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My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

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Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#311

Post by anticodon »

ganafagol wrote: post #270
anticodon wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was exactly what is stated in the article: shortage of energy. US consumes several times more energy per capita than even Europe. At the same time industrial output of US is small and diminishing with every year. US needs more oil. Hence all the wars. Iraq - oil. Libya - oil. Syria - oil (US occupied all oil deposits in Syria where and extracts it without giving anything back to the people of Syria). Afghanistan -…

> The next target will be also rich in oil, although it would be definitely said that it's only because of lack of democracy in the said country. Haiti.

It was just a minor coup at the USA backdoor.

The next victim of US military incursion will be oil rich country. There's no reason for incursion if it is not going to be profitable for the US.

If there's "no democracy" in some country but also no valuable natural resources, it's not worth spending expensive missiles and bombs. E.g. dictatorship in Cambodia would be always safe as there're little gains in occupying Cambodia.

Same for Haiti. It doesn't mean that US won't intervene with cheaper methods like assassinations and/or propaganda.

US literally prints money, it's very easy for them to set up media outlets publishing propaganda non-stop 24/7 in almost every country on Earth.

FAANG monopolies are also a big part of this picture. They all censor all anti-american views and push propaganda. E.g., if you're from Russia, and you register on YouTube, you'll see Navalny channel in recommendations for months, even if you explicitly block his channel and channels of his associates. Facebook regularly blocks pro-Russian persons, groups and posts (including published in Russian in Russia). Many Netflix series (and Hollywood movies) continue to picture US as the exceptional country with exceptional people ("chosen by God") while all the rest are third-world worthless thrash (see Narcos, for example). Also, almost all the villains in Hollywood movies are Russian (Tenet is the recent example).

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#312

Post by keiferski »

native_samples wrote: post #309
keiferski wrote: post #303

Not giving an opinion on the model itself, I do find it interesting how many of these cultural narratives of collapse and Armageddon are almost directly from older religious traditions. Specifically, Christianity in the Western World. The parallels become increasingly obvious if you dig deeper into the theology; everything is present, from climate “sinners” to apocalyptic scenarios in which everything collapses into…

I think you're right but it's not exclusively a religious issue. Karl Marx was famously obsessed with an apocalyptic end-of-days style vision in which the sinners would be punished and the pure elevated above. At the same time he wasn't a big fan of (other) religions.

True, but Nietzsche would say that socialism and subsequently Marx are consequences of Christianity. So it’s still operating in the same worldview, if unconsciously.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#313

Post by rini17 »

keiferski wrote: post #303

Not giving an opinion on the model itself, I do find it interesting how many of these cultural narratives of collapse and Armageddon are almost directly from older religious traditions. Specifically, Christianity in the Western World. The parallels become increasingly obvious if you dig deeper into the theology; everything is present, from climate “sinners” to apocalyptic scenarios in which everything collapses into…

The collapse of civilization happened in various ways many times already, no wonder it's present globally in the unconscious. Doubt it's a specialty of West.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#314

Post by roenxi »

zug_zug wrote: post #232
tanbog4 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that silly to model as historically that has also happened. To use the "peak oil" example this work also influenced, the technology of fossil oil reserves was a response in part to "peak whale" (not a joke). The main source much commercial 'oil' for things like Street lamps in the 1800s was whale blubber. As whales got overfished fossilised oil reserves were developed and not only took over those markets but…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but "peak whale" and "peak oil" are naturally self-correcting in a free-market, because as the resources become scarce their prices goes up hence leading to technological incentives to find alternative sources. This would also apply to topsoil erosion. However this isn't the case with carbon emissions for example, unless we had some financial feedback loop (e.g. some carbon tax).

