Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have a higher evidentiary threshold when it comes to results that contradict common-sense, or that suggest changing your current behaviour? Of course sometimes counterintuitive results turn out to be real, but most the time the "follow the science" people are getting prematurely excited.
I think the reverse direction is much worse, like anti-vaxx, and the general anti-intellectualism of the common.
Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
461–470 of 491 posts
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#462Earlier quoted context omitted.
is an institution not a group of people as well? People with consciences, moralities and other human emotions? If not, what's the difference to any other organisation such as, in an absolute extreme form, an army or a "terror"group apart from the agenda. Really curious, not trying to construct a strawman!
> is an institution not a group of people as well? People with consciences, moralities and other human emotions? Yes, but the point being made is that in the case of organizations the whole doesn't necessarily have the properties of its constituent parts. > If not, what's the difference to any other organisation such as, in an absolute extreme form, an army or a "terror"group apart from the agenda. Not sure what you…
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#463Earlier quoted context omitted.
I haven't, but I'm unclear why it's relevant given that you don't seem to really be disagreeing! The NSF denies 80% of grant applications because there is a radical oversupply of people who want to be scientists and the NSF has a finite budget. That by itself doesn't create accountability any more than the fact that lots of people want to be movie stars creates accountability for actors. That's not how accountability…
> I haven't, but I'm unclear why it's relevant given that you don't seem to really be disagreeing! It's relevant because you are criticizing the process but you don't seem to understand how it actually works. Your original characterization was that grant money is "this firehose of tax money being sprayed everywhere without even the slightest bit of accountability in how it's used." The reality is, when I get grant mo…
> when I get grant money I need to account for how every dollar is spent
Yes I know, but that's not what I mean by accountability. Again: nobody is upset with academics because of expenses scandals or taking too many expensive flights. Well, except maybe for climatologists who supposedly take more flights than the average academic, but that's due to the perception of hypocrisy rather than concern over cost.
People are getting upset because when they download and read papers, the papers turn out to be bad and there are no visible consequences for that. Even just getting a clearly fraudulent paper retracted is reported to be a nightmare, according to people who search for scientific fraud as a hobby like Elizabeth Bik. And I've read endless reams of terrible papers that were useless or outright deceptive, I tried reporting a few and nobody ever cared.
Now, you're arguing that there is accountability of the following form:
> It's accountability in the form of: if you didn't do what you promised you'd do, then you don't get any more money
This is true given that scientists are promising the NSF to publish papers, not strictly speaking to do research, and therefore by implication promising to come up with interesting claims, not necessarily true claims. But that's not what we want.
This is an inevitable problem with government funding of research. The buyer, the government, cannot really check if the claims they're buying from scientists are true, so they need proxies like did it get published, did it get cited, etc. But those aren't the same things. Corporate research doesn't have this problem because the corporate will try to apply the research at some point and if it was fraudulent they will discover it at that point, and of course they're strongly incentivized to ensure it never gets to that point in the first place.
In theory the government could write grants in such a way that money is awarded independent of what claims end up being made, instead awarding money for the quality of work done. That's what you're arguing for here. And indeed corporate labs write contracts in this exact way. Scientists get a salary in a corporate lab, they don't have to write grants. They do have to convince their management chain that the research is worth funding, but there are many different ways to do that which don't involve continually publishing astonishing claims in scientific journals.
You're asking me to propose how science should work instead but, indeed, you already know my answer: eliminate the NSF completely, and stop subsidizing student loans. All science should be funded by companies. They have already solved the problems you're treating as novel / intractable above. Scientists are awarded salaries and promotions by firms on a more flexible basis than the NSF. Importantly, they are rewarded for doing research not producing claims. Companies can do this because they have management structures sufficiently well staffed to closely monitor what scientists are doing. That means if a firm is truly committed to research then the scientists will get paid even if their programme has some dry years. Plus there's a huge body of law handling fraud and corruption in the workplace.
At the same time, firms are incentivized to eliminate the research that is probably always going to be nearly useless. Outside of firms selling books or self help courses I doubt many would subsidize sociology or gender studies for example, and it's also unclear that would be a loss.
