Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen • Hacker News Board

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#211

Post by nickik » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:12 PM UTC

specialist wrote: post #69

Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. -- Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. Specifically non-gaseous, before anyone has a spaz attack. We know! Storage, transportation, distribution of H2 is not practical. Plasma Kinetics' has a…

> Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity.

They are not actually that exceptional anymore. At best they are marginally better.

Tesla new architecture of structural cells in a pack connected to massive castings is far better then Toyota EV have.

> Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave.

I really don't think that will be the cast.

> Imagine we hit "peak" Li-ion around 2030, producing 75 tWh annually. (Amazing, right?)

> From their website: Storage is 30% lighter, 7% smaller, and 17% less expensive than Lithium-ion battery per kWh.

By the time this technology is even remotely feasible. Li-Air, Li-Sulfer batteries and a whole bunch of other potential chemistries could be ready. All these more advanced chemistries can beat these advantages without issue.

Li-Sulfer battery could be 2-4x as dense ad current LiIon far smaller and far cheaper.

Even current High Nickel Cathode-Silicon Anode that will roll into the market will beat the numbers advertised by the company.

Why would anybody go refuel with solid hydrogen when you can have better range then Tesla Model S with a battery small battery pack you can put in your trunk and a tiny powerful EV motor?

A car based on the technology is simply worst along every single dimension.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#212

Post by slashdev » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:15 PM UTC

nemothekid wrote: post #153

slashdev wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So whether communism is a good idea or not remains to be seen. You are being too charitable. There is no shortage of data on communism after the last century. The results are so unequivocally bad across the board, you have to be ignorant of history or just ignorant in general to still think it's a good idea. As soon as someone tells me communism is a good thing, I realize I'm taking to someone who is not very intel…

Nazi Germany and Rwanda weren't communist. What are you saying? It would help to have a grounding on what communism is before repeating tired talking points. > with not a single example in favor. Soviet Russia went from a couple of potato farmers to a global super power in the span of 30 years under communism before transitioning to totalitarian dictatorship. Likewise there was nothing inherent to communism and more…

> Nazi Germany and Rwanda weren't communist. What are you saying?

I didn't say they were. Go back and read it again.

> Soviet Russia went from a couple of potato farmers to a global super power in the span of 30 years under communism before transitioning to totalitarian dictatorship.

No, it already was a totalitarian government from the start. Also Soviet Russia is an excellent example of the failures of communism, citing it in support is not helping your argument.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#213

Post by WorldMaker » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:19 PM UTC

specialist wrote: post #69

Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. -- Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. Specifically non-gaseous, before anyone has a spaz attack. We know! Storage, transportation, distribution of H2 is not practical. Plasma Kinetics' has a…

> Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity.

Arguably Tesla already bought that in spirit if not fact by acquiring the NUMMI plant from Toyota. (The NUMMI plant was the co-venture Toyota built in Fremont, CA in the 80s with General Motors that built Geo brand vehicles and taught 90s GM some of Toyota's agility in manufacturing. Tesla likely didn't get as much direct experience from Toyota in buying the several years shut-down plant at that point, but symbolically it feels related.)

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#214

Post by slashdev » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:20 PM UTC

simion314 wrote: post #156

slashdev wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So whether communism is a good idea or not remains to be seen. You are being too charitable. There is no shortage of data on communism after the last century. The results are so unequivocally bad across the board, you have to be ignorant of history or just ignorant in general to still think it's a good idea. As soon as someone tells me communism is a good thing, I realize I'm taking to someone who is not very intel…

I down-voted your comment because of your superiority complex, the terms like communism are too generic and the reality is that most communist countries were "kicked" in the balls by the capitalist. I seen a comment by a "intelligent dude" like you, in his intelligence he compared North and South Korea, ignored that sanctions for the North and the tons of money US dropped on south and he got the conclusion he wanted.…

There is plenty of good data. 40 counties make up around 20 independent failures out of as many attempts at implementing communism.

> I seen a comment by a "intelligent dude" like you, in his intelligence he compared North and South Korea, ignored that sanctions for the North and the tons of money US dropped on south and he got the conclusion he wanted.

Don't even get me started on the story of the two Koreas. Everything you need to build an open and shut case against communism can be found in the recent and well recorded history of those two countries.

