Study finds 17% of software developers can't feel anything anymore.
Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
261–270 of 308 posts
Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are plenty of scientific studies with just 50 or 100 people, but you need to keep the small numbers in mind. The converse also needs to be held in mind as well. Very large studies are more likely to display statistically significant findings. Your p-value is really just a test of your sample size, so as the study grows your p-value tends to shrink. Get a large enough sample and you'll almost always find stati…
This is a bad explanation of p values. Of the start: > If you’re testing whether mean=0 and actually the truth is that mean=0.000000001, and if you have a large enough sample size, then YOU WILL GET A TINY P-VALUE. Think about this for a second. Does it make sense that the results of my statistical test would change if I measured in terragrams vs. micrograms? No, it doesn't, because it's not the numerical difference…
This is a good explanation, thank you.
>You will be able to detect very small effects, but if there is no difference, you are more likely to draw the correct conclusion with 1,000,000 samples than with 100 samples.
I believe that this is to the tweet author's point where they stated that in the real-world a null hypothesis never exactly holds true. So you can detect even the tiniest of variance with a large enough sample.
>given no actual difference
I think the error here is that there is a priori knowledge of no difference, where the author is stating that in real-life scenarios there will always be some differences even if being too minute to be of practical significance. We can fabricate "no difference" in simulations but in real experimental design there will almost always be variance, even if it's just an artifact of the measurement process rather than being causal from the independent variable(s). Whether or not the differences statistically significant depends on the experiment design, to include sample size.
So while I understand your valid point I think the author's claim was more about the practical application of statistics rather than the mathematical precision as it relates with simulated examples. But I could be misinterpreting.
Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#263Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m guilty of posting before reading the article. I’m glad you pointed this out. Sounds like an awful study. There’s true burnout and then there’s feelings of stress. They aren’t the same thing at all. I know because I’ve experienced both. Burnout cuts you down to your soul. I haven’t programmed professionally in 2 years and the thought of doing so makes me nauseous. That’s burnout.
Let's me 100% honest here - if we cannot define clearly the psychological and medical definition of a burn-out (with accurate diagnosis), it is just fine to discuss in non-scientific context. The moment you call this a study and no one here is willing to ask hard questions makes me extremely disappointed in HN and the intellectual curiosity that usually drives discussions here. Why do I feel like there is some politi…
It would take a lot of mental gymnastics to twist this into a political statement. If we "cannot define clearly the psychological and medical definition of a burn-out", why are we even studying it in the first place? That would be like experimenting without a control group.
Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
> When we get into "total population" statistics, we kinda leave the realm of statistics lol. Not even close to accurate.
When there's an election or census over some particular figure, there's no "+/-" or "standard deviation". If the election count is say, 48% for A and 50% for B and 2% other, that's that. You don't have error bars, you don't have student-t tests, you don't have random varaibles, you don't have "confidence intervals". You assume you have the ground truth. You have a precise number assumed to be without error. Its actua…
Elections are not statistical tests. Number of people dead are not statistical tests. You said "When we get into "total population" statistics, we kinda leave the realm of statistics lol." That is false. There are many questions that statistics is best suited to answer even if an entire population has been surveyed. Often the term population is poorly defined, and is much wider than the simple base case.
In the case of J&J blood clots, there's billions of additional people who could take the J&J vaccine. 15/21 million people who took he J&J vaccine got blood clots. But if you want to know what percentage of "people who take the J&J vaccine get blood clots" that's not the same thing. The population includes an infinite number of people.
Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a bad explanation of p values. Of the start: > If you’re testing whether mean=0 and actually the truth is that mean=0.000000001, and if you have a large enough sample size, then YOU WILL GET A TINY P-VALUE. Think about this for a second. Does it make sense that the results of my statistical test would change if I measured in terragrams vs. micrograms? No, it doesn't, because it's not the numerical difference…
This is a good explanation, thank you. > You will be able to detect very small effects, but if there is no difference, you are more likely to draw the correct conclusion with 1,000,000 samples than with 100 samples. I believe that this is to the tweet author's point where they stated that in the real-world a null hypothesis never exactly holds true. So you can detect even the tiniest of variance with a large enough s…
If you're performing a rigorous experiment, then you have a control group, and your null hypothesis is that the experimental group will be the same. In actuality you will find that many null hypotheses hold true and the experimental design has no effect on the outcome, at all. Of course in some fields, like psych, most everything has some effect. But it's absolutely not correct to blame p-values for helping you distinguish between no effect and astonishingly small effects. They're functioning correctly. That is a secondary problem to solve, usually by stating a minimum effect size.
