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Delta Variant

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

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Re: Delta Variant

#121

Post by raphlinus »

shkkmo wrote: post #112
raphlinus wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me speak to the second criticism (I'm not sure I fully understand the first one). The quote in context from the paper is: "there is no significant difference between B.1.1.7 and non-B.1.1.7 viruses in total infectiousness predicted by our model" But "predicted by our model" is doing considerable work here, as the model doesn't take into account potential differences in what happens after someone is exposed to the…

Then don't extrapolate viral load to transmissibility like you did in your original comment. Stick to refuting the specific claims that you actually have evidence to address. If you don't understand my summary of the first point, then read the source the article cited for the claim that delta is 60% more transmissible: https://khub.net/documents/135939561/405676950/Increased+Hou...

Thanks for that citation. It is indeed among the strongest evidence for increased transmission. My point is that it is observational rather than biological evidence, which is not the same, and when you do observational studies, there can be many confounders.

Re: Delta Variant

#122

Post by mousepilot »

selectodude wrote: post #107
jibbit wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a vaccinated person - the risk of dying is quite low. That isn't the only criteria i use to decide if something should concern me.

As a vaccinated person, I've never really paid much thought to other diseases that could make me, at worst, mildly ill. One may have to enlighten me as to why this one should be different from, say, influenza in my day to day activities at this point.

My current thinking is for the unvaccinated, its a terrible thing not to be able to take advantage of the vaccine and I tend to wear masks even being vaccinated because of this.

I initially thought that all the vaccine refusenics were politically motivated but I've revised that after actually talking to some folks about why they don't want it.

Still even with me still masking up in many situations, its probably a futile gesture on my part as not many folks share this view. Probably at this point my actions are more symbolic than anything else.

Re: Delta Variant

#123

Post by f38zf5vdt »

franciscop wrote: post #117
mediaman wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how you assess that he is conflating numbers to tell a narrative. Pueyo discusses fatality rates in the article, specifically that the vaccines appear to still be highly effective at preventing deaths (though much less so for infections) and that countries with high vaccination rates are not seeing high death rates even when infections are growing. The only area where he says deaths are getting worse are…

I quoted it, the author warns that we should expect India-level deaths in Europe (that's the clear read from showing mass burning of bodies in India, talking about deaths in India, and saying "if you think Europe or the US will be spared"). But then shows infections growth (not deaths) to prove the point, so yeah it's conflating infections with deaths.

The article specified that high death rates might be expected for developing countries with low vaccination rates, not countries with high vaccination rates.

> So Delta, like Alpha before it, is both more transmissible and more fatal. Both of these effects have the same root: the virus is much better at binding to human cells, so it reproduces much faster.

> Are people dying more then? Not in Britain.

> But Delta is very hard in developing countries, especially in dense urban areas where the poor are forced to work but live in close quarters with many others. India, Argentina, Tunisia, South Africa, and Indonesia are very sad examples of this.

Re: Delta Variant

#124

Post by tremon »

fredros wrote: post #103
GateCrasher wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Netherlands has a decent vaccination rate (38.5% fully vaccinated, something like 66% has received their first shot). The delta variant is wreaking havoc here. The number of cases went from 500 to 10 000 in 3 weeks... Yes this coincided with very poor decision making on the government side (deciding to open all clubs/bars for people who had a negative tests), but still something to be taken serious. So far the #…

> wreaking havoc VS > the # of hospitalizations have stayed low Who shall I believe?

Check back in a week ;)

The spike in cases is very recent, most hospitalizations occur between 3-10 days of onset. [1] reports 31 hospitalizations yesterday (preliminary), a 3-fold increase over last-week's average.

[1] https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/ziekenhui...

Re: Delta Variant

#125

Post by cloverich »

specialp wrote: post #42

I'm not sure what the end game is here. The original plan was "flatten the curve", which meant keep hospitals from getting inundated. Then it became wait for the vaccine. COVID is not going to go away. The vaccine has dramatically decreased the amount of people dying from it. Cases going up without dramatic increases in death or hospitalization might not be a bad thing. The alternative is lockdowns that will never co…

> There are ever present dangers that we just live with like the chances of getting in a car accident and dying, but we decide that these risks are low enough that we carry on normal life.

