Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen • Hacker News Board

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#101

Post by honkycat » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:57 PM UTC

dapf wrote: post #78

bildung wrote: post #21

The FUD accusations seem a bit hasty here. The linked Senate hearing doesn't seem to contain negative things about BEVs (it only criticizes the "narrow focus" on them), but instead opts for including hybrid and hydrogen, with the argument being that "recent data shows that plug-in hybrids can achieve nearly the same or better GHG reductions than BEVs depending on your daily driving patterns, the carbon in the electri…

May I ask, what business does the Senate have on what car you would be buying?

May I ask, what business does the senate have on where I dump my toxic waste?

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#102

Post by greendave » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:58 PM UTC

ramesh31 wrote: post #41

NickM wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it will be a decade more until a 60+kwH EV is being sold for “A decade more” seems way too pessimistic given current EV prices and battery capacities. The 2022 Bolt will have a starting price of $32k with a 65kWh battery, for example.

>The 2022 Bolt will have a starting price of $32k with a 65kWh battery, for example. That's still a totally different class of car buyers. A "starting price" of $32k means no one is walking out the door with one under $40k total upfront cost. When I can walk into a dealership and finance something like that at $25k total loan amount, that changes everything.

Even back in 2019, without federal incentives, people were walking out the door with new Bolts under $30k (including tax and registration). It’s more than possible - it’s already happened. The problem is that most Americans buying new vehicles don’t want an EV hatchback - they want either a Tesla or a non-EV SUV.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#103

Post by user_7832 » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:58 PM UTC

bildung wrote: post #21

The FUD accusations seem a bit hasty here. The linked Senate hearing doesn't seem to contain negative things about BEVs (it only criticizes the "narrow focus" on them), but instead opts for including hybrid and hydrogen, with the argument being that "recent data shows that plug-in hybrids can achieve nearly the same or better GHG reductions than BEVs depending on your daily driving patterns, the carbon in the electri…

Not to exactly counter your point, but Toyota has been doing shady things for a while so I’m not sure if they can be given the benefit of doubt. The things include - going against those new California emissions standards when Trump rolled back emission limits, donating heavily to the politicians who wanted to overthrow the 2020 US elections, and having deals with Panasonic to block easy public access to batteries (better discussion here - https://reddit.com/r/technology/comments/oskyfm/_/h6p62gq/?c...)

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#104

Post by rootusrootus » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:59 PM UTC

ramesh31 wrote: post #41

NickM wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it will be a decade more until a 60+kwH EV is being sold for “A decade more” seems way too pessimistic given current EV prices and battery capacities. The 2022 Bolt will have a starting price of $32k with a 65kWh battery, for example.

>The 2022 Bolt will have a starting price of $32k with a 65kWh battery, for example. That's still a totally different class of car buyers. A "starting price" of $32k means no one is walking out the door with one under $40k total upfront cost. When I can walk into a dealership and finance something like that at $25k total loan amount, that changes everything.

When I leased my 2020 Bolt, I could have walked out the door with it on a 24K loan instead. Given that GM chose to stick with the same basic drivetrain on the latest update, I don't expect that to change for the next few years. Excepting the current weird car market that has been momentarily turned upside down by the pandemic-related supply problems.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#105

Post by JKCalhoun » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:00 PM UTC

nkingsy wrote: post #30

bildung wrote: post #21

The FUD accusations seem a bit hasty here. The linked Senate hearing doesn't seem to contain negative things about BEVs (it only criticizes the "narrow focus" on them), but instead opts for including hybrid and hydrogen, with the argument being that "recent data shows that plug-in hybrids can achieve nearly the same or better GHG reductions than BEVs depending on your daily driving patterns, the carbon in the electri…

I wonder if these arguments take into account decreased battery life with a smaller battery in a plug in hybrid. From what I know about li-ion, the larger battery should expect many more charge cycles before degradation than the smaller one, given the same power draw. There would have to be some kind of argument that the bigger battery leaves capacity on the table during its life somehow, which would mean the battery…

My laymen understanding is that all EV batteries are composed of lots of smaller cells. So a larger Tesla battery is simply more cells, not larger ones. That would put EV's and hybrids on the same level.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#106

Post by cycomanic » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:01 PM UTC

stevev wrote: post #49

In addition to not betting on evs, Toyota along with many other car makers fail to understand the human desire for safety and convenience in their vehicles through the use of current camera technologies and computer applications. A typical Tesla vehicle has 8 cameras thus providing a 360 degree vision to help assist the car/driver in a few applications. Security, safety and convenience. A close second in terms of saf…

Apart from the fact that all car makers had drive assist systems for years and this is by no means a Tesla invention, if safety measures really are the main factor for people to choosing a car, we should be seeing Volvos almost exclusively.

