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AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

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Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#51
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the US researchers who do CASP are funded by NIH or NSF. Some are funded by private foundations, or are independently wealthy. Typically, as a "principal investigator" (postdoc, professor, scientist at a national lab) you write a proposal saying "here's my preivous work, here's the next obvious step, plz give monies so I can feed the dean's fund and pay for my grad students to manage my modest closet cluster"…

Yikes that sounds bleak.

Yet, there were still 136 human teams who competed in CASP14 (https://predictioncenter.org/casp14/docs.cgi?view=groupsbyna...), including DeepMind. Even if a significant fraction of these projects were done piggy-backing another grant, this work does receive research funding.

Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#53

How does work like this get funded? It's awesome, but it seems so far removed from... let's say "profit". And there are several teams competing in these things. Are there places that really fund advanced work like this, or is it mostly graduate student underpaid labor?

It's just corporations burn money to show off.

https://venturebeat.com/2020/12/27/deepminds-big-losses-and-...

Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#54
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it was a nice improvement. that's fine. But it's ultimately just statistical modelling based on deep evolutionary information. It only works on homology modelling, it doesn't actually solve the larger protein structure prediction problem. Therefore it's not groundbreaking but a significant improvement.

I respectfully disagree. AlphaFold 2 demonstrated almost perfect performance for a multitude of proteins for which no meaningful templates were available -- hence, it was not doing homology modelling as it is generally understood, but ab initio protein structure prediction. What I would support is that AlphaFold 2 does not solve the protein folding problem: how, as opposed to what to, a protein folds.

> it was not doing homology modelling as it is generally understood, but ab initio protein structure prediction.

Maybe according to the current definition of the term, which has drifted over the years. Homology modeling and "ab initio" structure prediction have been drifting toward each other for a long time. These days, the categories are separated by (an essentially arbitrary) sequence identity threshold. If you have a protein sequence with high homology to some other protein with a structure, then you're homology modeling. If you have no matches at all, you're doing "ab initio". In the middle, you have a gray area where you can mix the approaches and call it whatever you like.

This is not a pedantic point. If your method requires homology -- however distant and fragmented -- in order to work, then you're always limited to the knowledge in the database. Maybe we've sampled enough of protein space to get the major folds, but certainly, the databases don't have enough information to get the small details right.

I have never been a huge believer in the idea that we can go directly from protein sequence to protein structure simply using a mathematical model of physics, but that is the original meaning of "ab initio structure prediction", and if you could do it, it would be far more valuable than alphafold. At risk of making a trivially nerd-snipable metaphor, it's kind of like the difference between google translate and a theoretical model of human intelligence that understands concepts and can generate language. The latter is obviously immensely more capable than the former.

Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#55

To me the most interesting part of the article is the cometary on where basic research is going to happen in the future. The fear is that if it only happens in large companies, then the unbiased pool of experts society relies on will be smaller and less informed. Along with the issue of nobody being around for the slog of defining a field, setting up databases, competitions and standards. These are what allow well fu…

> unbiased pool of experts

Sounds like an oxymoron these days.

Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#56

To me the most interesting part of the article is the cometary on where basic research is going to happen in the future. The fear is that if it only happens in large companies, then the unbiased pool of experts society relies on will be smaller and less informed. Along with the issue of nobody being around for the slog of defining a field, setting up databases, competitions and standards. These are what allow well fu…

> unbiased pool of experts Sounds like an oxymoron these days.

Always has been

Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#57
post #31

So, unsurprisngly, it appears that applying a transformer to multiple sequence alignments extracts somewhat more spatial information about proteins than we had been able to previously squeeze out. It's pretty clear at this point that the work led to a large improvement in psp scores, but there's literally nothing else groundbreaking about it; I don't mean that in a bad way, except to criticize all the breathless pres…

It seems amazing to me what the transformer can learn to SOTA levels, not just language but also images, video, code, math and proteins. Replacing so much handmade neural architecture with just one thing that does it all, that was an amazing step forward.

Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#58
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I respectfully disagree. AlphaFold 2 demonstrated almost perfect performance for a multitude of proteins for which no meaningful templates were available -- hence, it was not doing homology modelling as it is generally understood, but ab initio protein structure prediction. What I would support is that AlphaFold 2 does not solve the protein folding problem: how, as opposed to what to, a protein folds.

how could they do ab initio? They depend on multiple sequence alignments. If I'm mistaken about this then I'll happily take back what I said, but there's no way that AF2 could work wihtout MSAs, therefore, it is not ab initio. Ah, OK checked the paper again. They're working on the "template" category which means there is structure-sequence information... maybe CASP organizers consider this ab initio ? The paper never…

Just in case there is a confusion: there is a difference between available sequences (~300 million in standard protein sequence repositories) and structures (~170k structures in the PDB, perhaps about ~120k that are structurally non-redundant). A large amount of CASP14 targets have no available templates; in fact, many of them represented previously unseen topologies. However, all of them had some (in most cases, many) available sequences.

The commonly accepted definition of homology modelling implies using a known structure ("template") as a scaffold to model the protein's topology. Since there are many CASP14 targets without appropriate templates, AlphaFold 2 simply cannot "just do homology modelling".

I do take the point that the correct term is "free modelling" (it does not have, or does not use, any good structure as a template), and not "ab initio modelling" (it uses physics to fold the protein), though. A deep enough MSA is generally a requirement.

Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#59
post #24

Thank you Google...thank you!

Why did they open source it? Wouldn’t this model be very valuable to the pharma industry?

> Why did they open source it? Wouldn’t this model be very valuable to the pharma industry?

This is a question we should remember when we feel like condemning big corporations for monopolizing AI. HuggingFace lists 12,257 models in its zoo, many coming from FAANG. You can start one in 3 lines of Python, or fine-tune it with a little more effort.

Re: AlphaFold 2 is here: what’s behind the structure prediction miracle

#60
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I respectfully disagree. AlphaFold 2 demonstrated almost perfect performance for a multitude of proteins for which no meaningful templates were available -- hence, it was not doing homology modelling as it is generally understood, but ab initio protein structure prediction. What I would support is that AlphaFold 2 does not solve the protein folding problem: how, as opposed to what to, a protein folds.

> it was not doing homology modelling as it is generally understood, but ab initio protein structure prediction. Maybe according to the current definition of the term, which has drifted over the years. Homology modeling and "ab initio" structure prediction have been drifting toward each other for a long time. These days, the categories are separated by (an essentially arbitrary) sequence identity threshold. If you ha…

If CASP is calling methods that use any sequence similarity (the grey area) 'ab initio', that's disingenuous and intellectually dishonest.

ab initio means from nothing, and at most, you're allowed to have physically inspired force fields, not sequence similarity to known structures. I put a lot of effort into improving the state of the art in that area, but ultimately concluded it made more sense to concentrate experimental structural determination in the area that was most useful- in proteins that had unknown folds or no known homology (see https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&h... for some previous work I did in this area).

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