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Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

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Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#221

Post by cogman10 »

truffdog wrote: post #200
j7ake wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if algorithmic accidents had biases. For example, let's say a car tended to crash into children (maybe they are harder to detect with cameras), more often than adults. This type of algorithmic bias would be unacceptable no matter how safe FSD were on aggregate. So you're right, the only bar to reach is perfection (which is impossible), because algorithmic errors have biases that will likely deviate from human…

> let's say a car tended to crash into children (maybe they are harder to detect with cameras), more often than adults This is already true today of human drivers because of the tall SUVs that are so popular. Do you think matching biases will be acceptable?

Would you accept it? Would you be ok if a car without a driver ran over your kid, even if they were playing in the local street?

I'd say, absolutely not. The only way we'd accept that is if the kid darted out before the vehicle could slow down, and even then we'd expect super human braking to (hopefully) avoid serious injury.

Also, self driving cars have and advantage that they can put cameras in places typical drivers eyes aren't. They should be able to see a lot more than you can from the driver's seat.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#222

Post by flowerlad »

BugsJustFindMe wrote: post #186
AlexandrB wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The monorail posts and planters would be trivially handled by LIDAR. Tesla's aversion to time of flight sensors often strikes me a premature given our level of planning/perception technology.

They should be trivially handled by stereopsis and structure from motion as well. Stereo+time photogrammetry has been solved well enough to not steer directly towards large obstacles for decades. Overreliance on machine learning pixel models to classify everything in view is the real problem.

Why not have redundant sensors and crosscheck them?

Boeing 737 Max had only one AOA sensor [1], and that wasn't a great idea.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/politics/boeing-sensor-737-ma...

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#223

Post by [deleted] »

jazzyjackson wrote: post #220
toomuchtodo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. Also out in a rural area. Running out to pickup lunch a few minutes ago, a young man flipped their old pickup truck on its side in an intersection, having hit the median for some reason. I too don't understand how humans are allowed to operate on public roads. Most of them are terrible at it. About 35k people a year die in motor veh…

Cars aren’t safe and robots don’t fix it.

[deleted]

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#224

Post by matmatmatmat »

w0m wrote: post #58
toomuchtodo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. Also out in a rural area. Running out to pickup lunch a few minutes ago, a young man flipped their old pickup truck on its side in an intersection, having hit the median for some reason. I too don't understand how humans are allowed to operate on public roads. Most of them are terrible at it. About 35k people a year die in motor veh…

dinddingding. Self Driving cars (Tesla; who is faaaar from it, among others) will kill people. But people are shitty drivers on their own; has to start somewhere and Tesla is the first to get anything close to this level in the hands of the general population (kind of, beta program is still limited in release))

Sure, maybe, but why should my or my family's life be put at risk until they figure it out?

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#225

Post by nradov »

rytor718 wrote: post #90
croes wrote: post #4

I doubt that autonomous driving will work in the next couple of years without infrastructure adjustments. We built roads for cars to replace horses, we will need to built roads for autonmous cars to replace human driven cars.

Ive been saying this for over a decade: we're working on the wrong problem right now with autonomous vehicles. Their chief obstacle is operating on the roads with humans . They need dedicated infrastructure where only autonomous vehicles operate. Anything short of this will be implemented in very restrictive, small, niche areas and never become the new way most people move around. Tesla and Uber, et al have taken thi…

I don't want my tax money wasted on that. In most urban areas there's simply no space for separate autonomous vehicles roads. Would rather see that money spent on maintaining existing roads and improving schools.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#226

Post by foepys »

matz1 wrote: post #202
foepys wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People will die today because a driver was drunk/distracted/suicidal/rode raged or had a medical problem. That's a straw man argument. Mandatory breathalyzer tests before every engine start and yearly medical and psychological check-ups would solve a lot of these problems as well. > It gets safer overtime. There is no evidence of this happening yet. It's still trying to drive people into concrete pillars. Remember…

>Mandatory breathalyzer tests before every engine start We don't do that today and we are still allowing people to drive on the road today.

Exactly. That's why Tesla's approach is bad. There is no rush to let this technology out on the streets before testing it rigorously for flaws. But Tesla promised FSD for all current models with FSD hardware, so they have to move or they will potentially be on the hook for fraud. I call this irresponsible and dangerous.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#228

Post by emodendroket »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #15
Syonyk wrote: post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

> I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. Also out in a rural area. Running out to pickup lunch a few minutes ago, a young man flipped their old pickup truck on its side in an intersection, having hit the median for some reason. I too don't understand how humans are allowed to operate on public roads. Most of them are terrible at it. About 35k people a year die in motor veh…

> I believe the argument is the software will improve to eventually be as good or better than humans, and I have a hard time not believing that, not because the software is good but because we are very bad in aggregate.

But logically this doesn't really follow, does it? That because humans are not capable of doing something without errors a machine is necessarily capable of doing it better? Your argument would be more compelling if Tesla Autopilot logged anything like the number of miles in the variety of conditions that human drivers do. Since it doesn't, it seems like saying that the climate of Antarctica is more hospitable than that of British Colombia, because fewer people have died this year of weather-related causes in the former than the latter.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#229

Post by sidibe »

optimiz3 wrote: post #40
mrRandomGuy wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of all the times to mock someone saying that, I don't think "self-driving-but-not-really-car nearly crashes into things and puts the occupants and bystanders at risk for serious bodily harm as evident by the videos posted above" is one of those times.

Wait till you read the stats and see videos of what humans driving cars regularly do!

Humans do way, way, way better than what we've seen in the FSD beta testers' videos (most of whom are huge Tesla fans)

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#230

Post by jazzyjackson »

bumby wrote: post #211
Syonyk wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The history of human machine interactions makes it clear that if you have the human as the primary control (in the main decision loop, operating things) and the automation watching over their shoulders, it works pretty well. The opposite - where the automation handles the common case, with the human watching, simply does not work. It's not worked in aviation, it's not worked in industrial systems, it's not worked in…

> "I'll do 99.90% of it correctly, you watch and catch the 0.1% when I screw up!" Do you have thoughts on why this is? Is it because, almost by definition, the remaining 0.1% are the toughest problems so the hardest to catch/solve? Or is it a human-factors issue where people get complacent when they know they can count on the machine 99.9% of the time and they lose the discipline to be vigilant enough to catch the re…

You might be interested in a couple of episodes of 99% invisible, called “Children of the Magenta” about pilots becoming complacent because the machine usually takes care of problems for them.

Basically if you grow up with a self driving car and never learn how to handle small fuck ups, how can you ever be expected to recover from a big fuckup? (Bad sensor reading, bad weather, shredded tire, etc)

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