Of far greater problem is False Discovery Rate related things. Where you test 20 different things at once, and by chance identify one of them as significant even though the true effect size is 0. This is another area where increasing your sample size can help avoid problems, but even still you need to acknowledge your tools are imperfect.
Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#266Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#267This is such a great example of bullshit studies. Yeah I'm gonna go on a limb and say this is a marketing campaign. It's an insult to science to call this a "study". From the pdf: > The fieldwork of this study was carried out at remarkable speed, from the 23rd to 24th of June 2021 Data was collected in 1 day. Is this a joke? No it's not! > The population sampled included Software Engineers aged 18+ living in the Unit…
"Data was collected in 1 day. Is this a joke? No it's not!" What makes you think data collected over 1 day worse than the same data collected in multiple days? "I really don't understand how they can do a half-assed data survey on 258 people only, and then have the gall to claim "83% of DEVELOPERS"" It's called extrapolation. No study ever interviews everyone. They all have to extrapolate from a subset of the entire…
Nit, the 258 number makes this an inference on the broader population, not an extrapolation, if it's a random sample.
It is, however, an extrapolation to make claims about the entire dev world when looking just at UK devs.
Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#268Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a good explanation, thank you. > You will be able to detect very small effects, but if there is no difference, you are more likely to draw the correct conclusion with 1,000,000 samples than with 100 samples. I believe that this is to the tweet author's point where they stated that in the real-world a null hypothesis never exactly holds true. So you can detect even the tiniest of variance with a large enough s…
If you're performing a rigorous experiment, then you have a control group, and your null hypothesis is that the experimental group will be the same. In actuality you will find that many null hypotheses hold true and the experimental design has no effect on the outcome, at all. Of course in some fields, like psych, most everything has some effect. But it's absolutely not correct to blame p-values for helping you disti…
>In actuality you will find that many null hypotheses hold true
I'm assuming you mean within the confines of the experiment, correct? I agree. The tweet author was eluding to the fact that "IRL" the null hypothesis is almost never true at the population level. Meaning if you grab a large enough sample you will detect very, very small differences. (This was her Lucky Charms ~ blood type example in the tweet). I also agree with that. I don't think the two claims are mutually exclusive and the fact they can coexist is (I believe) precisely her point about sample size.
Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
You should be able to measure burnout by watching employee churn. Something software development is notorious for. I don’t think people jump companies every year and a half in most industries.
they would if they could get a 20% raise without much fuss. was reading a reddit post on an airline host who was 'on the road' to 6 figure income - just needed to stay with the same airline for another 5-6 years. "If you switch to another airline, you'll start at the bottom again". It's so strange to think that goes on, but apparently it does. Apparently pilots, to some degree as well. Even if you had 15 years of fla…
It makes sense from the company perspective. Pay for experience with your things, coworkers and processes - reward loyalty.
I think it would make even more sense for software developement, since the code base usually is so extremely specific that there are no other experts then those who work with it. Still the best way to increase wage is to change job to something you have no clue in until a year or two working with it. Saving pennies for a dollar.
Re: Study finds 83% of software developers feel burnout
#270Earlier quoted context omitted.
When we get into "total population" statistics, we kinda leave the realm of statistics lol. There's 15 documented adverse events, but we don't really know how many adverse events there were in total. If we simply study those 15 adverse events, then your population study is only those 15 events (with a hell-of-a-lot of selection bias). ---------- But I'm mostly thinking about how one person I know thinks: "Did you hea…
Sorry but I disagree. The key point is that over a very large population, millions, only 15 people got it. It's just wrong to say it was computed over only 15 people. This study referenced up above had the ~285 or whatever people who answered the survey, not that much info. ~285/350 is not that much data. Anecdotally and based on my own experience I'd agree that the burnout is high, probably over 50%.
Would you agree that we can conclude that the incidence of burnout is high amongst software developers? The "real" level may be 83% or 93% or 43% but it seems fair to conclude that it is indeed some larger than desirable number that merits a larger and more robust study.
That is the value of a study of this size. The ability to quickly determine if there is any "there" there. The headline is sensationalistic but such is the nature of publish or perish science today.