'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World • Hacker News Board

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#31

Post by mschuster91 » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:59 AM UTC

mandmandam wrote: post #22

mschuster91 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives. In a society as cut-throat capitalist as the US, yes. In "welfare states" such as Europe, where everyone has their basic needs in life (housing, healthcare and food) at least somewhat met, this desire i…

You are right, though I don't know if you'll cut through the cognitive dissonance. Still though, even in Ireland, where there is a strong social push-back against the greedy ego mentality, there are still people willing to sell out their environment, country, and grandmothers to get a leg up. These people have done very well for themselves in the last couple decades, and especially well the past few years. To further…

I agree that the rich and powerful in Europe have gone way too rich and powerful for anyone's taste, but still - we aren't even close to the outright dystopian situation in the US.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#32

Post by Flip-per » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:00 AM UTC

vldmrs wrote: post #5

Could anyone point me to studies/research on how different parts of the world will be affected by climate change ? I would like to know how the place I am currently living at will be different now vs 10-30 years from today.

This is a visualization tool of an IPCC study where you can compare various climate scenarios. All the data and publications are available there too: https://hotspots-explorer.org/

By the way, it's quite hard to nail down what exactly a certain region will look like in 30 years. That depends a whole lot on the assumptions that you take. The models used for such work (IPCC etc) are rather suitable to compare actions, e.g. "If we don't take measure X and Y now, then the average temperature in this region will be 0.7° higher 30 years from now, compared to taking that measure."

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#33

Post by refurb » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:02 AM UTC

nradov wrote: post #25

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #12

One of the issues with anything that makes money, is that it encourages a “race to make a pile.” People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives. That attitude runs directly counter to the long-term planning, and sacrifice for the greater good, that is…

Which Asian nations are you thinking of? Because China is full of people wanting to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can.

As someone whose lived in a few Asian countries, I've seen no lack of this attitude to make money fast.

The collectivist mindset is more around top down direction. They'll happily throw trash on the street, but if someone threatens to fine them for doing it, they'll stop and not complain.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#34

Post by ChrisMarshallNY » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:02 AM UTC

nradov wrote: post #25

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #12

One of the issues with anything that makes money, is that it encourages a “race to make a pile.” People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives. That attitude runs directly counter to the long-term planning, and sacrifice for the greater good, that is…

Which Asian nations are you thinking of? Because China is full of people wanting to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can.

I'm thinking of Japan and Korea. I don't know enough about other Asian nations to proffer much of a valid opinion, although some (like China) have very powerful governments that can force societal change (if they want). This can be either good, or bad.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#35

Post by refurb » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:03 AM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #16

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #12

One of the issues with anything that makes money, is that it encourages a “race to make a pile.” People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives. That attitude runs directly counter to the long-term planning, and sacrifice for the greater good, that is…

> People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives. In a society as cut-throat capitalist as the US, yes. In "welfare states" such as Europe, where everyone has their basic needs in life (housing, healthcare and food) at least somewhat met, this desire i…

Your theory might make sense if it were the people who didn't have their basic needs met who were racing to get rich, but it tends to be the opposite - people who already have their basic needs met that are looking to make even more money.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#36

Post by premium-lizard » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:04 AM UTC

Juliate wrote: post #28

premium-lizard wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Would our could? I doubt the movie expressed absolute certainty, but it was indisputably meant to be alarming. > the sea also could rise It wouldn't be surprising, since they've been rising for 20,000 years. The strange thing about sea rise is that the tens of meters of rise from before the industrial revolution were good and natural, whereas the centimeters since are evil, and definitely due to CO2 emissions.

> I doubt the movie expressed absolute certainty, but it was indisputably meant to be alarming. Well, seasoned reasonable discourse from the scientific community started in the 70s (as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies). So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes.

> as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies

Oil companies don't have any special ability to predict the future state of a complex system.

> So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes.

Actually, the UN said in 1989 that whole nations might be wiped off the map if we didn't reverse global warming by 2000, so I might expect a 2000-dated discourse to have some humility, considering that the doom prophecy totally failed to materialize.

