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Delta Variant

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Re: Delta Variant

#271

Post by omegaworks »

blindmute wrote: post #231
murgindrag wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally, my experience is that the main reason is distrust of authority. It's usually warranted distrust too. Authorities aren't trustworthy. To answer your question: (1) Most vaccines don't have 10+ year trials. A year is not even the fastest; the flu on 1957-1958 has a vaccine developed in 4 months. (2) Most medical trials are slower since everything is done sequentially, since there is no rush. You can do an a…

I am unvaccinated and probably will remain so for this particular vaccination. I don't truly believe that the risk of the vaccine outweighs the risk of the virus to me. It's more that I weigh the risk of covid at around zero, and the risk of vaccine at a question mark. I cannot trust the institutions pushing this vaccine at all. At worst, I trust the opposite of what they say about anything politicized. But let's jus…

The amount of cognitive dissonance here is intense.

>I can only make this decision based on my own research.

>Unfortunately I am not qualified to interpret the data meaningfully,

You do your own research but admit that you are unqualified to do that research.

> and I truly believe that if there was data suggesting that the vaccine was equally dangerous to the virus, it would be suppressed.

You believe institutions are untrustworthy yet somehow all of them are able to perfectly coordinate to suppress data.

>The publicized numbers for covid give me essentially a zero risk of any problems, because I am young, fit and healthy.

Nothing about your youth or fitness reduces your risk of transmitting this virus.

>I also know what to expect from a respiratory virus, because I've had those a number of times.

It's clear you either do not know nor desire to know how to protect yourself and others from respiratory viruses. This is a new virus that seems like it jumped to us from bats.

>There is also the aspect of direct action. If I get covid, darn that sucks but people get sick and that's life. If I get some bad side effects from an untrusted injection, I did that to myself and it will feel mentally much worse. All of this is to say, I don't care at all if I get covid, because I'll be fine.

You live in a society. Delta is looking to have an R0 of 4-9, that means if you are infected, on average, you will infect 4-9 new people with the virus. If you are infected and suffer long-term damage to your brain and lungs that makes you unable to work, you will qualify for disability, which is paid for by everyone.

Re: Delta Variant

#272

Post by stavros »

addicted wrote: post #252
timr wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data is even more dramatic: across the UK, the IFR for Delta is ~1/10th that of Alpha, and the "infectiousness" is about the same. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1413537810296950786 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... It is quite clear that for a vaccinated population, it isn't a threat. These are facts that simply aren't being reported by the news media. It's unfortunatel…

Your claim that the media is simply not reporting that vaccinated people are much better protected to the point of it basically not being a threat is not “a fact”. Most media (except, of course, certain anti vaccine organs, which unfortunately seem to have infected an entire section of the mainstream US media) is reporting the significantly better outcomes for the vaccinated. That being said, considering how small a…

> That being said, considering how small a percentage of people are vaccinated, it’s still a massive threat we cannot simply ignore.

It is definitely a massive threat to people who cannot get vaccinated if they want to. In my country, we passed that threshold months ago, so the vast majority of deaths are people who simply chose to not get vaccinated.

Vaccination still continues apace, but nowadays it's mostly people under 25, who are much less likely to be hospitalized. When the vaccinations per day start falling below the max we can physically vaccinate, that'll be the point where everyone who wants a vaccine has gotten one.

Unfortunately for the people who have legitimate reasons to not get vaccinated, there are enough people who distrust vaccines that we'll never be truly free of COVID.

Re: Delta Variant

#273

Post by phkahler »

franciscop wrote: post #72

The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…

Also in the beginning "Depending on which figureyou use, it would put Delta’s R0 between 4 and 9" and toward the end he assume R0 of 8 when talking about herd immunity.

In the What About You section he doesnt even mention those that have had covid, only vaccinated and unvaccinated.

Re: Delta Variant

#274

Post by yalogin »

effie wrote: post #259
bamboozled wrote: post #165

As a reader of HN for several years now, it blows my mind how polarized we all are on this issue. Something smells here, you're not allowed to question anything without being down voted to oblivion, one way or another. Why?

I've noticed this is not U.S. specific, so it is not a political polarization in the traditional sense. The broader world-wide phenomenon, visible also here, is that most people got divided into two camps: 1) "COVID-19 is so dangerous that we must restrict freedoms", "the other camp is a harm to society's health" 2) "COVID-19 is not that dangerous, mortality below 2% (or even lower depending on how it is calculated)…

The way I see it, the camp 1 is at fault only if they are not revising their stance. Otherwise there is nothing to discuss and no two camps story at all. There is only one camp, camp 2.

