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France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

sciencemag.org

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Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#151

Post by acoard »

jarvic wrote: post #70
jonplackett wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Never been shown to” is the kind of false speak I keep hearing from the government and media. Just because you’ve never tried it doesn’t mean you have shown something.

There is a difference between "never been shown to" and "shown to never".

Scientists (and logicians) avoid saying "shown to never", as it's much harder - almost impossible - to prove a negative[0]. This is also a black swan[1] type situation. The only way you can say something is never something is if you understand all occurrences of it; otherwise you can only report on what you've been shown.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)#P...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#152

Post by Johnny555 »

myWindoonn wrote: post #126
tyingq wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's "effective" mean in this context? The anthrax letters in the US in 2001 certainly dominated news cycles.

The most effective bioterror attack in the USA was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Rajneeshee_bioterror_atta... and it killed zero people, affecting 751 people in total. Bioterror is expensive and difficult. For prions specifically, the main "problem" (which is a good thing overall for us) is that they're naked proteins, and they denature relatively quickly when outside of a protective environment. Spray them onto…

Can’t you just spray them into a hamburger meat grinder at a meat packing plant to protect the prions in beef? But it’d be a pretty ineffective terror attack if it takes 10 years for people to show symptoms… though that could also mean that attack was already made 5 years ago and we just don’t know yet.

Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#153

Post by inglor_cz »

da_big_ghey wrote: post #118
triceratops wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find prions unbelievably scary too. What reassures me is that they've had about 3 billion years to wipe out life on earth and haven't done it yet. Which means there must be some natural limits on their spread we don't know about yet.

Because we have had many population isolated. Indians never got black plague because Europeans isolated, but got smallpox when Europeans show up. Syphilis was deadly until making of penicilin, probably came back with Europeans from Indians. If whole world is connected then disease maybe can go through whole population.

Prions infect animals of all sorts as well, so isolation of human populations is of lesser importance here.

If, say, oceanic fish were susceptible to some easily transmitted prions, you would have a worldwide epidemics in no time. Fish form a crucial part of almost all food chains on the planet.

Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#154

Post by knownjorbist »

echelon wrote: post #150
jamespwilliams wrote: post #17

Hm: "long period of uncertainty began on 31 May 2010, when she stabbed her left thumb with a curved forceps while cleaning a cryostat—a machine that can cut tissues at very low temperatures—that she used to slice brain sections from transgenic mice infected with a sheep-adapted form of BSE . She pierced two layers of latex gloves and drew blood" Later in the article: ""We conduct research only on mouse-adapted sheep…

When lab workers studying the very thing they know best can make lethal mistakes, it's surprising that so many jumped to quell any hypothesis of a covid lab leak. Scientists make mistakes all the time. They're human. Imagine all of the mistakes you make in your job. Outages. Stupid bugs. It's the same with any profession.

You are conflating lab leak with intentionally crafted bioweapon.

Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#156

Post by coldtea »

acoard wrote: post #151
jarvic wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a difference between "never been shown to" and "shown to never".

Scientists (and logicians) avoid saying "shown to never", as it's much harder - almost impossible - to prove a negative[0]. This is also a black swan[1] type situation. The only way you can say something is never something is if you understand all occurrences of it; otherwise you can only report on what you've been shown. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)#P... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org…

>This is also a black swan[1] type situation

So one that is almost certain to happen given some time?

>The only way you can say something is never something is if you understand all occurrences of it;

"Understanding all occurences of it" seems like a good criterion for allowing potentially mass murderous work or not. That said, it sounds stricter than what it is. We just need them to know how a thing works and not be doing "sorcerer's apprentices" style peek and poke work.

They don't need to "prove a negative". For example we don't asks scientists to prove that "water can't explode and destroy the earth" to let them work with it casually. It's enough that they know it well. Do they know prion as well as they do water?

Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#157

Post by echelon »

knownjorbist wrote: post #154
echelon wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When lab workers studying the very thing they know best can make lethal mistakes, it's surprising that so many jumped to quell any hypothesis of a covid lab leak. Scientists make mistakes all the time. They're human. Imagine all of the mistakes you make in your job. Outages. Stupid bugs. It's the same with any profession.

You are conflating lab leak with intentionally crafted bioweapon.

A bioweapon that can't be targeted doesn't seem very useful, does it?

Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#158

Post by [deleted] »

hallway_monitor wrote: post #104
imglorp wrote: post #6

> She had not been trained in handling dangerous prions or responding to accidents and did not wear both metal mesh and surgical gloves, as she was supposed to, says Julien Bensimhon, the family’s lawyer. The thumb should have been soaked in a bleach solution immediately, which did not happen, Bensimhon adds. Does bleach even affect proteins? Isn't that protocol for an organism you're afraid of?

I was thinking what if she amputated her thumb immediately? It seems like an extreme reaction, but could it have prevented her infection and death?

[deleted]

Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#159

Post by bluGill »

aqsalose wrote: post #60
Reventlov wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they're gonna stop studying until they have reviewed all the security protocols regarding the handling of prions, and this, nationwide.

There are reviews and then there are reviews: Rubber stamp security reviews happen. I don't know much about this particular case, but I think, in general, a trustworthy review needs to be conducted by an independent body with genuine power (edit. and desire ) to order things to halt permanently if they can not be made safe enough (and then there is a separate question of who makes the call "what is safe enough").

>(and then there is a separate question of who makes the call "what is safe enough").

This is hard. If there isn't the right incentive they can decide nothing is safe enough. This ensures safety now, but it means that if a cure is possible it won't be discovered (or anything else useful from the research). The FDA has been accused of needlessly holding up useful drugs on this grounds (I'm not going to comment on if true or not)

Re: France issues moratorium on prion research after fatal brain disease strikes

#160

Post by garmaine »

knownjorbist wrote: post #154
echelon wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When lab workers studying the very thing they know best can make lethal mistakes, it's surprising that so many jumped to quell any hypothesis of a covid lab leak. Scientists make mistakes all the time. They're human. Imagine all of the mistakes you make in your job. Outages. Stupid bugs. It's the same with any profession.

You are conflating lab leak with intentionally crafted bioweapon.

Is he? He only talked about lab leaks. You brought up the nonsense bioweapon theory.
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