Your argument about who it would or wouldn't be good for seems a bit contradictory and I struggled to follow it. You're arguing it would be both bad for Google and Microsoft yet also make them stronger. I disagree with both possibilities: I think they would hardly notice the difference and it wouldn't affect how powerful they are. Having worked for one of those companies and also worked at a startup where we often read research papers in a certain subfield of CS with views to maybe applying them, my view is that even in the relatively good field of computer science, most academic output is useless and has no impact. These firms do not rely heavily on government funded research:
- The web was very briefly funded for a couple of years as a side project of CERN, but then R&D was taken over by the private sector where it remained ever since. Page & Brin never even finished their PhD before moving their research into the private sector! It's hardly a mystery where the next Google will come from - probably the same place the previous one did, a garage in Silicon Valley.
- What government funded tech was Microsoft built on? The internet? Microsoft is still with us in spite of the internet, not because of it! Or are you going back to military computers in World War 2? Military R&D is different, governments can fund that semi-effectively because they actually use the outputs.
- Neural networks were a backwater until Jeff Dean resurrected the field using the resources of the private sector, academia has been chasing to catch up ever since.
There are a lot of other examples. The DARPA Grand Challenge is not an example of what I'm talking about because:
1. DARPA is military research and therefore structured differently to how the NSF does things. The very structure of it as a Grand Challenge is a clue here: the output of the programme was cars (not) going round a track, not papers and citations.
2. I'm not arguing for prosecution of researchers who end up with null results!
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#464Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you don’t believe that the effects of climate change are serious?
I don't know. I believe the most likely outcome is effects that are serious, but significantly less serious than the mainstream consensus claims. I believe the error bars are much wider than anyone admits. I believe the narrow range of countermeasures that it's politically acceptable to move towards implementing are not particularly reasonable and will not be effective.
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#465Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know. I believe the most likely outcome is effects that are serious, but significantly less serious than the mainstream consensus claims. I believe the error bars are much wider than anyone admits. I believe the narrow range of countermeasures that it's politically acceptable to move towards implementing are not particularly reasonable and will not be effective.
On what basis do you believe that?
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#466Earlier quoted context omitted.
But why? Is it because you can't tell good studies from bad? If so, doesn't that mean that you shouldn't be using these studies in the first place?
Isn’t that the whole point? It does in fact seem that scientists in general are not good at telling good studies from had. Why would this be surprising?
The first example given in the article is of a researcher who published faked results. Other researches shouldn't be basing their research on these faked results. They can wait till the results are independently replicated, or replicate them themselves.
The main reason of using a scientific method is to eliminate bad theories and part of this is determining the truthfulness of other scientists.
In summary, using bad studies isn't fundamental unless you're fundementally doing bad science that can't discern good evidence from bad. The "surprise" you are attributing to my comments is essentially amazement at the idea that people trained to seek knowledge would be so careless that they take the results of studies as a base truth with which to continue their work.
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#467Earlier quoted context omitted.
Agreed. Instead of looking for institutional solutions, we can demonstrate the need for critical thinking and skepticism as individuals. This is a can-do solution we can start with now. The above poster's plea of, "there ought to be a law" removes the agency of the individual. There are also serious problems with appointing fact checkers as impartial arbiters of objective truths. It is an untenable scheme. A naked ap…
> we can demonstrate the need for critical thinking Good luck with that. Humans are not always rational and don't always act on their best interests, much less on the whole species' best interests. If we leave saving our species to individuals, I wish the cockroaches better luck. I, personally, would bet on ants and bees, as they seem to be much better organized than us.
If individuals are not rational as you say, then how would politicians, technocrats or other central planners be rational?
If an individual doesn't have the right to coerce you, how does a collective of individuals have the right to coerce you?
Individualism is the decentralization of information and decision making. It has a different failure mode. If we accept that men are fallible, then individualism allows for a competition of solutions and ideas. Humans will never be perfect. Decentralization allows us to progress and iterate faster than central planning, which has all of the same problems with what you call "irrationality".
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#468Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn’t that the whole point? It does in fact seem that scientists in general are not good at telling good studies from had. Why would this be surprising?