Re: Delta Variant

#275

Post by throwaway316943 »

api wrote: post #162
usrusr wrote: post #32

Is seems kind of logical in hindsight: the first mutation of the predecessor bat/pangolin/whatever virus genome to cross over to humans is an MVP full of "compatibility bugs" that barely achieves R0>1. A few billion dicerolls later many of those "compatibility bugs" have found fixes. Remember the hand washing phase of the pandemic? Aerosol transmission was basically ruled out because it was assumed that spread would…

This is also why vaccination is so critical and why "young healthy people" should not opt out: when you get the virus, even if it's a mild case, you are in effect donating processing power to what amounts to a global supercomputing project to evolve more virulent strains of COVID. That's how evolution works. The more chances the virus has to replicate, the more likely it is to become more virulent or even worse learn…

That entirely depends on the selection pressure being applied. A vaccine that only targets the spike protein is a great way to select for a mutation with a different spike protein. Limiting human contact selects for strains that can infect during short periods of exposure… oops.

Re: Delta Variant

#276

Post by simonh »

ElectronCharge wrote: post #264
OzyM wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ignoring the higher risk of major long-term damage incurred by letting yourself get sick when you could've been vaccinated, I don't understand how this thought process accounts for anyone else. What if my main reason for getting vaccinated is to lower my chance of infecting an immunocompromised person I care about? Even if I could somehow be 100% certain that if I were to be infected it'd be fully asymptomatic, the v…

[flagged]

Those deaths reported through VAERS are just the number of people who died after being vaccinated, not that died because of vaccination. Those are two different things, which if you've read the CDC source you cite I'm sure you're aware.

The CDC investigates these report and say they have only established a causal link to a handful of blood clotting cases as a result of the J&J vaccine. All the other deaths were unrelated to vaccination.

We have a similar reporting system in the UK. Their investigation of deaths following vaccination says that “review of individual reports and patterns of reporting does not suggest the vaccine played a role in the death”, again with the caveat that a small number of deaths are associated with blood clotting.

Re: Delta Variant

#277

Post by specialist »

throwaway316943 wrote: post #270
specialist wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember the hand washing phase of the pandemic? Guidelines need to be enumerated, like product releases. So much angst would be avoided. When there's a disagreement, the parties (operating in good faith) could go meta and compare guideline versions. Which would help resolve differences. "Oh, you're following guidelines USA-1.4. I see. FYI, last week our governor issued USA-NY-1.5, clarifying protocols for open air…

Even easier would be simply admitting they were wrong about the previous guidelines and explaining why, you know like grown ups.

They did. Repeatedly.

Further, many exposés and post mortems are in progress.

The Premonition https://www.amazon.com/Premonition-Pandemic-Story-Michael-Le...

Uncontrolled Spread: Why COVID-19 Crushed Us and How We Can Defeat the Next Pandemic https://www.amazon.com/Preparing-Inevitable-Normal-Survive-E...

Preventable https://www.amazon.com/Preventable-Leadership-Failures-Selfi...

Move on.

Re: Delta Variant

#278

Post by bamboozled »

OzyM wrote: post #269
bamboozled wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had many vaccines before, I'm not opposed to vaccines. I'm opposed to this particular vaccines because: * There are reports of dangerous side effects after taking it. * It's a new vaccine and the effects of the spike proteins it forces your body to produce have been found in places we were told they wouldn't be found. * No long term studies have been done, even though lipids from the vaccine have been found in r…

All the major side effects I've heard of have been very small in scope, i.e. the chance of a healthy person developing one of the dangerous side effects is extremely small, and certainly orders of magnitude smaller than their chance of proportionally damaging side-effects from the disease itself. As every vaccine currently developed has a small side-effect risk, this seems reasonable, unless you have a major piece of…

You’re doing it again, just stop, it’s not your job to convince people :)

“It’s ok to make a choice, but here’s the consequences asshole”

It’s exactly what I’m opposed too.

Don’t pretend before corona virus you isolated yourself from everyone incase you gave them the flu or norovirus either. Because it’s the same thing now. If an elderly person is vaccinated, and the vaccine is 95% effective, they’d have less chance of dying from coming in contact with an unvaccinated person than from someone with a bad flu.

It’s sad but we also have to remember that old people are more likely to die from a lot of things.

Re: Delta Variant

#279

Post by ElectronCharge »

simonh wrote: post #276
ElectronCharge wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Those deaths reported through VAERS are just the number of people who died after being vaccinated, not that died because of vaccination. Those are two different things, which if you've read the CDC source you cite I'm sure you're aware. The CDC investigates these report and say they have only established a causal link to a handful of blood clotting cases as a result of the J&J vaccine. All the other deaths were unrel…

[flagged]

Re: Delta Variant

#280

Post by throwitaway1235 »

Can we provide the data necessary for young men to take one of the mRNA vaccines for Covid-19?

The question. What percentage of men under 40 have had a cardiovascular event, specifically myocarditis, after taking the Phizer or Moderns shot?

Primary reason I haven't been vaccinated yet.

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