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Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

nytimes.com

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Re: Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

#21

Post by magneticnorth »

donatj wrote: post #17
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. We'll survive, as a species, even if many will suffer - droughts, famine, mass migrations, conflicts stemming from both, extreme hot and cold weather in houses designed for more temperate climates for people used to temperate climates. Or to put it more harshly, the wealthy will be able to adapt. A lot of people will suffer and/or die.

Are you implying all those Inuits and desert tribes are clearly loaded?

When inuits and desert tribes adapted, my understanding is they were either able to adapt on their own timeline (moving gradually into harsher climates as they figured out how to stay in their summer camps longer into the fall) or they suffered immense population loss during the move, and it was a small number of survivors that rebuilt the population. There aren't a lot of records from when humans first moved to now-populated parts of the world, so I could be wrong.

That said, climate change is going to force us all into rapid adaption as plant and animal life die off, glacial streams and rivers dry up for good, sea level rises, etc. It will be easier to survive if you can afford the more expensive food and water, can afford to install the most-effective fire break around your home, can afford the expensive land in still-habitable places.

Re: Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

#23

Post by xadhominemx »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #13
xadhominemx wrote: post #6

I don’t want understate the impact of climate change, but if the author is comparing the dryness of 2021 specifically to 1993… 1993 was the 5th wettest year in California since the 1930s, and 2021 is a drought year.

The changes he's observing are not just from one year of drought. He specifically highlights a fire in 2018 leaving hills blackened and bare. In summer, the water comes not from rainfall but glaciers that are supposed to build up during winter. It's not just from this year.

That’s an even better example of my point. The size and frequency of wildfires overall is increasing, but the probability of a fire striking one particular area in a given 10 year period (ie, burn scar still obvious) is still very low.

Re: Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

#24

Post by lotsofpulp »

donatj wrote: post #18
lotsofpulp wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans have been around 6M years. The Earth has been around 4.5B years. I find the idea “we” will adapt because of humans’ success in adapting over a minute fraction of the Earth’s existence remarkably laughable. People are also concerned about quality of life, not just survival.

We adapted to its harshest climates over a remarkably small timeframe, something that took other species eons. I think you’ve made my point.

The dataset is too small to “make” any point. 6M years out of 4.5B years( or even more if you expand out into the universe) is a fluke.

The climate can change faster than we can, and we can destroy each other or set each other pretty far back technologically. Either way, there are myriad reasons that the relatively recent past need not be indicative of the future.

Re: Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

#25

Post by JKCalhoun »

sparker72678 wrote: post #19
donatj wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you implying all those Inuits and desert tribes are clearly loaded?

Pretty sure they’re implying that in this day and age wealthy people can more easily move/acquire resources to survive than those with fewer.

The thinking though feels a little narrow. If the non-wealthy (i.e. the vast majority of the planet) are driven to tribalism, rioting, war or otherwise die off what sustains the "wealthy"? A vast underground bomb-hardened prepper cache?

The wealthy fleeing global warming feels like it will merely be a footnote in Chapter 1 of what will eventually play out.

I worry not simply for the planet but for my children, my grandchildren, and yours, all of ours, as well.

Re: Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

#26

Post by lotsofpulp »

scottLobster wrote: post #20
lotsofpulp wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans have been around 6M years. The Earth has been around 4.5B years. I find the idea “we” will adapt because of humans’ success in adapting over a minute fraction of the Earth’s existence remarkably laughable. People are also concerned about quality of life, not just survival.

It's not about timescales, it's about technology. We're sophisticated enough to maintain populations in pretty much every environment at this point, albeit at greater cost depending on which environment. As for quality of life, those unwilling to adjust their expectations will filter themselves out. There are plenty of anti-natalists on Reddit proudly proclaiming they'll never have kids because the world already suck…

“Time” is a parameter in the equation for maintaining an environment suitable for human life.

See Easter Island’s history for an example.

Re: Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

#27

Post by quesera »

donatj wrote: post #17
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. We'll survive, as a species, even if many will suffer - droughts, famine, mass migrations, conflicts stemming from both, extreme hot and cold weather in houses designed for more temperate climates for people used to temperate climates. Or to put it more harshly, the wealthy will be able to adapt. A lot of people will suffer and/or die.

Are you implying all those Inuits and desert tribes are clearly loaded?

Inuits and Bedouins are at or near (or some meaningful fraction of) carrying capacity for their environment.

Reducing (formerly) temperate-area population density to Inuit levels would be catastrophic.

Yes, humans as a species would survive. But that's about all you can say.

Re: Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

#28

Post by throwkeep »

friseurtermin wrote: post #7

> Now, almost 30 years later, in what might be the most profound shift of all, the power dynamic between humans and Yosemite has changed. To see nature so vulnerable not only feels depressing, but wrong, disorienting and scary. Beautiful piece, but that's hardly the whole story. Nature doesn't care about climate change and it couldn't care less about us. Sure, it might kill all the birds, trees, landscapes, but our p…

If you look at it from a global perspective, there are more forests now, up by 7% since 1982. Some regions see decreased life, others increased life:

"Here we analyse 35 years’ worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982–2016. We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0411-9

Re: Opinion: What I Saw in Yosemite Was Devastating

#30

Post by throw_bollinger »

snypher wrote: post #3

You think that's devastating? Go check out what happens at 6001 Bollinger Canyon Rd, San Ramon, CA.

(throwaway, not connecting my workplace to my main acct.)

I work across the street from 6001 Bollinger and went to check it out on a whim. Looks pretty mundane. What exactly am I supposed to be looking for? Is it the fact that it's a Chevron corporate campus?

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