#105

Post by forcry » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 9:28 AM UTC

forcry wrote: post #70

new299 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like a very different scenario as we don't have control Earths that we do case-control studies on...

Yes, of course, but not being able to do the proper minimum viable thing 'x', does imply the possible alternative is good enough.. Also I was mostly talking about correcting errors in existing data..

I mean, does not imply..

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#106

Post by pas » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 9:40 AM UTC

Barrin92 wrote: post #53

roenxi wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is no phenomenon to correctly model COVID exists, it causes physical changes and affects the world outside the host. 100% it can be modelled somehow in theory. That being said, there are harsh rules against collecting data (for example, it would be extremely illegal to create a sample set by taking a random group of people and infecting half of them with COVID on purpose). So I expect actually getting trainin…

>100% it can be modelled somehow in theory. The entire premise of modelling something rests on the fact that the behaviour of what you're trying to model in the future depends on its behaviour in the past. This is not true for all systems, it's not even true for most systems. John Kay differentiates between 'resolvable uncertainty' and 'radical uncertainty'. Modelling a volcano eruption is resolvable because it's a r…

What? We have to model human health. Find good proxies for it (non invasive scans, bloodwork, PCR, rapid antigen test, whole genome sequencing, anamnesis [medical history]) and there's ample to predict. Of course there are better and worse signals to use.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#107

Post by TomSwirly » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 10:05 AM UTC

criticaltinker wrote: post #79

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #31

Should have built AI tools to educate the ignorant populace and encourage them to get a vaccine. I know there have to be tons of adboys and girls out there whose only job is to persuade people to do something that could have knocked this out of the park. I see we are still at about 50% vaccination and Walmart is begging people to come get a free vaccine. I’m sorry my tone is negative but this is really getting me fru…

I understand your frustration, but the condescending remarks are not conducive to wholesome scientific discussion. Diversity is the way nature builds robust and balanced ecosystems - AI tools that reinforce ideological homogeneity could be catastrophic, for reasons I consider self-evident. Returning to the topic at hand, and as a counterpoint to your claims, there are legitimate second and third order effects to cons…

> I cannot emphasize enough that the spirit of science is to question assumptions and rigorously prove hypothesis.

But that's not what we're getting. Instead, we're getting a large number of people who haven't spent ten minutes bothering to learn anything about the science posting obvious bullshit.

How is anyone supposed to get actual science done if nearly all the "questioning" is repetitive worthless lies by people who have absolutely no interest in science at all and are simply screaming obvious lies at the top of their voices?

A question I ask a lot of the vaccine deniers on my Facebook page is, "Can you give a quick explanation in your own words why COVID-19 is so good at getting past the human immune system?"

No one has even tried to answer.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#108

Post by TomSwirly » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 10:18 AM UTC

parineum wrote: post #75

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #31

Should have built AI tools to educate the ignorant populace and encourage them to get a vaccine. I know there have to be tons of adboys and girls out there whose only job is to persuade people to do something that could have knocked this out of the park. I see we are still at about 50% vaccination and Walmart is begging people to come get a free vaccine. I’m sorry my tone is negative but this is really getting me fru…

I've been telling people that the way to get people to take the vaccine would be to give Trump credit for operation lightspeed (which I think he deserves but that's irrelevant) and start referring to the vaccine as Trump's Vaccine. I'm okay with handing Trump a win if it can help save lives and end this pandemic.

> give Trump credit for operation lightspeed

Your idea wouldn't work. MAGAs hate liberals, and whatever liberals say appears to them like the voices of the grown-ups in the Peanuts cartoons. Maybe they pull out a few phrases to parody.

We've had over a year of near-continuous propaganda from the Republicans. Masks threaten your freedom. COVID is just the flu. No one dies from it, they put it down on every death certificate. Vaccinations kill you, not COVID. Vaccinations spread COVID, that's the new one.

Giving Trump credit for it would change nothing, even if the MAGAs heard it, and they wouldn't.

> which I think he deserves

It astonishes me that after years of watching Trump lie and lie and lie and lie, rambling and incoherent, often contradicting himself from day to day, watched eighteen months of him lying about COVID including that first key year where he did everything he could as President to prevent an effective response to COVID, that people somehow believe that he's secretly a competent administrator who "gets things done".

What Trump "deserves" is to spend the rest of his life in jail. His deliberate mishandling of COVID resulted in hundreds of thousands of needless American deaths: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#109

Post by thinkingemote » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 10:19 AM UTC

TomSwirly wrote: post #107

criticaltinker wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand your frustration, but the condescending remarks are not conducive to wholesome scientific discussion. Diversity is the way nature builds robust and balanced ecosystems - AI tools that reinforce ideological homogeneity could be catastrophic, for reasons I consider self-evident. Returning to the topic at hand, and as a counterpoint to your claims, there are legitimate second and third order effects to cons…

> I cannot emphasize enough that the spirit of science is to question assumptions and rigorously prove hypothesis. But that's not what we're getting. Instead, we're getting a large number of people who haven't spent ten minutes bothering to learn anything about the science posting obvious bullshit. How is anyone supposed to get actual science done if nearly all the "questioning" is repetitive worthless lies by people…

Not who you are replying to but...

>How is anyone supposed to get actual science done...

One would hope that scientists would not be diverted by questions by people they do not work with or know on Facebook and are able to get actual science done regardless of a minority thinks.

I wonder if it's rational or a good thing to defend scientists by potentially restricting the ignorance of lay people in public places?

I think many would say it's good to avoid Harm and protect lives. It's easy to be irrational to defend rationality.

Edits. Oh, it could be that people are extending "follow the science" and seeing how others are not and thinking this as a kind of lack of faith. Perhaps the idea that actual scientists are being stopped doing science because of no faith in them by small numbers of the public is actually a religious thought. That actual science needs people to believe in it for it to work, and if an other doesn't believe it, they are anethema. That could have explain my feelings about the irrationality of this.

Re: AI tools have been built to catch Covid, but none of them helped

#110

Post by snovv_crash » Sat, Jul 31, 2021, 10:26 AM UTC

johnisgood wrote: post #102

parineum wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in California and I have the same experience as you but the data nationally shows otherwise.

Which one? I'm looking at https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-red-blue-divide-in-covi... at the moment. July 6 - 46.7% Biden, 35.0% Trump. This is reported by the way, right?

That's also a correlation of a correlation, which can be extremely misleading. It might be, for example, that Biden supporters in Trump-dominated districts are less likely to get vaccines.