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My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

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Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#261

Post by jhoechtl »

seibelj wrote: post #89
chestertn wrote: post #60

When I was an undergrad I discovered blogs about peak oil, the limits to the growth, and Turchin’s cliometrics. As an adolescent I really enjoyed Asimov’s Foundation and all of this knowledge resonated with me. I had a fried who read Von Mises’ Human Action and he labeled me as a neo-Malthusian . And, according to his “school of thought”, my understanding of the world and economics incorrect. We had many interesting…

The Austrian view of economics (and of human philosophy), when I finally sat down and read through the material, made so much sense to me and deeply affected me. It clarified several things I had been feeling about the world that I couldn’t fully comprehend, and made me feel much less stressed and more content. The Malthusian (doom scrolling) impulse is stronger than ever. I feel happier not subscribing to the “end o…

The term "Austrian School" reads innocuous yet it really is about the fundamentals of neo-capitalism driven by greed.

I do not feel easy about your comment. Sure the Austrian School describes a comprehensive model which might give you feelings of being able to describe the world, yet it might be a model towards self-destruction?

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#262

Post by pjc50 »

zug_zug wrote: post #232
tanbog4 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that silly to model as historically that has also happened. To use the "peak oil" example this work also influenced, the technology of fossil oil reserves was a response in part to "peak whale" (not a joke). The main source much commercial 'oil' for things like Street lamps in the 1800s was whale blubber. As whales got overfished fossilised oil reserves were developed and not only took over those markets but…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but "peak whale" and "peak oil" are naturally self-correcting in a free-market, because as the resources become scarce their prices goes up hence leading to technological incentives to find alternative sources. This would also apply to topsoil erosion. However this isn't the case with carbon emissions for example, unless we had some financial feedback loop (e.g. some carbon tax).

> naturally self-correcting in a free-market

Only once the resource has been consumed. And with topsoil I'm not sure you want to see what happens when food prices rise dramatically.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#263

Post by headmelted »

akmarinov wrote: post #256
swman wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think technology will result in a great outcome for humanity as long as our greed is checked somehow. Most of the problems today are caused by our greed. I’m no MIT scholar nor as educated as most of you here, but from a anecdotal ground level I have seen it really seems some people at various positions from a office manager all the way to the highest political offices are driven by greed. Their greed usually resul…

A big part is our greed to procreate, take out 3/4 of humanity and climate change is solved

Is it though?

Even if there were an event that wiped out 75% of people, it kicks the can down the road at most 30 years due to a baby boom.

Refusing to solve the real problem is what got us in to this mess.

It’s also utterly like us as a species to think that killing 3 out of 4 people is an easier fix than just living within our means.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#264

Post by vecinu »

logicchains wrote: post #204
bmitc wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you and made a similar comment when the article talking about the report was posted here. COVID-19 is a perfect example of the folly in believing "technology will always save us". In the U.S., the general sentiment was that technology in the form of vaccines and entrepreneurship will rise to the occasion, so let's just ride it out until then. Well after more than a year of shit show after shit show and 6…

>COVID-19 is a perfect example of the folly in believing "technology will always save us". From a purely collectivist point of view, unchecked Covid only kills around 1% of the population and the vast majority are retired people, so it's not something society needed saving from as it has pretty much zero effect on humanity's long-term economic/technological progress.

I think the serious issue is more around long COVID and the associated symptoms with something that could perhaps become a chronic issue down the line.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#265

Post by s5300 »

swader999 wrote: post #188
foxylad wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> resources are indeed infinite, because the human ingenuity is infinite Human ingenuity is impressive, but not infinite. I recommend Collapse by Jared Diamond. It's a long read, but every single society he examines thought they were doing great but ended up eating each other (literally) within a couple of generations once some vital resource dried up. Human ingenuity failed all of them. I'll give you peak oil: our i…

Sure there will be weather events, but none of us will live to see anything climate related that causes an entire country to whither.

