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Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

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Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#141

Post by pasabagi »

Someone wrote: post #132
pasabagi wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just had a look at the list, and I feel that looking at 'dams' is pretty misleading. The point is to look at capacity, no? I mean, nobody in their right mind cares if somebody builds a dam that has a capacity of half a cubic kilometer. So it's a weird dialogue: on the one hand, the only relevant dam, capacity-wise, is the GERD. On the other, there are patently plenty of other damns in the Nile river basin. (Obvious…

I’m not sure about that “totally solvable to mutual satisfaction.” Even if it there is enough water now and they can reach agreement on sharing the water’s advantages (which means Egypt has to give up something), looking at population growth (about 2% a year for Egypt ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt ), 2.9% for Ethiopia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ethiopia ), that can change…

Is per-capita water a relevant metric? I doubt human consumption is a significant portion of water demand - I mean, doesn't farming typically use the vast majority?

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#142

Post by Someone »

pasabagi wrote: post #141
Someone wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure about that “totally solvable to mutual satisfaction.” Even if it there is enough water now and they can reach agreement on sharing the water’s advantages (which means Egypt has to give up something), looking at population growth (about 2% a year for Egypt ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt ), 2.9% for Ethiopia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ethiopia ), that can change…

Is per-capita water a relevant metric? I doubt human consumption is a significant portion of water demand - I mean, doesn't farming typically use the vast majority?

I think so. Why do you think we farm? For fun or to feed the population?

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#143

Post by raincom »

NmAmDa wrote: post #53
ilstormcloud wrote: post #42

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

It is amazing seeing how many lies can a single comment have > More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power Might be true but it is a wide problem and have a root causes that not all belong to the current issue, maybe you forget you are currently in a civil war with army have actions that are war crimes. >More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia Nile river is historically and fr…

There are fundamental problems with international laws; whoever has the power, enforces its version of law. In fact, the state is founded in Law, whose enforcement depends on the monopoly on violence. That's why the State has monopoly on violence; and it takes different forms, through prosecutions, through imprisonments, etc.

Instead of talking about legal perspectives or of interests of Ethiopia or of Egypt, one can talk in terms of 'reasonableness'.

It is reasonable to use the water that drains off Ethiopian watershed; here, Egypt can't use some colonial era treaties unless it wants to colonize Ethiopia. No reasonable person will accept the claim that 95% of Nile water should go to Sudan and Egypt.

You also raise another reasonable point: "It is how long does it take for fill the dam and make it longer so that it reduce its negative effect". This is something many people agree with. However, this can't be solved using the historical outflows to the Nile. Just because 95 percent of the water went downstream to Sudan and Egypt for the last 900 years, one can't expect Ethiopia to release 95% of the water this year. This is where the real dispute lies, and that dispute manifests in terms of "how slow one has to fill up the dam". Maybe, both Egypt and Ethiopia can put percentages: Egypt can say "just release 80% this year, decrease 5% every year until it reaches 50%", or Ethiopia can say "we will release 10% every year until the dam is full". That way, one can see where both parties stand.

Law without violence(enforcement) is useless. Colonial powers had that power when they assigned most of the water to Egypt and Sudan. One can't expect this now.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#144

Post by jtbayly »

MereInterest wrote: post #100
JacobiX wrote: post #2

The article mention : "Egypt fears its supplies will be reduced during the time it takes to fill the 74-billion-cubic-metre capacity reservoir." From information that I can find, the filling can take up to 7 years !

I'm lacking a bit of context. Your comment implies that 7 years is a long time to fill a reservoir. I can't find, either in your comment or in the article, mention of whether that time is long due to the amount of water needed (the bathtub is big), or whether that timeline is deliberately long to avoid impacting downstream usage (the bathtub faucet is at a trickle). From the article, the Nile river is estimated to ca…

This is an earlier tributary, so it’s definitely not going to be the equivalent of the full Nile in volume.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#145

Post by Zimzallabim »

NmAmDa wrote: post #98
pasabagi wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just had a look at the list, and I feel that looking at 'dams' is pretty misleading. The point is to look at capacity, no? I mean, nobody in their right mind cares if somebody builds a dam that has a capacity of half a cubic kilometer. So it's a weird dialogue: on the one hand, the only relevant dam, capacity-wise, is the GERD. On the other, there are patently plenty of other damns in the Nile river basin. (Obvious…

One of the main problems is the Ethiopian PM is using this issue to his benefit to try and unify all people around him and make them ignore all things that he is doing in other issues like what happens in Tigary. That makes something like making compromises which is needed for any serious negotiations is a bad PR and making him looks weak.

The dam is actually the one issue that Ethiopians agree upon regardless of who the head of government is. The stance of Ethiopian government has not changed between EPRDF and the current ruling party.

Ethiopians have always been united when it comes to the GERD because it's not just a political stunt. It's a matter of development and survival just as it is for the Egyptian people. That's why it's best for Egypt's government refrain from making threats and negotiate in good faith.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#146

Post by pasabagi »

Someone wrote: post #142
pasabagi wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is per-capita water a relevant metric? I doubt human consumption is a significant portion of water demand - I mean, doesn't farming typically use the vast majority?

I think so. Why do you think we farm? For fun or to feed the population?

To produce export goods?

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#147

Post by dang »

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #37

Egypt's problem is population growth: https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ And in particular their fertility rate, which remains stubbornly high at 3.33 children per woman. A popular meme has been that as countries and people get richer, they have fewer children. But, that is not occurring in Egypt, which is about twice as rich as India or Bangladesh, but has about 50% more children. Really, its just Egyptia…

We've banned this account. You can't post slurs like this to HN.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#148

Post by dang »

jiggawatts wrote: post #41
ArkanExplorer wrote: post #37

Egypt's problem is population growth: https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ And in particular their fertility rate, which remains stubbornly high at 3.33 children per woman. A popular meme has been that as countries and people get richer, they have fewer children. But, that is not occurring in Egypt, which is about twice as rich as India or Bangladesh, but has about 50% more children. Really, its just Egyptia…

This shouldn't be voted down into oblivion. Some truths are uncomfortable to hear, but that doesn't make them less true. When I was in Egypt, everywhere I looked I saw signs of overpopulation and an idle, largely uneducated workforce standing around half the day in bread lines kilometres long.

Not only should it have been downvoted, we've banned the account. Religious and nationalistic flamewar is not allowed here, and outright slurs are utterly not ok.

If you have something thoughtful and substantive to say about conditions in Egyptian society, or any other society, that's different.

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