Well, in a free market supply and demand will match. But the free market is totally capable of throwing up "most humans die" as a path to equilibrium, if all the available energy disappears.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#315

Post by native_samples »

mrpopo wrote: post #208
omgwtfbyobbq wrote: post #196

According the the wiki article, world3 is too general to be realistic. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3 > But those of us who knew the DYNAMO language in which the simulation was written and those who took the model apart line-by-line quickly realized that we had to deal with an exercise in misinformation and obfustication rather than with a model delivering valuable insights. I was particularly astonished by t…

Yes, world3 is meant as a simulation exercise that is sometimes taken too seriously. But even its critics consider that the conclusions of the model are valid. Here is the continuation of your quote: > He does however consider continuous growth in world GDP a problem: Only the widespread scientific illiteracy and innumeracy—all you need to know in this case is how to execute the equation y=x*e^{rt} prevents most of t…

No, lots of critics of the model (like me) consider the conclusions of the model to be invalid. It's inherent in the nature of validity actually - a fraudulent model like World3 cannot be said to be "valid" even if a few of its vague prognostications end up in the right general area. Any definition of validity that allowed such a thing would also have to apply to fortune tellers, who often say things that seem directionally accurate but whose methods are of course not "valid".

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#316

Post by keiferski »

rini17 wrote: post #313
keiferski wrote: post #303

Not giving an opinion on the model itself, I do find it interesting how many of these cultural narratives of collapse and Armageddon are almost directly from older religious traditions. Specifically, Christianity in the Western World. The parallels become increasingly obvious if you dig deeper into the theology; everything is present, from climate “sinners” to apocalyptic scenarios in which everything collapses into…

The collapse of civilization happened in various ways many times already, no wonder it's present globally in the unconscious. Doubt it's a specialty of West.

Perhaps, but I think the moralistic approach to it is definitely a Western phenomenon.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#317

Post by roenxi »

knuthsat wrote: post #298
99_00 wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why isn't nuclear power the answer to climate change and energy shortage?

It is definitely a step in the right direction, but given the current demand the development is too slow. Just look at China, with ~50 nuclear plants (just 5% of energy production), while they have thousands of coal plants. It's practically impossible that they can shift to a reusable carbon-neutral energy production methods. Also, China can build a hundred coal plants in a year, but there's no way it can do that wit…

Just 5% = do what you did 20 times and the problem is solved. They only need 1,000 plants.

Compared to all the construction China has done in the past 50 years, it doesn't seem that difficult a target.

> Also, China can build a hundred coal plants in a year, but there's no way it can do that with nuclear.

That isn't a law of nature. They can build hundreds of plants of any type in a year.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#318

Post by fogihujy »

ghufran_syed wrote: post #301
swman wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think technology will result in a great outcome for humanity as long as our greed is checked somehow. Most of the problems today are caused by our greed. I’m no MIT scholar nor as educated as most of you here, but from a anecdotal ground level I have seen it really seems some people at various positions from a office manager all the way to the highest political offices are driven by greed. Their greed usually resul…

The problem is defining “greed”. It feels like when I want more stuff per unit time/effort, I’m just “trying to support my family and build a better life for my children”. But when other people do the same, it’s “greedy”. Is there any definition of “greedy” we could use for the purposes of this discussion that would apply yo all humans equally?

Yeah, especially when there's occasional extremists that refuse to acknowledge that putting one's own first isn't the natural state of things.

I guess the way forward is to build a sustainable future for everyone and their families. And to get everyone to agree it's the best way to go about things.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#319

Post by spiralx »

DaedPsyker wrote: post #293
adrianN wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's pretty expensive and time consuming to build and people really don't like to have a nuclear power plant near them.

While the time to build is certainly true, is the cost truly more expensive than that of effects of climate change? I suspect not.

South Korea seems to manage building a nuclear power plant in six years or so, they don't have to take decades to get online.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#320

Post by fogihujy »

eecc wrote: post #291
hughrr wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

History shows us that greedy people end up with their heads on sticks. Even when they have armies to protect them. It doesn’t take a lot to regress to that again.

Problem is the process that brings those heads on the sticks. It often involves death & destruction of plenty other people and infrastructure.

Not to mention the countless rebellions that ended with the rebelling peoples' heads on spears. Farmer rebellions usually fail.
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