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Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

arstechnica.com

41–50 of 120 posts

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#41
> What the legion critics of Bezos and Blue Origin miss is that the company legitimately has the goal of ultimately saving planet Earth. While Tuesday’s flight was clearly self-serving for Bezos, Blue Origin has follow-on projects in the works to support moving heavy industry from the surface of our planet into space.

I can't wait to see the most polluting industries, like agriculture or construction moved to space. I can't wait to see how heat-producing heavy industries intend to cool down in space either.

Great journalism here. Just repeat corporate bullshit without an ounce of critical thinking.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#42

Bezos should give BO to SpaceX (or maybe Rocket Lab) to run, much like Buffet gave the bulk of his money to the Gates Foundation. It will a) put the best person on the job, b) close down an unnecessary spat and c) remove the opportunity cost and let Bezos focus on other things. It would be a win for everyone on Earth apart from ULA.

Right, because of that famous economic principle that monopolies create the best and most efficient technologies, and competition is bad.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is he could buy a lot of time to save the business. He's not "running out of time". The entire article just feels like: woe is the billionaire's pet project failing because it's not profitable in an unreasonably short amount of time despite plenty of cash availability if said billionaire wants to continue and achieve their original goals.

Is 20 years an unreasonable amount of time?

Where did anybody expect Blue Origin, SpaceX and Virgin Galactic by this point? 17-20 years of R&D, building on decades of rocket science and space exploration, consulting with NASA et al. and between the three of them, only 1 has been able to send humans into orbit and that was only very recent.

20 years to go from a pile of cash and no experience, to a full production line of safe orbit-capable launch vehicles is a very big ask. SpaceX has achieved that, but at the cost of many of its employees (just look at the press around SpaceX working conditions).

Yes, it's longer than the time between the Mercury missions and Apollo 11, but the 50s-60s era of space travel was significantly higher risk. If corners could be cut in the same way, no doubt 20 years would have been fairly reasonable. Add in an existing presence in space R&D and the shorter time frames of the space shuttle program seem even more reasonable. But that just isn't possible in today's safety first world.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I truly don't know how anyone can believe a word Elon Musk says at this point. I'm not saying I trust Bezos either, but Elon has burned any shred of credibility he ever had.

The government and private industry find him very credible when purchasing launch services. Wall St and private investors find him very credible when raising capital. And those people are far more credible than you, an anonymous commenter on HN.

you’re missing the point of GP. Musk has over promised and under delivered for a long time. Wall St/investors don’t believe Musk. They believe in Tesla and/or SpaceX. Musk is neither of those. He may be the big boss, but thousands of people work to make those things a reality. Thousands.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t almost all of his wealth in Amazon stock? Regardless, no one is wealthy enough to keep a business of this scale going just as a hobby project.

He's said he plans to sell 1 billion of Amazon stock a year to fund Blue Origin. That seems like enough to keep it going, and as long as Amazon continues at or above its current share price, Bezos does appear to be wealthy enough to keep this going as a hobby project for at least a few decades.

Wasn't there a recent controversy about him asking for a $10B US grant/loan/whatever?

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#46
post #6

"projects in the works to support moving heavy industry from the surface of our planet into space. ... To set humanity on this environmentally sustainable path" How is moving - literally - heavy industry into space environmentally friendly?

There's no environment in space, so displacing heavy industry on Earth (which does have an environment) with industry in space would theoretically be a good thing. This depends on exactly where in space you do this, though, and the number of rocket launches on Earth required to support heavy industry in space could have a significant impact on the environment.

I think it partially depends on how you go about it.

If you’re moving heavy industry to Earth orbit and supporting it entirely with material shipments from earth, yeah that seems like a no-go.

On the other hand, if it’s the moon, asteroid belt, or even Mars we’re talking about, you really just need enough launches to bootstrap the operation. The bulk of other materials can procured locally, reducing the number of launches to just those getting personnel to the stations, which would be dramatically fewer in number and less than a rounding error in terms of emissions (each rocket launch is roughly equal to a commercial flight, the latter of which there are tens of thousands each year).

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#47
My summary: till around 2015 Blue Origin and SpaceX seemed like peer competitors; since then SpaceX pulled way ahead. Bezos and Musk have quite different long-term visions, with Musk into Mars settlement and Bezos into moving Earth-based energy and industry into space using space resources, inspired by Gerard K. O'Neill, etc. The article asks whether Bezos is committed enough to get his company to really compete.

It's offputting to see so much hate in the comments here. I'm not a fan of some things about Amazon, but I want SpaceX to face serious competition, and I see space development as more promising than Mars development.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#48

> What the legion critics of Bezos and Blue Origin miss is that the company legitimately has the goal of ultimately saving planet Earth Does it? I feel like we've seen tons of companies advertise lofty humanist goals, only to back away from them and declare "Actually we're a business and we serve our customers. It's not our job to save the world."

You must be mistaken. That's legitimately his goal.

People missing that also usually miss the following:

* What the legion critics of Zuck and Facebook miss is that the company legitimately has the goal of connecting people

* What the legion critics of Page and Google miss is that the company legitimately has the goal of doing no evil

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#49
post #6

"projects in the works to support moving heavy industry from the surface of our planet into space. ... To set humanity on this environmentally sustainable path" How is moving - literally - heavy industry into space environmentally friendly?

There's no environment in space, so displacing heavy industry on Earth (which does have an environment) with industry in space would theoretically be a good thing. This depends on exactly where in space you do this, though, and the number of rocket launches on Earth required to support heavy industry in space could have a significant impact on the environment.

Where does heat go, though.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#50
> What the legion critics of Bezos and Blue Origin miss is that the company legitimately has the goal of ultimately saving planet Earth.

> Bezos has a compelling vision for space, and it is entirely genuine.

> He has the vision. He has the money. But at the age of 57, does he have enough years or willingness to ensure Blue Origin’s success?

The central thesis of the article seems to boil down to the above quotations, i.e., he's genuine and his goals are noble, but can he pull it off?

The "legitimate", "entirely genuine", and "compelling vision" to "ultimately sav[e] planet Earth" given in this speech is central to the argument, but it is barely even outlined in this article or linked articles -- beyond referencing O'Neill cylinders, mining asteroids, and vague notions of leaving Earth as a "garden". There seems to be no recording or transcript of this speech, nor even any second-hand justification for how legitimate, genuine, or compelling it is.

To me it all seems like the usual ludicrous utopianism that gets attached to space projects. Mine some asteroids, sure. But I see nothing here that even hints at a way to meaningfully reduce or stop environmentally destructive practices here on Earth. We will need to solve our Earth-bound problems. Bezos can focus on Blue Origin or not, it won't matter.

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