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Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

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Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#31

Post by yarg »

InsomniacL wrote: post #23

I have a theory that intelligence isn't particularly rare however the rate of development may be. It has long been alluded to in Sci-Fi that humanity's rate of development is fast (Humans vs Vulcans, Halo universe, etc). I imagine that one of the great barriers is that a civilisation with a lower rate of development may stuck in an industrial type era unable to progress before doing irreparable damage to their enviro…

I think that the biggest issue's gonna be a time gap.

Life shows up and spends a long time doing not much, then exponential growth kicks in, life gets smart and suicides out in 100000 years or so.

The rate of intelligent and communicating planets is going to be low enough; the chance of two such planets within a distance that allowed for bidirectional communication existing simultaneously is dwindling - and even then they'll be at different points in their growth curves.

If ever we meet aliens they'll be cavemen or gods.

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#32

Post by EamonnMR »

NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #17

In the near future it is more likely we will wipe out ourselves either due to Nuclear War, Global Warming, rogue AI or similar, than some hostile alien civilization will get us. It seems that we are those hostile aliens for ourselves.

The universe could still be a dark forest of AIs ready to smash each other as soon as they spot each other.

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#33

Post by detritus »

andyjohnson0 wrote: post #21
burntsushi wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This blurb has some citation links that suggest it predated Liu Cixin's book: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Communication_is... My understanding was that Cixin's book gave it the name "Dark Forest," along with the eerie analogy.

Greg Bear's novels Forge of God (1987) and Anvil of Stars (1993) explore the same idea. They feel a little dated now but the first one in particular is still well worth a read imo.

Huh, I can't remember that [apparently fundamental] aspect of those two books. I'm going to see if I still have a copy of Forge of God on the bookshelf when I get home later, thanks.

Last time I re-read one of his books (Eon, probably), I was quite bemused by the comically-simplistic 80s-esque Cold War perspective though!

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#34

Post by qayxc »

InsomniacL wrote: post #23

I have a theory that intelligence isn't particularly rare however the rate of development may be. It has long been alluded to in Sci-Fi that humanity's rate of development is fast (Humans vs Vulcans, Halo universe, etc). I imagine that one of the great barriers is that a civilisation with a lower rate of development may stuck in an industrial type era unable to progress before doing irreparable damage to their enviro…

It's one of the Great Filters [0] - I don't know if it has a catchy name.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#35

Post by [deleted] »

rnhmjoj wrote: post #29

> In other words, the finite nature of resources will ultimately pit one civilization against another as they all struggle to sustain their growth. I'm not sure this constraint is so strict to force a strong competition for survival, given how vast the universe is. It seems to me this projecting our earth-bound mentality of limited resources to a whole different scale, where it may not really apply.

[deleted]

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#36

Post by Causality1 »

syops wrote: post #13
Causality1 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see there being that big a technological leap between annihilating another civilization and starting a colony in another star system. If you're the type of civilization that would be interested in killing a competitor off you're probably the type that's going to colonize and fill the entire galaxy in a few million years. We evolved, so that hasn't happened, in a galaxy thirteen billion years old. I suspect we…

The energy requirement to send a life destroying device to a far away planet might be much less than the energy requirement to send colonizers. That may be the big leap so to speak.

If you can send a weapon you can probably send some kind of Von Neumann probe with genetic and cultural data to create a seed colony

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#37

Post by TheCoelacanth »

wydfre wrote: post #20
Mordisquitos wrote: post #4

Am I missing something, or is this article very narrowly missing the most damning criticism of the Dark Forest hypothesis according to the article's own logic? The first paragraph of the “ Criticism ” section says: > Overall, the Dark Forest Hypothesis has an internal logic and consistency that makes it an appealing (if somewhat somber) potential resolution to Fermi’s age-old question. Unfortunately, it also suffers…

There is no way to underestimate the stupidity of people in groups, and our eusocial stupidity might be unique to our species. If someone knocked on your door, quite unexpectedly, in the middle of the night, can I err on the idea that you would be quite panic-struck? But if humanity got a signal from another civilization tomorrow, do you think it is safe to err on folks being quite happy?

> If someone knocked on your door, quite unexpectedly, in the middle of the night, can I err on the idea that you would be quite panic-struck?

Quite likely, but only because the socially acceptable reasons to knock on someone's door in the middle of the night are usually something pretty bad. I wouldn't fear that they're attacking me. I would fear whatever they are waking me up to tell me about.

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#38

Post by qayxc »

zhynn wrote: post #27

A group collaborating will have better chance of survival than an individual. The upside of working with your neighbors outweighs the benefit of destroying them.

That might be true for individuals of the same (social) species, but I don't think that's a given in the context of technological civilisations competing for resources.

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#39

Post by yreg »

Mordisquitos wrote: post #12
HotHotLava wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't the counterpoint be that those civilizations like us that do not obscure their location are quickly eradicated by others in the forest? So the forest also acts like a filter for those that are not careful enough.

I don't see that as a counterpoint, but more of a post hoc theory. How could the eradicators detect and destroy their victims before we detected any signal at all from the victims? And why haven't the eradicators come for us yet? Of course, this could always be explained by the distances involved and the limitations of light speed, but that would make the Dark Forest hypothesis redundant as an explanation as to why w…

>How could the eradicators detect and destroy their victims before we detected any signal at all from the victims?

Even if they destroy them within say a thousand years, then at any given time there would be only few civilizations at the right age to be broadcasting. And not very loud at that.

We listen only to a miniscule portion of the Galaxy. IMO, Fermi's question shouldn't be "Why can't we hear the few civs that are close to our level".

It should be "How come we don't detect Kardashev >2 civs collonizing most of the galaxy?" Why can't we detect a single Dyson Sphere?

(I don't consider dark forest explanation to be probable though.)

Re: Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?

#40

Post by yreg »

NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #17

In the near future it is more likely we will wipe out ourselves either due to Nuclear War, Global Warming, rogue AI or similar, than some hostile alien civilization will get us. It seems that we are those hostile aliens for ourselves.

Do you think that most/all civilisations end this way before becoming spacefarers?
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