Because there are no other (tenable) options for car accidents. If there was a vaccine you could take that would prevent you from being harmed in a car accident, and it was cheap (free even) and available, the expectations around car accidents would be quite a bit different.

Re: Delta Variant

#126

Post by rajin444 »

TaupeRanger wrote: post #36
joelbluminator wrote: post #12

Haven't read the piece but I have read a few things by this guy that made me panic. I don't know if he was right or wrong but he has a tendency to be overly bleak. Yes Covid kills, a lot. Also car accidents and air pollution kill a lot. I haven't gained anything from reading this guy despite all the good info, it hasn't given me any action items and I suspect a politician reading him won't gain anything either.

Why would anyone ever compare an exponentially spreading infectious disease with car accidents? They aren't even in the same realm of concern for public health.

Calling disease spread exponential is dishonest. It’s exponential for a time, but there is an upper limit (which is dictated by a ton of complex variables).

Re: Delta Variant

#127

Post by kurthr »

tremon wrote: post #98
franciscop wrote: post #72

The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…

and we are past the potential 2-week delay from cases to deaths Not everywhere. See here, for example: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherland... The Netherlands went from 550 cases/day at the end of June to 10,000 cases/day now. The Delta variant took less than two weeks to spread as much as the EU variant did in two months (Sep 1st - Nov 1st). Of course, it was helped a lot by the government de…

I'm intrigued to know where this 2 week delay comes from. That's comparable to the time from first infection to full symptomatic state, but (based on US data) I see a much longer envelope of at least 2-8 weeks. Maybe this start measured from symptomatic or even test results date, but with test times I'd expect something closer to a 4-6 week delay in the statistics.

https://github.com/ctesta01/animated_covid_rates/blob/master...

Re: Delta Variant

#128

Post by [deleted] »

f38zf5vdt wrote: post #123
franciscop wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I quoted it, the author warns that we should expect India-level deaths in Europe (that's the clear read from showing mass burning of bodies in India, talking about deaths in India, and saying "if you think Europe or the US will be spared"). But then shows infections growth (not deaths) to prove the point, so yeah it's conflating infections with deaths.

The article specified that high death rates might be expected for developing countries with low vaccination rates, not countries with high vaccination rates. > So Delta, like Alpha before it, is both more transmissible and more fatal. Both of these effects have the same root: the virus is much better at binding to human cells, so it reproduces much faster. > Are people dying more then? Not in Britain. > But Delta is…

[deleted]

Re: Delta Variant

#129

Post by f38zf5vdt »

kurthr wrote: post #127
tremon wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and we are past the potential 2-week delay from cases to deaths Not everywhere. See here, for example: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherland... The Netherlands went from 550 cases/day at the end of June to 10,000 cases/day now. The Delta variant took less than two weeks to spread as much as the EU variant did in two months (Sep 1st - Nov 1st). Of course, it was helped a lot by the government de…

I'm intrigued to know where this 2 week delay comes from. That's comparable to the time from first infection to full symptomatic state, but (based on US data) I see a much longer envelope of at least 2-8 weeks. Maybe this start measured from symptomatic or even test results date, but with test times I'd expect something closer to a 4-6 week delay in the statistics. https://github.com/ctesta01/animated_covid_rates/blo…

4-6 week delay is what I observed earlier in the pandemic. Once people go onto ventilators they usually take a while to either get off them or die.

Re: Delta Variant

#130

Post by zzzeek »

franciscop wrote: post #117
mediaman wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how you assess that he is conflating numbers to tell a narrative. Pueyo discusses fatality rates in the article, specifically that the vaccines appear to still be highly effective at preventing deaths (though much less so for infections) and that countries with high vaccination rates are not seeing high death rates even when infections are growing. The only area where he says deaths are getting worse are…

I quoted it, the author warns that we should expect India-level deaths in Europe (that's the clear read from showing mass burning of bodies in India, talking about deaths in India, and saying "if you think Europe or the US will be spared"). But then shows infections growth (not deaths) to prove the point, so yeah it's conflating infections with deaths.

that's not the impression i got at all. the words did not say, "will be spared from the identical outcome as India" and it is obvious that US / EU have better vaccination/ medical infrastructure compared to India. The phrase is a qualitative expression only for the purposes of a blog post, this is not a medical journal article.
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