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Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

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Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#121
post #101
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All credit to her for an extremely strong ride. And a better strategy, which is a major part of competition. People commenting on her being lucky. She had a better strategy.

The others had no strategy because they didn't know she were upfront.

Other than showing up on time for the race, step one of your plan for winning is knowing the position of your competitors. This is road racing 101.

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#122
post #63
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In professional cycling the Ride as Hard as You Can people are necessary but often don’t achieve any real rank on the team. They might not even finish a tour, either having not budgeted enough for the late stages, or being so new that they can’t understand how tired they’re gonna be later. Their claim to fame may be limited to being on the top team, it might be being on a top 5 team. If you’re lucky you team may plac…

> I’m racking my brain trying to remember who was on Delgado’s team and coming up completely blank. Delgado had Miguel Induráin [1] working for him, hardly an unknown rider. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miguel_Indur%C3%A1in

Oops. Seems I have flipped Delgado and Indurain in my head. Which I should have realized when the wikipedia page seemed to be understating his win history.

Who was Indurain's right hand?

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#123

(More related to the comments than the article) I've seen tons of takes on this since watching the end of the race this morning and, although it certainly played a part in deciding the outcome, it's a shame that more focus has seemed to be on making excuses or how the Dutch riders messed things up instead of Dr Kiesenhofer's incredible story and ride. Kiesenhofer was on a fantastic day: van Vleuten's earlier attack f…

In giro they have radio communications from the team manager. In the Olympics they don't have that, they can't tell them the differences.

Also winning when the opponents are not really trying to catch you it's not really a story either. It happens a lot even when they know a rider is upfront in order to save energy for second place and not give a free ride to other cyclists -see how Carapaz won in men events where only Wout tried to catch him. The real story is the mistake from the dutch team that could have catch her but missinterpreted the situation.

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#124
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you need to tell riders about the gaps?

Because otherwise the Olympics for road cycling and actual high-level road cycling races become totally different things. The entire game of road cycling races is based on judging these gaps. Without it, you would probably never let anyone ride off. Then races become attrition, followed by sprint. Either that or you get a weird spotting system where people try to get gap timings to the riders through unofficial chann…

I'm talking about the whole of cycling, not just the Olympics, so the first point doesn't stand.

Do you really prefer the spectacle of the peloton letting a breakaway head off into the distance, knowing that in 95% of cases they can just reel it back in just enough not to have an effect on the GC? Today just showed how exciting it is when people can head off down the road far enough for the others not to know what's going on. I think on balance I prefer attrition followed by sprint, although I'd contend that's a micharacterisation of what would actually happen.

Besides, isn't that exactly what the TDF used to be and what turned it into the best cycling race in the world? This year's TDF at least gave us a glimpse of what it could be like when someone rips up the rule book and the Sky train doesn't optimise the entire race into irrelevance.

I also think that there are enough cameras around to stop unofficial channels. And who's to say whether the person on the roadside is someone who's for you and giving you good information or against you and feeding you lies?

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#125
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because otherwise the Olympics for road cycling and actual high-level road cycling races become totally different things. The entire game of road cycling races is based on judging these gaps. Without it, you would probably never let anyone ride off. Then races become attrition, followed by sprint. Either that or you get a weird spotting system where people try to get gap timings to the riders through unofficial chann…

I'm talking about the whole of cycling, not just the Olympics, so the first point doesn't stand. Do you really prefer the spectacle of the peloton letting a breakaway head off into the distance, knowing that in 95% of cases they can just reel it back in just enough not to have an effect on the GC? Today just showed how exciting it is when people can head off down the road far enough for the others not to know what's…

This sounds like a much better sport.

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#126
post #18

Some additional context for those who don't follow professional cycling: the Dutch women's team was incredibly strong coming into this road race. All 4 riders on their team are stars in their own right, and the only reason there wasn't a clear favorite for the race overall is that people weren't sure which Dutch rider would win. So you have a complicated group dynamic, where the majority of the peloton has no interes…

Is it possible that an outlier, an amateur, a lone wolf, was able for a moment to draw the strength and determination that would lead to victory and not even the best in the world stood a chance. Of is as you say....she was lucky and her victory was just a series of unfortunate circumstances for the other riders. I want to believe that there was no one that day that could beat her.

By definition there was no-one that day that could beat her. It’s an empirical outcome, not a theoretic one.

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#127
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All credit to her for an extremely strong ride. And a better strategy, which is a major part of competition. People commenting on her being lucky. She had a better strategy.

I mean, it worked in this case, but winning from the break, especially for an important race like this, is rare. They were definitely lucky.

Road cycling is one of the sports where giving luck room to happen is a perfectly legitimate part of the game. Did others have a better hand? Maybe, but they failed to play it.

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#128
post #4

This is incredible, but some of the headlines of "amateur wins gold versus pros" are a little misleading. She was with a pro-team, she is the current Austrian time-trial champion and had devoted herself to making this happen over the pandemic. Meanwhile the Dutch World Champion didn't know she was ahead, so didn't chase her. I love the story, but it isn't a simple amateur beating out all the pros story.

I think it is fair. Compared to the Dutch, she was an amateur. No coaching and no funding. All of her training was solo. That should have put her at a disadvantage.

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#129
post #72
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All credit to her for an extremely strong ride. And a better strategy, which is a major part of competition. People commenting on her being lucky. She had a better strategy.

Breaks are rarely a winning strategy (on mountains they are, but those are a pure display of strength and will-power). Granted she is a mathematician and might be literate in road racing strategy but I'm sure a lot of that strategy is down to experience which she doesn't have.

When you’re extremely unlikely to win by conventional means then a high variance strategy is the best way to maximize your chances of winning. Sure, if you play this race out 50 times maybe she only wins 1 time by breaking away and hoping other riders flub up their response. But what were her odds of winning by staying with the peloton? 1/100? 1/200?

As you said, she’s a mathematician - she knew exactly what she was doing.

Re: Anna Kiesenhofer: Mathematician, amateur cyclist, Olympic champion

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, it worked in this case, but winning from the break, especially for an important race like this, is rare. They were definitely lucky.

If you're losing then it's a good idea to take actions that increase the variance of the possible outcomes.

Exactly, she was one of many underdog competitors, best bet for her is not a good one, but it can work, get in a break and hope for screw ups behind. That doesn't get you a win very often, but its not very rare either.
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