But your comment which asserts that only Tesla does proper drive assist says everything. Somehow Tesla managed to convince everyone that they are the only innovators and everyone else is just old. While I appreciate Teslas contribution of pushing EVs to the mainstream, I do not believe that they are the most technologically advanced of the car manufacturers.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#107

Post by BoorishBears » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:01 PM UTC

cycomanic wrote: post #96

theluketaylor wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volt was a great car and 5 years ago it was a great solution. Now that long distance road trip charging is good enough I think the value of a PHEV is greatly diminished. They are an especially poor solution to the largest charging hurdle still remaining of apartment and street parkers since PHEVs must be plugged in nightly for carbon reduction ROI. The issue isn't so much weight as volume and packaging. Having 2 powe…

That's actually not true, you significantly underestimate the weight and space requirements of batteries necessary for long range EVs. There was just a comparison by heise.de of the Mercedes Eqa and GlA [1] and in comparison of space they write that the more EV the less space, i.e. ICE>PHEV>EV

Yeah people go based on their guts drawing conclusions with this stuff, but the Volt has a 1.5L engine.

Imagine a 2L coke bottle. It's contents would overflow if you could pour it into the engine.

The Voltec system wasn't anywhere near larger than an equivalently practical BEV drivetrain.

Just like BEVs are coming out without frunks, the Volt simply didn't prioritize interior space at the time.

It was still a plenty practical vehicle, and if it had sold well it was going to get the CUV treatment

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#108

Post by b112 » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:02 PM UTC

WhompingWindows wrote: post #44

The Japanese car companies have done pretty poorly in the 2010's in supporting the energy transition. Toyota has been extremely slow to adapt after the Prius, which makes sense because of their ridiculously large volume of sales of basic, gas-efficient passenger vehicles. I give Toyota big props for the Prius, which was the original Green Vehicle 15-20 years ago, and still is a HUGE player in the efficiency space. II…

Toyota, Hyundai and Honda have all bet on H2. That's just as green, and electric as a Tesla.

The tech works, refuels 10x faster than any battery based car, but so far no adoption outside of europe and asian countries.

That's a phenomenal achievement. They chose wrong maybe, but they chose, and chose a path they though most viable.

To claim they aren't in the game is beyond unfair.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#109

Post by mobiuscog » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:02 PM UTC

There are still huge numbers of car owners who do not have off-site parking to charge EVs. Unless EV public charging is able to 'refuel' completely in a couple of minutes, going 100% electric is just not feasible.

There is no way most governments will be able to provide suitable infrastructure in the near future.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#110

Post by fiftyfifty » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:02 PM UTC

MelvinButtsESQ wrote: post #19

Production of batteries is the constraint ... previously, currently, and in foreseeable future ( Further, given this capacity, the numbers work out such that we are, on the macro level, DRASTICALLY more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly by putting more hybrids and Plug-in Hybrids (which have fewer batteries) on the road than we are by reserving said batteries for fewer pure EVs. 2.5 Priuses are better than…

This is true in theory, but in practice I think hybrids are the worst of both worlds. I've had two Toyota Priuses and a Honda Civic Hybrid all of which we drove to around 150,000 miles each. One of our Priuses and the Civic Hybrid needed their hybrid batteries replaced during their lifetime. Not only was this a significant cost but I've got to believe that it negates a lot of the environmental benefits of the vehicle. It's not an uncommon problem either, there are plenty of 3rd parties selling refurbished hybrid battery packs, it's a common enough problem that a whole industry has built up around it. In addition both of our Priuses started burning oil at some point over 100,000 miles. This is a notorious problem with the Prius and there are lots of discussions about the problem in online forums. It certainly ruins any illusion I had about clean emissions from the cars over the course of it's life. I never fail to notice the little puff of grey smoke when behind Priuses at stop lights when the engine starts up again, so much for being the clean air poster child.

We have a Tesla Model 3 now with about 50,000 miles on it, we've only seen about a 2-3% decrease in range so far, if even that. The only maintenance so far has been refilling the washer fluid and we've replaced the tires once. I see no reason why it won't easily go to 150,000+ miles. The difference with the hybrids we have had is night and day, it's not even close. Toyota does not have a winning hand to play here and they know it. They bet on the wrong tech and they are tied down by a dealer network that is dependent on maintenance costs to support them.