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Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

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Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#441

Post by nuker »

cs702 wrote: post #174
richwater wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It literally doesn't matter how well it does in 90% of situations when the other 10% can injure or kill people in relatively basic scenarios like the Tweets presented. I mean the car almost ran into a concrete pillar like it wasn't even there. > For BETA software, FSD 9 is doing remarkably well If this was a React website, that'd be great. But it's a production $40,000 multi ton automobile.

> ...doesn't matter how well it does in 90% of situations... Based on the full-length videos, I'd say it's more like 99.9% or even 99.99% for FSD 9.

> Based on the full-length videos, I'd say it's more like 99.9%

You assumed numbers are time. Now assume numbers are manoeuvres.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#442

Post by SZJX »

carlivar wrote: post #407
moralestapia wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Step 1: Become the CEO/major shareholder of a billion+ dollar company. Step 2: Publicly lie about some purported acquisition with the purpose of manipulating the stock of said company. We can talk after you've done that, from jail probably.

The part Musk did: inserted a step 1.5 of building a mythos as someone essentially worshipped by one of history's biggest group of fanboys. You can find a nameless CEO guilty. No one cares. No popular Twitter account or quirky pop culture aspects! But Musk knows his place he has created in our culture has made him untouchable.

Well, it seems to me that the SEC has been extremely lenient for some time now and it’s not exactly news. When was the last time a CEO of a big corp got busted, not to mention got jail time? It applies to the whole supervisory landscape in the US as well, not just the SEC. So I’m not sure how much it has to do with Musk’s perception in the popular culture. The “pedo” case maybe more so, but the SEC part I’m not so sure of.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#443

Post by [deleted] »

moralestapia wrote: post #148
dnautics wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually most of us can do any or all of the following things that Elon did (write a tweet calling a diver a pedo, write a tweet claiming that a stock will go to 420 huh huh, tweet random nonsense about cryptos, criticize the SEC or FAA, etc.) with very little consequence, if any.

Step 1: Become the CEO/major shareholder of a billion+ dollar company. Step 2: Publicly lie about some purported acquisition with the purpose of manipulating the stock of said company. We can talk after you've done that, from jail probably.

[deleted]

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#444

Post by MarkMc »

foepys wrote: post #165
bob33212 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People will die today because a driver was drunk/distracted/suicidal/rode raged or had a medical problem. Are you OK with that or do you think we should attempt to fix that with software? If you do think you should attempt to fix that, do you understand that software engineering is a iterative process? It gets safer overtime.

> People will die today because a driver was drunk/distracted/suicidal/rode raged or had a medical problem. That's a straw man argument. Mandatory breathalyzer tests before every engine start and yearly medical and psychological check-ups would solve a lot of these problems as well. > It gets safer overtime. There is no evidence of this happening yet. It's still trying to drive people into concrete pillars. Remember…

>> It gets safer overtime.

> There is no evidence of this happening yet.

With aircraft any crash or near-crash is investigated and then the software and procedures for all similar aircraft are updated. Over the decades this has resulted in a huge reduction in the rate of accidents. Isn't it likely that the same thing will happen with self-driving cars?

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#445

Post by a-dub »

brianwawok wrote: post #273
BugsJustFindMe wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The post I was responding to said lidar, not radar. But if you want to switch to radar, we can talk about that too. > camera sees air, radar sees wall, slam on brakes Seeing bridges as walls is not a fundamental property of radar. That's an implementation problem. If cars are doing radar poorly, maybe the fix is to start doing it less poorly instead of throwing it away entirely.

Well, that was specifically about blending two different sensors with different characteristics. For you walking, it would be like blending your eyes with your nose. If your eyes tells you the floor is safe, and your nose smells something bad, do you stop? Anytime you have two different sensors with different characteristics, you want "the best". Your body uses your eyes to see where to walk, and your nose to test if…

sensor fusion is used in a lot of places in robotics (and rockets!).

and yes, your percept is constructed from all functioning senses. what you look at and where your attention lands is often directed by your auditory system which can locate things in 3d space.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#446

Post by MarkMc »

Here's an idea, although I'm not sure if it would work:

The government allows Tesla to conduct a randomised control trial: When you get in a Tesla you enter your destination, then there's a 50% chance of having to drive the car manually (the 'control') and 50% chance of having the car drive you (the 'treatment'). After 10 million trips, if the treatment group had fewer accidents than the control group, then Tesla is allowed to roll out self driving to everyone. But on the other hand, if treatment has more accidents than the control group then Tesla must pay, say, $10 million for each excess fatality.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#447

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

BugsJustFindMe wrote: post #215
moralestapia wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Who needs radar right? A few cameras are enough to discern gray concrete structures in the night, oh wait ...

They probably would be if they stopped using such shitty cameras. It always blows my mind that the cameras they use appear to be quite bad for the job. > in the night Purpose-built cameras can see better in the dark than humans can.

>Purpose-built cameras can see better in the dark than humans can.

Define "see better".

Human eyes have way more dynamic range (30 f stops) than even the best cinema camera sensors (14 f stops), and I highly doubt the sensors Tesla use are anywhere close to the gigantic expensive sensors used in cinema cameras and are most likely closer to the sensors in your mobile phone (11 f stops).

So no, no camera sensor can currently match the human eye, let alone the image processing and cognition our brains do on top.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#448

Post by moepstar »

foobarbazetc wrote: post #327
Syonyk wrote: post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

The thing is... everyone knows this. The people writing the code, the people designing the cars, the people allowing the testing, etc etc. What we're seeing in these videos is basically unusable and will never be cleared to drive by itself on real roads. It's just the "the last 10% takes 90% of the time" adage but applied to a situation where you can kill the occupant of the car and/or the people outside it. And that…

I'm really not sure if we've seen the same videos - do you really think we're 90% there?

No, i don't think this is really more than maybe 30% of the journey to FSD - and, most likely, according to what has been shown this time (and the last times) it'll never get there.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#449

Post by Doxin »

soco wrote: post #434
BugsJustFindMe wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the thing. The software shouldn't have to "learn" fundamental basic real world shit like that. We KNOW that things don't just flicker in and out of existence. The system should be built on that premise from the start.

Oh but that's what basically every gps software is doing - one moment you're slowly trailing on the highway, the other you're placed on the bridge above.

Most GPS software is smart enough to not flicker between the highway and the bridge repeatedly though. It's not like this category of problems is a wholly new thing. The car needing to switch lanes twice a second like in one of those videos is fairly unlikely, so if the ML is spitting out that it should, there probably ought to be a layer on top of that that's interpreting the ML output that can take the decision to pick one. Picking the wrong lane is less wrong than being indecisive about it.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#450

Post by ahartmetz »

foobiekr wrote: post #417
Theodores wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A century ago horses had Full Self Driving with the human having to be vigilant and in charge. The horse could go crazy in scary situations endangering others but you could train that out and make a good war horse. Basic stuff like following the road around a bend was something the horse could do but you could not tell it to autonomously go across town to pick someone up. People were okay with horses and knew what to…

Horses do not run into concrete pillars.

Yeah. For the purpose of behavior prediction while driving, horses can be approximated as very dull, very easily panicked humans. They have all the regular instincts (collision avoidance, fear of heights etc) that keep animals alive.

FSD is a complete alien that might try to kill itself for the most trivial and inscrutable reason like the sensor noise excited the neural network in a certain way.

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