Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stocks, real estate are the best imho. Crypto has too much volatility, low correlation. BTC fell in half. not a reliable hedge.
Stocks are vastly superior to real-estate. Businesses with reliable growth and some pricing power. The S&P500 has generated approximately a 266% return in the past 20 years (ex any dividends). The average home sale price has climbed by just under 100% in that time. Real-estate will nail you annually on property taxes (although not in every state) and you have to maintain it (let's assume a best case and you own it wi…
Why are used cars so expensive right now?
71–80 of 110 posts
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#72Now's the time to sell a car if you have an extra to spare. One of the few times in history when cars actually appreciate. A car I bought for 53k 4 years ago I could've sold for 55k last week until I got cold feet. lol
I just noticed a '86 toyota truck on CL going with an asking price of $28,000.00 I noticed it because I like their trucks, especially the 22r/re ones. It did have less than 30,000 miles though. The price of that truck is no more than 5 grand, even with the low miles. (Anyone looking for a ride, I have this tip. When four door vehicles are aging out of what Uber demands, they price of the used vechicle goes way down.…
If you're in California or southern US they probably last a lot longer. The 22RE engine is very good.
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#73Now's the time to sell a car if you have an extra to spare. One of the few times in history when cars actually appreciate. A car I bought for 53k 4 years ago I could've sold for 55k last week until I got cold feet. lol
I’ve had folks who found out I’m about to take delivery of a Model Y offer me ~$10k over list if they can buy it immediately after I take delivery. It’s insane. (we’re keeping it of course)
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#74I like that everyone readily understands the supply/demand phenomenon as it relates to the price of used cars, but many people are unable or unwilling to grasp the relationship between the supply of new houses and the prices of used houses.
What about land? My house is relatively inexpensive, the land it's on is worth like 10x as much.
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
What about land? My house is relatively inexpensive, the land it's on is worth like 10x as much.
The supply for land isn't great. The demand tends to grow over time. If there was a "new land" factory it could help!
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just did and got a good price. The only problem is I'll probably need to buy another once Covid calms down and we go back to work. I'm going to try to use public transit and cycling for a bit, but the reality is I'll need to get another car within a year. Hopefully someone has a small, cheap electric by then.
Is Covid going to calm down, what comes after Delta?
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#77So now with more competition for goods and services, prices go up because there is more money than there are goods and services. I work with businesses in the trades (auto repair, plumbers, HVAC, insulation, etc) and they are all at full throttle, and cannot handle any more work. So those companies are going to start raising their prices. But this happens in all areas of products and services. There's just not enough stuff.
As a result, there's inflation. Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. I lived through the 1980s, where there was an inflation rate of 16 to 18%. This means, let's say you have $10,000 in the bank, in 1 year, the purchasing power is $8,200. The next year it will have the purchasing power of $6,724. The third year your original $10,000 will be worth $5,513. Your bank account will still be $10,000, it's just that you'll only be able to buy $5,513 worth of products and services, on the average.
The way to protect oneself is to buy stuff, and not keep any cash in the bank account. If you purchase $10,000 worth of canned food today, the value of it will remain the same over time, because you purchased, oh, let's say 10,000 cans of food, but in 3 years, you would only be able to buy 5,513 cans of food. So you get rid of cash as fast as you can. But instead of buying food, which you might do, you also buy houses, cars, anything. Because those things, when you sell them, will be the same price. If a can of peas goes from $1 to $3 over 3 years, you can sell your 10,000 cans of food for $30,000, if you could, so you still have the same amount of purchasing power. It's not the worth of the things that changed, it is the worth of the money to buy the things decreases.
This is well-known, so people with a lot of money are buying second houses or anything else to get rid of cash. So the world is awash in cash, but runs out of stuff to sell, and prices go up. It is a vicious circle, and keeps spiraling out of control, and eventually you can get into hyperinflation, where you can have $1 trillion dollars to buy a loaf of bread. Here is a list of countries that have experienced hyperinflation: https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/7/14/426795-134... Most recently, Zimbabwe had hyperinflation and here look at the money supply: https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/7/14/426795-134... They just started printing more and more money, until it got out of control.
In Venezuela in 2016, inflation reached 1,000,000%. This means that if it took $1 to buy a loaf of bread in 2015, a loaf of bread would cost $1,000,000 in 2016. And so, the government would be forced to print $1,000,000 bills. In April 2019, the International Monetary Fund estimated that inflation would reach 10,000,000% by the end of 2019. Here is a real 50 trillion bank note from Zimbabwe due to their hyperinflation: https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0251/2392/products/zimbabw...
This is the exact same thing the USA is doing with unemployment benefits, and people make as much or more than in their jobs, and they don't have to pay rent at all, so all that money goes into all kinds of stuff. The USA is effectively printing up money.
Will the USA end up like Zimbabwe? Almost guaranteed not to, as we have a lot stronger economy, but no one knows the future with certainty.
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#78Are distributors holding zillions of unsellable obscure level shifters or CPLDs or something?
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. Nobody dares yet to tell it's inflation.
High demand and low supply due to supply chain slowness doesn't immediately translate to price inflation. Prices go up in this scenario but the question is if it's just temporary (meaning supply eventually meets demand or demand goes away over time) or it is in fact permanent inflation.
Re: Why are used cars so expensive right now?
#80Now's the time to sell a car if you have an extra to spare. One of the few times in history when cars actually appreciate. A car I bought for 53k 4 years ago I could've sold for 55k last week until I got cold feet. lol
I just noticed a '86 toyota truck on CL going with an asking price of $28,000.00 I noticed it because I like their trucks, especially the 22r/re ones. It did have less than 30,000 miles though. The price of that truck is no more than 5 grand, even with the low miles. (Anyone looking for a ride, I have this tip. When four door vehicles are aging out of what Uber demands, they price of the used vechicle goes way down.…
Small, lightweight pickups are no longer being manufactured. And Toyota’s are ridiculously reliable. My old truck still ran like new with nothing but regular oil changes and a one-time replacement of the spark plugs.