Multiple countries have already began to buy foreign land because they know their entire country will wither because it will be underwater.

Perhaps you should... fuck, I don't even know. All of this information is completely free and accessible and nobody gives a single fuck because they think they're smarter.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/24/kiribati-and-c...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-maldives/w...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-maldives-environment/mald...

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#266

Post by You-Are-Right »

akmarinov wrote: post #256
swman wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think technology will result in a great outcome for humanity as long as our greed is checked somehow. Most of the problems today are caused by our greed. I’m no MIT scholar nor as educated as most of you here, but from a anecdotal ground level I have seen it really seems some people at various positions from a office manager all the way to the highest political offices are driven by greed. Their greed usually resul…

A big part is our greed to procreate, take out 3/4 of humanity and climate change is solved

You can start solving this by taking out yourself. Thanks!

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#267

Post by ganafagol »

nr2x wrote: post #152
xbpx wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily there are many models that show divergence from the norm many years ago and continue to show stable and accurate predictions. Like the IPCC reports, and well, most climate CO2 models. Now it's less about determining if divergence is occuring and more about the slope of the divergence. Will we have societal collapse at 2 degrees or 3 degrees warming seems speculative but the general consensus is that it'll be…

I’ve lost hope in politics, I’m buying a sturdy helmet and hoping for the best.

Then you are participating in a self fulfilling prophecy. The oil and gas lobby won't stop calling. Nor will the car industry lobby and all the other industry groups. So if you don't call (or vote, for that matter) the cause is lost and what you think about politics. But you contributed to it by inaction, so don't blame others.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#268

Post by biztos »

hughrr wrote: post #243
swman wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think technology will result in a great outcome for humanity as long as our greed is checked somehow. Most of the problems today are caused by our greed. I’m no MIT scholar nor as educated as most of you here, but from a anecdotal ground level I have seen it really seems some people at various positions from a office manager all the way to the highest political offices are driven by greed. Their greed usually resul…

History shows us that greedy people end up with their heads on sticks. Even when they have armies to protect them. It doesn’t take a lot to regress to that again.

There’s still plenty of money sloshing around the coffers of European royalty, even in modern republics. If you’re good at the greed thing I think the head-on-stick risk is pretty small.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#269

Post by downWidOutaFite »

anticodon wrote: post #260
downWidOutaFite wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was not intelligence failures that got us into Iraq. The politicians lied us into the war on purpose and hid, obstructed, and made up the intelligence as they saw fit. One of the biggest crimes in American history should be remembered correctly.

It was exactly what is stated in the article: shortage of energy. US consumes several times more energy per capita than even Europe. At the same time industrial output of US is small and diminishing with every year. US needs more oil. Hence all the wars. Iraq - oil. Libya - oil. Syria - oil (US occupied all oil deposits in Syria where and extracts it without giving anything back to the people of Syria). Afghanistan -…

In two decades of reading about it I've seen this oil theory many times but I haven't seen anything that convinces me that it was the real motivation. The closest strategic explanation was the neocons' PNAC letters which were basically just bravado about America throwing its weight around to maintain their global dominance. Reprehensible stuff.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#270

Post by ganafagol »

anticodon wrote: post #260
downWidOutaFite wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was not intelligence failures that got us into Iraq. The politicians lied us into the war on purpose and hid, obstructed, and made up the intelligence as they saw fit. One of the biggest crimes in American history should be remembered correctly.

It was exactly what is stated in the article: shortage of energy. US consumes several times more energy per capita than even Europe. At the same time industrial output of US is small and diminishing with every year. US needs more oil. Hence all the wars. Iraq - oil. Libya - oil. Syria - oil (US occupied all oil deposits in Syria where and extracts it without giving anything back to the people of Syria). Afghanistan -…

> The next target will be also rich in oil, although it would be definitely said that it's only because of lack of democracy in the said country.

Haiti.

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