If scientists can't tell good studies from bad and yet use the results of these studies, then in my mind those scientists are simply doing bad science and are adding to the problem, since their studies will also be bad. The first example given in the article is of a researcher who published faked results. Other researches shouldn't be basing their research on these faked results. They can wait till the results are in…
Yes, I completely agree with this.
> They can wait till the results are independently replicated,
Yes, this would be ideal. A mechanism to trace replication history would help. Most studies though never get replicated, and don’t replicate.
> or replicate them themselves.
In very rare cases, perhaps, but in general this would be impractical.
> In summary, using bad studies isn't fundamental
How can you be so sure? The reason science is done this way is due to human behavior and incentive systems which have never so far escaped this problem. You are comparing against an ideal which has never existed in reality.
> unless you're fundementally doing bad science
This is how science is done. It is certainly fundamental to the current practice of science.
> that can't discern good evidence from bad.
This is a false dichotomy. Evidence is not binary. Science is much less able to distinguish strong evidence from weak evidence than in your imagined ideal, but then again, your imagined ideal has never existed,
> The "surprise" you are attributing to my comments is essentially amazement at the idea that people trained to seek knowledge would be so careless that they take the results of studies as a base truth with which to continue their work.
Are you feigning the surprise as a rhetorical device or do you really not know how science works?
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#469Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would assume the people saying "follow the science" generally don't mean "believe recent research publications". I still occasionally see things like "hanging a potato to your wall will cure your child's flu" being debated by friends of friends on Facebook. You'd need to take a time machine several hundred years back for it to be within the realm of realm of genuine scientific debate.
You seem to be indicating the preferred time window for which research to trust. Not too new, not too old. Not the worst algorithm you could choose, and I agree. This is why I stay away from drugs, procedures, and any kind of guidance from the medical profession that is less than 20 years old.
I have seen physicians at top hospitals. Nobody cares about the reaction to the drug but only about treating the current symptoms. I have heard maybe it was the drug, maybe it wasn't. My reaction was instant during a hospital visit. It makes me feel terribly uneasy, getting the word out there doesn't help me in anyway, it helps to protect other people, which frankly the government should be doing.
I honestly don't know how nobody thought maybe we should look at the data we have, look at medications patient took and then if they suffered from an illness within certain period of time.
There is a group who met with senators on flouroquinolone antibiotics.
FDA has updated the "black" label on the drugs multiple times. First with tendonitis issues, then depression/anxiety, now with possible permanent nervous system damage. Yet doctors remain completely uninformed and the drug is given out for 'suspected' UTI. EMA in Europe now recommends these drugs should only be used in life threatening infections.
Recently, a physician submitted a request to the FDA to require written patient consent to take the medication, due to possible side effects. FDA said due to covid they are unable to review it at this time.
I would suggest adding a feature to your algorithm, before taking a drug also look for groups of suffers. If there are many groups....you might want to take something older and safer.
Re: Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until proven otherwise?
#470Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. There is no honesty anywhere, that is my point. > the need to displace fossil fuels really is very important. Why? I don't necessarily disagree. But reality isn't a problem managed through a single variable. The things you list are not singularly caused by fossil fuels. In fact, a very solid argument could be put forth about just how much uglier things might be without fossil fuels. Here's the basic math someone…
I think all of your points miss one glaring fact: Quality of life doesn't matter in the face of an existential threat. It's not: How do we maintain our quality of life? It's: What quality of life can we achieve? The basis of your argument needs to be a reality in which life continues, which limits all other considerations.
Existential threat?
Really?
Where is the proof of that?
Not trying to be obtuse at all. I am also not suggesting that things are changing towards a future with potent climate events. I am not challenging any of that.
You see, the dark future everyone is selling is one where we all die. Everything dies. Mass extinction of all kinds of living things. Another two degrees and we are done for.
Hmmm.
In the face of this we are supposed to have the technological prowess TO ACTUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF PLANETARY SCALE PROBLEMS and magically bend the curve to where WE want it to be, not where THE PLANET wants it to be. Upper case for greater emphasis than this which does nothing for me, not yelling at you.