You can object to my "superiority complex" but at the end of the day I'm still right and your still wrong. This is not one of those things where reasonable people can have differing opinions.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#215

Post by 908B64B197 » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:25 PM UTC

A new Prius is basically as expensive as a Model 3. It was great tech 10 years ago but today outside of Ubers I don't see the reason to get it as opposed to a full EV.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#216

Post by Hypx_ » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:28 PM UTC

trixie_ wrote: post #88

ianai wrote: post #64

How hard is it to concentrate hydrogen down post-production to where the Mirai/another FCV could use it? I ask, because I at least understand it's possible to separate hydrogen out of water relatively easily once you've got the water. (More and more, the ocean seems like a huge resource we're not tapping: the most lithium reserves on earth, pulling carbon out of it (for sequestration), and potential hydrogen source j…

You lose efficiency when using electricity for electrolysis, compression and transportation of hydrogen. And then through the fuel cell itself which is used to charge a battery. That entire roundabout process results in a pretty low efficiency for hydrogen. Why not skip all those steps and put the electricity right into a battery with little efficiency loss. https://insideevs.com/news/406676/battery-electric-hydrogen…

The simplest counter argument is that it’s just cheaper to go with hydrogen. People have created this narrative where “efficiency = cost” when in reality it’s more expensive to go that far in efficiency.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#217

Post by Clubber » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:29 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #99

KineticLensman wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> heavily taxing carbon emissions and having the market find the best solution? Public perception may be one reason. If a carbon emissions tax directly leads to big increases in fuel costs, it can cause problems for drivers / vehicle users for whom fuel cost is a significant concern. The 2018 Gilet Jaune protests [0] in France were partly due to public dissatisfaction with fuel price rises. Regulatory instruments (su…

There's an easy solution to that though. You redistribute all the money from a carbon tax back to the people, either equally to everyone, or better, based on income. We already know that wealthy people generate the most carbon. If that activity was taxed and then the money was given to poorer people who can't afford to transition to clean energy, it would still be a net win, because it will reduce emissions while mak…

The US would most likely invest the money, either partially or fully into the war machine.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#218

Post by WorldMaker » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:31 PM UTC

ashtonkem wrote: post #4

My pet theory is that Toyota or Honda will be on life support by the end of next decade, if not dead. They both had a huge head start in batteries with their hybrids (Honda’s first hybrid was released in 1999), and they squandered it. Hopefully the Korean car companies crush them with superior products.

Honda actually seems to "get it" in Europe and Asian markets and may be on the path to navigating this transition. Honda of America seems the dumb beast too stupid to adapt and there is probably going to be a reckoning when it stops being hugely profitable to build giant gas guzzlers in America. Honda of America seems to have zero foresight or long term plan still.

The Korean car conglomerate is definitely doing well with EVs, but if you are expecting someone to crush Toyota and/or Honda in Asian car sales especially, I'd keep an eye on Chinese EV companies. Some of them are doing wild work, and have got EV car costs down below nearly anyone else in the world with their economies of scale already. If some of those Chinese EV companies come to the American market I'm even curious if it would look just like the Honda/Toyota strategy of the 70s/80s with good value for the money cars that will surprise a lot of Americans that did not know they were looking for that sort of cheap/reliable.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#219

Post by Robotbeat » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:33 PM UTC

simonbarker87 wrote: post #148

WhompingWindows wrote: post #44

The Japanese car companies have done pretty poorly in the 2010's in supporting the energy transition. Toyota has been extremely slow to adapt after the Prius, which makes sense because of their ridiculously large volume of sales of basic, gas-efficient passenger vehicles. I give Toyota big props for the Prius, which was the original Green Vehicle 15-20 years ago, and still is a HUGE player in the efficiency space. II…

I know Americans like to hate Nissan but outside the US the Leaf was a pretty reasonable first stab at an electric car, before Tesla and is into its second rev now. It’s by no means the best one but given they were early to the market it’s a little unfair to blame all Japanese car makers.

Agreed that the Nissan Leaf was not a bad introduction to EVs. It sucks that they took so long to get to 200-250 mile EPA range, though, which really ought to be the minimum (along with 100kW DC charging) for a pure electric vehicle. But at least they were doing something.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#220

Post by Hypx_ » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 6:35 PM UTC

modeless wrote: post #16

tharne wrote: post #5

Articles like this misunderstand both innovation and capitalism. Progress isn't typically made by some unusually smart person or enterprise gazing into the future and creating the perfect thing. It happens by lots of individuals and companies making bets and guesses, most of which are wrong, but some turn out the be right. That way the overall system can be brilliant regardless of whether or not the individual actors…

Hydrogen for cars was an obvious boondoggle for a decade or more. There's making guesses and then there's ignoring obvious trends. Toyota did the latter. Edit: And to prove that I thought it was obvious a decade ago, here's my opinion from a decade ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3070004

The problem is that hydrogen has radically improved in the last decade, but batteries have not overcome it’s fundamental weaknesses. For instance, we are now see hydrogen drop to below $2/kg even with entirely green hydrogen. Fuel cells have also gotten cheaper and more reliable.

The efficiency argument might end up being the same argument made against ray-tracing in the 3D rendering world. In that instance, the upside of have correct lighting with a simple algorithm eliminated whatever upside you could get out of a faster but more complex rasterization system. Hydrogen could easily be the way to have a single simple technology that works in all transportation cases.