But anyway, how did Gore's predictions fare?

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#37

Post by Juliate » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:16 AM UTC

premium-lizard wrote: post #36

Juliate wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I doubt the movie expressed absolute certainty, but it was indisputably meant to be alarming. Well, seasoned reasonable discourse from the scientific community started in the 70s (as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies). So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes.

> as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies Oil companies don't have any special ability to predict the future state of a complex system. > So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes. Actually, the UN said in 1989 that whole nations might be wiped off the map if we didn't reverse global warming by 2000, so I might expect a 2000-dated discourse to have some humility, consider…

> Oil companies don't have any special ability to predict the future state of a complex system.

No, but they definitely have the scientific knowledge to understand the scale at which they pump CO2 into the atmosphere and the first-order consequences this has.

> But anyway, how did Gore's predictions fare?

It's like when you fly a plane, never trust the instruments: "yeah, sure, the altimeter is going down, but you know, we're still in the air. Besides, the altimeter has a margin of error, so... we're good."

We have a song for that in France: "Tout va très bien, Madame la Marquise, tout va très bien, tout va très bien...".

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#38

Post by miltondts » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:22 AM UTC

cagenut wrote: post #13

js8 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IPCC report is a good start: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ The AR6 version is supposed to come out next year.

AR5 is great, SR15 is more recent: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/ I particularly find skipping to the graphics page and looking for maps useful for answering peoples geography related questions. One thing to keep in mind is that report was overall meant to illustrate the difference between a 1.5 and a 2C outcome, but at this point 1.5C is toast and 2C would be an optimistic outcome so you can just skip to the 2C…

Given CO2 emitted today doesn't have an immediate impact, 2C appears impossible at this point: https://www.ecowatch.com/greenhouse-gases-paris-agreement-26...

This is just for the CO2 already in the atmosphere. Add to that at least 10 more years of emissions that continue to grow at an exponential rate. Then another 20 years of decreasing CO2 emissions, and it might be better to look at: https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-l....

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#39

Post by piva00 » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:24 AM UTC

premium-lizard wrote: post #20

canoebuilder wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relentless doom saying gives the impression that there are some studies or research or science out there that can accurately make predictions of the sort you are interested in, but as far as I know that’s not the case. I’m not aware of any system with a track record of predicting climates that far out. A volcano could erupt tomorrow and create much cooler climates around the world. Al Gore’s movie from the early…

> I’m not aware of any system with a track record of predicting climates that far out. This is right. Nor is there going to be any such system. The climate is a complex system, meaning it's fundamentally not amenable to simulation. All the models are toys compared to the reality. None of them even attempt to actually simulate what's going on. Not only is it impossible because we don't even know what the phenomena are…

> The models are (unavoidably, necessarily) just toys. They don't predict the future. Anyone who tells you that they are predicting the future with them is malicious or extremely naive. The models just masquerade as science to support political goals.

What political goals? Source would be appreciated as well.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#40

Post by premium-lizard » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 11:27 AM UTC

Juliate wrote: post #37

premium-lizard wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies Oil companies don't have any special ability to predict the future state of a complex system. > So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes. Actually, the UN said in 1989 that whole nations might be wiped off the map if we didn't reverse global warming by 2000, so I might expect a 2000-dated discourse to have some humility, consider…

> Oil companies don't have any special ability to predict the future state of a complex system. No, but they definitely have the scientific knowledge to understand the scale at which they pump CO2 into the atmosphere and the first-order consequences this has. > But anyway, how did Gore's predictions fare? It's like when you fly a plane, never trust the instruments: "yeah, sure, the altimeter is going down, but you kn…

> No, but they definitely have the scientific knowledge to understand the scale at which they pump CO2 into the atmosphere and the first-order consequences this has.

Check your hypothesis. There have been times in the past when CO2 went from, say, 3000 to 4000. Did the global average temperature do what you think it should?

> It's like when you fly a plane

I'm not seeing a number of correct predictions out of total predictions. What do we usually think when somebody has a hypothesis, and based on that hypothesis they make some testable predictions, and the predictions don't come true?