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Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

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Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#21

Do you have any plans to take S-1 filings and make “cliff note” versions, i.e. distill down to core financials and important data?

Yes, this is at the core of what we do - taking a document with 2000 sentences like an annual report and distilling it down to the 20-30 sentences that actually matter. We do have plans to process S-1 filings, and we are currently working on building abstractive summarization capabilities.

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#22
post #13

Very intriguing. Can you give a sense of your model(s) metrics? Sensitivity and specificity in validation/test? If you're open to it, explainability assessments? What is your market size? Can your models transfer to other compliance spaces?

Our product has two very distinct outputs 1) red flags and 2) a risk score. Our primary value-add is the red flags which are a qualitative input into an analysts process. We find the information you need to see without having to spend 3 hours reading nonsense. The two components get tested very differently. The red flags explain (sort of) the risk scores but not in a truly explainable fashion. The risk scores are optimized for precision and approximately 1 in 3 companies with a "fraud" score will end up with an SEC investigation or equivalent.

Yes! the NLP research we've done can be adapted to other tasks.

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweet! The world needs a Bloomberg alternative so props. We don't have an API atm. We're focused on supporting human analysts. The meat of the product is the red flags which are textual and not quantitative.

If you think you could use more data such as news headlines, reddit and twitter chatter, and forum discussions about the companies from the filings then let me know, Quantale can provide that. The additional data could augment the current fraud detection.

Interesting. Potentially? How do we get in touch?

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#24
Does your model flag NKLA? Nikola Motors, ostensibly a fuel cell vehicle company, famously reported $36,000 in "solar revenue" (they got a contract to put solar panels on someone's house) while simultaneously having a market cap of over $4 billion.

If so, can you comment on what your model considers red flags in Nikola's SEC filings?

https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/

https://sec.report/Document/0001731289-20-000012/

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think you could use more data such as news headlines, reddit and twitter chatter, and forum discussions about the companies from the filings then let me know, Quantale can provide that. The additional data could augment the current fraud detection.

Interesting. Potentially? How do we get in touch?

email me at vikash@quantale.io

thank you

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#26

Congrats on the launch guys! Fellow Canadian from Montreal here :) I'm curious, what tools / methodology did you follow to generate the high-quality labels, and how many different labels did you end generating? I'm also very curious whether you view the discovery and generation of new labels (and accompanying high-quality training datasets) as a continuing and core part of your development going forward?

Ooh I love MTL. That's the first place I lived in Canada. Great q. We used SEC enforcement actions related to fraud as our gold label (fairly common practice in academia). Really key thing here is that you need to be careful about what years you're using for training because if you include years that are too late in the fraud cycle, you end up with significant target leakage e.g. the filings we'll say, "we're being investigated for fraud". We ended up manually reviewing all of our data/labels. It took over a month. We also use settled class action lawsuits as silver labels. Plus a few other more frequent labels as bronze labels

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#27

How would you address would-be filers from using your own product from iterating on their wording until the red flags are removed?

We don't sell to filers. Ever. Got to protect against conflicts of interest. That's one of the reasons we don't have a true free version of the product. That said, we're using language models so replacing words with synonyms won't evade the model as long as its expressing the same thing.

Do you have any deeper protections than simply not selling to filers? It doesn’t seem so hard for a motivated filer to circumvent by using friendly hedgefunds to lend their licenses.

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#28

Does your model flag NKLA? Nikola Motors, ostensibly a fuel cell vehicle company, famously reported $36,000 in "solar revenue" (they got a contract to put solar panels on someone's house) while simultaneously having a market cap of over $4 billion. If so, can you comment on what your model considers red flags in Nikola's SEC filings? https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ https://sec.report/Document/0001731289-20-000…

Yes, it did. BUT here's the thing -> Nikola was first a SPAC and by the time it filed its first filing as Nikola, the Hidenburg report was already out so its not a true example of our algorithms preceding short reports. Our algos did beat Hidenburg to the punch on a number of other companies though.

A bit outdated but check this out - https://bedrock.substack.com/p/bedrock-ai-vs-activist-shorts

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#29

Does your model flag NKLA? Nikola Motors, ostensibly a fuel cell vehicle company, famously reported $36,000 in "solar revenue" (they got a contract to put solar panels on someone's house) while simultaneously having a market cap of over $4 billion. If so, can you comment on what your model considers red flags in Nikola's SEC filings? https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ https://sec.report/Document/0001731289-20-000…

Yes, it did. BUT here's the thing -> Nikola was first a SPAC and by the time it filed its first filing as Nikola, the Hidenburg report was already out so its not a true example of our algorithms preceding short reports. Our algos did beat Hidenburg to the punch on a number of other companies though. A bit outdated but check this out - https://bedrock.substack.com/p/bedrock-ai-vs-activist-shorts

Nikola red flags for you! (all algorithmic)

1. "For example, in September 2020, our founder and former executive chairman, Trevor R. Milton, stepped down from his positions with us."

2. "During the fourth quarter of 2020, the Company ceased operations related to the Powersports business unit in order to focus on the Company's primary mission of commercial production of semi-trucks and construction of hydrogen fueling stations."

3. "As of December 31, 2020, we have $46.3 million of prepaid in-kind advisory services remaining which is expected to be consumed in 2021 and will be recorded as research and development expense until we reach commercial production."

Re: Launch HN: Bedrock AI (YC S21) – Using ML to identify red flags in SEC filings

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it did. BUT here's the thing -> Nikola was first a SPAC and by the time it filed its first filing as Nikola, the Hidenburg report was already out so its not a true example of our algorithms preceding short reports. Our algos did beat Hidenburg to the punch on a number of other companies though. A bit outdated but check this out - https://bedrock.substack.com/p/bedrock-ai-vs-activist-shorts

Nikola red flags for you! (all algorithmic) 1. "For example, in September 2020, our founder and former executive chairman, Trevor R. Milton, stepped down from his positions with us." 2. "During the fourth quarter of 2020, the Company ceased operations related to the Powersports business unit in order to focus on the Company's primary mission of commercial production of semi-trucks and construction of hydrogen fueling…

in-kind services is always a red flag because it's easy to fudge the accounting
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