Do you have any idea of the scale of this thing? Planetary. Yes. What does it mean?
In other words, we purport to have the power to change the entire ecological balance of the planet (hence "planetary scale", and, at the same time, we can't deal with the purported effects of global warming?
I applied "purported" because, once again, climate change is being treated as a single variable problem where NOTHING ELSE changes. In other words, "CO2 bad -> CO2 ppm rising -> Existential threat".
What?
The planet has been dealing with this kind of stuff long before humanity was a thing. It adjusts to atmospheric CO2 through weather. Specifically, storm, hurricanes, cyclones, rain, etc. Water. And growing vegetation. Yes, at a planetary scale. We have data on this, reliable data, going back at least 800K years.
Is CO2 bad?
Well, yeah, taken as a single variable, sure. Yet, that isn't the entire story, is it?
Have you heard of indoor farming? This is where food is growing in controlled indoor environments rather than outdoors.
Do you know what they do in indoor farms to promote plant growth?
They inject CO2.
Yup. They actually have CO2 tanks delivered to the farm and CO2 is metered by a computerized system in order to raise the level and promote plant growth as well as other characteristics.
When you start leaving the "CO2 bad -> CO2 ppm rising -> Existential threat" myopic view of the universe being pushed and start to consider that reality is a complex multivariate problem, ideas and the potential actual reality start to surface.
Have you ever walked around your home, family and neighbor's homes and your neighborhood with a CO2 meter?
I have.
Levels in my home and my neighbors are in the range of 500 to 600 ppm. No, we don't live right next to a highway. Outside, about the same range. Some of the office environments I frequent, about the same.
In the car? It can reach 1100 ppm. No, that isn't with me breathing directly into the meter. If the ventilation system is set to forcefully ingest outside air it comes down to about 700 in neighborhood streets and spikes back up to 800 to 1000 on the highway (which makes sense).
My point is that this "CO2 bad -> CO2 ppm rising -> Existential threat" scenario is one that, very likely, billions of people have been living in for decades, maybe more. Care to guess what indoor environments looked like 100 to 200 years ago? I have no clue, but I cannot imagine them being better than what we have today.
And cars? How much time do billions of people spend in their cars at 700 to 1100 ppm CO2 every day? Hours.
Has the sky fallen?
No.
WHY ARE WE NOT QUESTIONING WHAT WE ARE BEING TOLD THEN?
C'mon folks. This isn't about denying our influence in increasing atmospheric CO2. However, this is, very much so, about gaining a sense of proportion and putting what we are being told to scrutiny.
Yes, we absolutely managed to increase atmospheric CO2 through the burning of highly dense hydrocarbon fuels. No question about that. Is the inescapable conclusion "CO2 bad -> CO2 ppm rising -> Existential threat"? I don't know. Somehow I don't think so.
For example, increased levels of atmospheric CO2 might promote more efficient growing of food in indoor farms. Controlled environment farming is more efficient that outdoor farming, uses less water, delivers higher quality food and reduces damage to the land. More importantly, controlled environment farming can bring food production to places that could not consider it before, like the desert.
How about all the storms, rain, etc. that are a part of the planet reacting to CO2 levels? Well, this will among othr things, promote vegetation growth everywhere.
So is, "CO2 bad -> CO2 ppm rising -> Existential threat" real? I, for one, after devoting a non trivial amount of time to truly looking at this as a complex multivariate problem rather than that silly statement being pushed around, do not believe so. I think this is a silly and damaging reduction to an absurd conclusion.
Will we have to adapt to potential changes? This is likely. However, we are already living in a 700 to 1100 ppm environment (homes, offices, inside cars) and we haven't all turned into a pile of goo on the ground.
Somehow I don't think the threat is existential as much as it is evolutionary. What I mean by this is that we likely have to evolve how we live, where we live, how we grow food and, yes, of course, how clean we are about our affairs. I am all for reducing CO2 emissions and being clean, just not because of a potentially flawed conclusion but rather due to the fact that, yes, humanity should pollute as little as humanly possible. This is a good goal. Yet we should not be hysterical about it. The sky isn't falling.
Think.