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Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

cnbc.com

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Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#291

Post by zeusk »

SmellTheGlove wrote: post #255
pvarangot wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm usually a very negative person but another side of the coin here is that if you were good at this "speculative generation of statics to captivate" the best way to raise money was "gaming" big capital. With the risk profile of retail investors changing and more risky ways to trade on public markets becoming accepted comes a positive aspect of the naturalization of highly speculative single picks on the stock marke…

It sounds like your cult is Theta Gang then! Seriously though that seems to be what the quiet crowd is doing - taking advantage of the premiums caused by the general crazy that permeates the market. I don’t know enough to sell options but I keep meaning to read up.

When your RSU and ESPP vest, open your brokerage and try selling a single 20-30% out of the money call that expires in a month.

You can read about it, but actually doing it is not that hard. Although, given the inflated stock prices and US equity options being 100 sized lot - you do have to keep an eye to roll it out if market is getting really exuberant.

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#292

Post by gamblor956 »

mbesto wrote: post #266
gamblor956 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One company has endless growth potential, 80% gross margins, and every new customer served has marginal cost implications to the business. Mazda? Because according to their SEC filings Duolingo has pretty limited growth potential, increasing losses (or in other words, negative gross margins), and they spend a significant amount of money to attract each new paying customer. They only approach 80% gross margins if you…

Are you trolling? > Because according to their SEC filings Duolingo has pretty limited growth potential, The global market for direct-to-consumer language learning is large, growing, and shifting online. According to HolonIQ, total consumer spend on both online and offline language learning represented a $61 billion market in 2019, and will grow to $115 billion in 2025, implying a CAGR of 11% over this period. Online…

I stand by my comments. Groupon and LivingSocial said the same about their respective market, a decade ago. And if you'd done your research into HolonIQ's report, offline language learning was the supermajority of the $61 billion market. Online learning was a tiny tiny fraction of the market, and as many other commenters have pointed out: Duolingo and most of its online competitors are only good for superficial, introductory-level learning, with actual skill growth requiring in-person interaction. Moreover, Duolingo's online competition alone includes hundreds of free and paid apps and websites, plus Youtube and Twitch.

Duolingo's "gross profit" is not calculated using GAAP. It's calculated using fantasy unicorn accounting. Key giveaway: if a company's revenue "more than doubles" but it's losses also more than double, it's not actually profitable on a per-unit basis; it's simply shifting items that should be reported in COGS to other items that let it artificially inflate its gross margins. In Duolingo's case, it's actually worse: while revenues doubles, losses are on track to quadruple (they reported a $13.5 million loss for just 2021Q1, compared to roughly $16 million for all of 2020).

I've worked for enough startups going public that I can spot when a startup is playing games with its financials. Duolingo is one of them. This time next year, Duolingo will be looked on as 2021's Groupon.

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#293

Post by Sanzig »

majormajor wrote: post #117
twelve40 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This Nikola thing looks pretty weird indeed, but to be fair, Musk's name for his company is also not very original, since he (or whoever) also just took the dude's name even though he had absolutely nothing to do with him.

Tesla's name is somewhat original because the connection between electricty and Tesla is certainly obvious and understandable, yet also rare enough in the US compared to Edison that it wasn't already taken. A second company then copying exactly the same association? Different thing entirely.

It's also name for the SI unit of magnetic flux density, which fits with the electric motor theme.

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#294

Post by morpheos137 »

anigbrowl wrote: post #288
morpheos137 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah actually deliving a product that sells is such legacy thinking...we badly need a hard crash to clear out the deadwood and hucksters in the economy.

I think relying on the market itself to do this is a terrible mistake.

The unsustainable economy we are in currently is less a function of market failure and more a function of excessive government interference, globalisation and technological plateauing. In a race to the bottom everybody loses. The industrial revolution took place in the context of cheap energy, new science and engineering, expensive labor and higher interest rates. Since perhaps the 1970s-1990s all these trends have been reversing.

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#295

Post by fshbbdssbbgdd »

zeusk wrote: post #291
SmellTheGlove wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like your cult is Theta Gang then! Seriously though that seems to be what the quiet crowd is doing - taking advantage of the premiums caused by the general crazy that permeates the market. I don’t know enough to sell options but I keep meaning to read up.

When your RSU and ESPP vest, open your brokerage and try selling a single 20-30% out of the money call that expires in a month. You can read about it, but actually doing it is not that hard. Although, given the inflated stock prices and US equity options being 100 sized lot - you do have to keep an eye to roll it out if market is getting really exuberant.

Warning that a lot of companies have a trading policy that forbids employees from investing in options or any kind of derivative on their own stock. You might be allowed to make options trades on other companies in the sector (not legal advice).

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#296

Post by mmdoda »

xwdv wrote: post #232

Been a long turbulent road, lots of interest payments, lots of downvotes, but soon I will be able to close out my massive short position that I opened 10 months ago against this company. Reference: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24473631

How much do you stand to make?

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#297

Post by jdminhbg »

anyfactor wrote: post #138
_game_of_life wrote: post #48

This should not be surprising to anyone. Arstechnica has followed Nikola's terrible and obvious fraud(s) for years now: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/02/nikola-admits-to-making... https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/12/nikola-stock-craters-af... https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-patented-a-stole... And many more... The speculation around this stock has been insane for many years now: https://arstechnica.c…

I browse through a lot of niche investing social media groups. One of the more liked posts on a Nikola investment group was, "If "they" cared about the future, the earth and the renewable energy issue, they would let whatever Trevor did slide." Surprisingly, I saw similar posts about Musk on the Thailand rescuer tweet and the price too high tweet. You are not betting against the fundamentals or the realities of the s…

I'm not sure creating a multibillion dollar vaporware fraud shell company and being a dick on Twitter are comparable sins.

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#298

Post by cmiller1 »

ashtonkem wrote: post #228
anyfactor wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I browse through a lot of niche investing social media groups. One of the more liked posts on a Nikola investment group was, "If "they" cared about the future, the earth and the renewable energy issue, they would let whatever Trevor did slide." Surprisingly, I saw similar posts about Musk on the Thailand rescuer tweet and the price too high tweet. You are not betting against the fundamentals or the realities of the s…

I’ve learned to cast a more cynical eye towards companies claiming to be accomplishing grand, ethical aims. Sometimes they’re right, of course, but it’s also a phenomenal way to sweep abuse and fraud under a rug.

"...villains who twirl their moustaches are easy to spot. Those who clothe themselves in good deeds are well camouflaged." -- Captain Jean-Luc Picard

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#299

Post by JamesSwift »

SmellTheGlove wrote: post #255
pvarangot wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm usually a very negative person but another side of the coin here is that if you were good at this "speculative generation of statics to captivate" the best way to raise money was "gaming" big capital. With the risk profile of retail investors changing and more risky ways to trade on public markets becoming accepted comes a positive aspect of the naturalization of highly speculative single picks on the stock marke…

It sounds like your cult is Theta Gang then! Seriously though that seems to be what the quiet crowd is doing - taking advantage of the premiums caused by the general crazy that permeates the market. I don’t know enough to sell options but I keep meaning to read up.

Check out TastyTrade for a plethora of free education on options in general, but especially selling options.

Re: Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, Nikola founder, on three counts of fraud

#300

Post by ghego1 »

caballeto wrote: post #180
Thaxll wrote: post #63

So he made billions on lies and he's going to keep those right?

Nope, the SEC demands to get all the gains back plus pay a fine. He may go bankrupt after this.

I would expected that someone like him had secured millions in offshore accounts well hidden from authorities...
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