Hindenburg Research was right then. https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/
The fact that the hedge fun researching this Hydrogen powered company is named "Hindenburg" is hilarious.
Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
411–420 of 533 posts
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#412Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's wrong with the latest statement? Technically all cars have a proper GPU (Tesla's "GPU") and 360 cameras, the reliability is probably in the 90%-99% (which, yes, is pretty terrible to be considered fully autonomous, but impressive from a technical standpoint). Technically is correct to say that all they have to do is to "improve the software". That will be a lot of work, sweat and tears, but still correct.
Since the fall of 2016, Tesla's website has said: > "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." Yet the original "HW1" computer was replaced by "HW2", which was replaced by "FSD Computer 2.5", which was replaced by "FSD Computer 3". If you want to activate the Full Self-D…
Replacing hardware does not make old hardware incapable of FSD.
To give you an example, ImageNet for image classification required for many years a descent computer and GPU to run inference. Today, an improved version called MobileNet, runs in phones with no GPU from advancements in AI training with half-precision and why not.
So, how can we be so sure that FSD can't EVER be ported back to HW1?
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#413Earlier quoted context omitted.
Until it actually works, how can you say the hardware is sufficient?
Historically, there have been significant bottlenecks on algorithms, I'd argue software plays a bigger role than hardware; especially during inference. Going back to AlexNet, while GPUs helped the training process, it included significant software improvements that made a huge difference: training with dropout, convolutional neural networks, using rectified linear units, etc. Also, training hardware is much more rele…
so, you're saying it doesn't work then?
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#414Earlier quoted context omitted.
Silicon Valley is choke full of fraud and absurd valuations.
When you look at the actual fraud (like Theranos) silicon valley funds are nowhere near it. The people that get duped are usually outsiders that are more easily manipulated. It can be hard to tell the difference between big ideas and bullshit, they can often sound similar. Con-artists will mimic the people that actually know their shit. In order to tell the difference you need to actually look at the underlying tech…
> When you look at the actual fraud (like Theranos) silicon valley funds are nowhere near it. The people that get duped are usually outsiders that are more easily manipulated.
might not have been valley insiders, but if you look at theranos bizarre board selection, they were certainly not just random joes and certainly had the wherewithal to know they needed do proper due diligence before attaching themselves to the fraud, unless of course they were also party to it...
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#415Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think Trevor was counting on people not being able to tell the difference. They named their Tesla-competing company “Nikola,” which is a bit astounding when you think of it.
And Elizabeth Holmes wore black turtle necks - subtlety is not what they’re usually going for. Trevor does have some 30+ million dollar ranch in Utah though so I guess he did a better job of it. In Holmes case I genuinely think it didn't start as a fraud, but became one when they started lying. Not sure about Nikola.
> In Holmes case I genuinely think it didn't start as a fraud
Anyone thinking you can do statistically accurate blood testing from one drop of dirty fingertip capillary blood without having already made a major scientific breakthrough is certainly not thinking straight, if not outright being fraudulent
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#416Earlier quoted context omitted.
Historically, there have been significant bottlenecks on algorithms, I'd argue software plays a bigger role than hardware; especially during inference. Going back to AlexNet, while GPUs helped the training process, it included significant software improvements that made a huge difference: training with dropout, convolutional neural networks, using rectified linear units, etc. Also, training hardware is much more rele…
so, you're saying it doesn't work then?
Correct! I'm saying FSD only works on 90%-99% of cases, which is currently insufficient to be actually considered FSD. Keyword, currently.
However, I'm NOT stating that this won't ever work. I do believe that FSD will work in the future. Are there risks? For sure. But I'm very optimistic.
I'm trying to communicate that, even with current in-car hardware, this should be sufficient. Why? Cause driving the car with a neural-network is actually quite trivial. Now, training the neural-model is actually REALLY hard. But the training does not happen in the car, car just collects data and sends it to a data center with GPUs that trains the network. If any hardware will need upgrade, is the data center were training happens, not the actual in-car hardware.
Are you really saying that FSD will never work? Cause that's a pretty bold claim.
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#417Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lets see some of the quotes and think if we could get away with it... Aug 7, 2018 "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." Elon Musk Aug 7, 2018 "Shareholders could either to sell at 420 or hold shares & go private" After paying 20 million dollar fine referring to the Securities and Exchange Commission tweets: "Just want to that the Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work," "…
What's wrong with the latest statement? Technically all cars have a proper GPU (Tesla's "GPU") and 360 cameras, the reliability is probably in the 90%-99% (which, yes, is pretty terrible to be considered fully autonomous, but impressive from a technical standpoint). Technically is correct to say that all they have to do is to "improve the software". That will be a lot of work, sweat and tears, but still correct.
You have no idea whether that's sufficient hardware for full self driving. Nobody does, because we don't know how to make it happen. We can't even prove that it's doable short of AGI.
So what's wrong with the statement is it fits a pattern of statements with reckless disregard for the truth.
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#418Earlier quoted context omitted.
Since the fall of 2016, Tesla's website has said: > "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." Yet the original "HW1" computer was replaced by "HW2", which was replaced by "FSD Computer 2.5", which was replaced by "FSD Computer 3". If you want to activate the Full Self-D…
Replacing hardware does not make old hardware incapable of FSD. To give you an example, ImageNet for image classification required for many years a descent computer and GPU to run inference. Today, an improved version called MobileNet, runs in phones with no GPU from advancements in AI training with half-precision and why not. So, how can we be so sure that FSD can't EVER be ported back to HW1?
That's some pretty impressive goal post moving there.
It doesn't matter whether it can't ever be ported back. It doesn't work today, and that's all there is to it. Musk lied. And it isn't the first time he does so either.
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#419Earlier quoted context omitted.
> His twitter post was clear, he was "considering" taking TSLA private. $420 funding secure indicates he already had financing ready. Why has this mystery funder never materialized. > Anyone who bought in at this news would have been buying in for This is hugely problematic as a response. Elon Musk's behavior is unethical whether Tesla stock went up or down. The stock price should not be used as justification for pre…
No one has been confused I don't think. I saw the considering the $420 buyout, I took it to mean just that. The short sellers around tesla have been pathetic. Note I don't own any tesla stock, but the short seller hype train is just ridiculous around tesla. How there has been no action there is mind boggling. He's a crazy guy willing to take crazy risks - look at SpaceX -> they are operating COMPLETELY outside all no…
I think you've hit the nail on the head.
The Battery-Solar-Car angle is such an obvious integration for Tesla. I guess on paper it is frustrating it was a family connection, but their alternative was for Tesla to start building their own Solar capability when they had a significant stake in one already.
SEC is a joke - chasing Elon is like a weird hobby for them... meanwhile things like 2008 happen and they shrug and go "Sorry, we missed that one"... What's their mission again?
Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud
#420Earlier quoted context omitted.
I browse through a lot of niche investing social media groups. One of the more liked posts on a Nikola investment group was, "If "they" cared about the future, the earth and the renewable energy issue, they would let whatever Trevor did slide." Surprisingly, I saw similar posts about Musk on the Thailand rescuer tweet and the price too high tweet. You are not betting against the fundamentals or the realities of the s…
I'm not sure creating a multibillion dollar vaporware fraud shell company and being a dick on Twitter are comparable sins.
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