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Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

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Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#151

Post by dnautics »

moralestapia wrote: post #148
dnautics wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually most of us can do any or all of the following things that Elon did (write a tweet calling a diver a pedo, write a tweet claiming that a stock will go to 420 huh huh, tweet random nonsense about cryptos, criticize the SEC or FAA, etc.) with very little consequence, if any.

Step 1: Become the CEO/major shareholder of a billion+ dollar company. Step 2: Publicly lie about some purported acquisition with the purpose of manipulating the stock of said company. We can talk after you've done that, from jail probably.

My point is, I can lie about purported acquisitions of companies now.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#152

Post by moralestapia »

mortenjorck wrote: post #125
Syonyk wrote: post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Nine versions in, I would expect ongoing challenges with things like you mention. But continued failure to even see large, flat obstacles is no longer something that needs to be fixed – that it has persisted this long (even after killing someone as in the case of T-boning a semi trailer at highway speeds) is an indictment of the entire approach Tesla has been taking to FSD. I used…

>The monorail video is jaw-dropping.

Who needs radar right? A few cameras are enough to discern gray concrete structures in the night, oh wait ...

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#153

Post by cameldrv »

cs702 wrote: post #120

Many of the comments here seem a bit... unfair to me, considering that these clips were handpicked. I watched (and fast-forwarded) through a few of the original, full-length videos from which these clips were taken. The full-length videos show long drives (in some cases, hours long) almost entirely without human intervention, under conditions explicitly meant to be difficult for self-driving vehicles. One thing I rea…

Supposedly there are a "few thousand" FSD beta testers, and only a small fraction of them are videoing their drives and uploading them to YouTube. Beta 9 has existed for 2 days. This puts a pretty high lower bound on the serious error rate.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#154

Post by sidewndr46 »

timroman wrote: post #94
sidewndr46 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're going to build what amounts to new infrastructure, shouldn't we build transportation infrastructure that does away with the need to own cars? At least for transport in urban and suburban areas.

IMHO they're the same thing. Automate all cars to get around the right of way and high construction costs that limit rail development. I think the upgrades needed to roads are minimal in comparison. Maybe some sensors and signals but it may be just perfecting signage, lines, etc.

Upgrading or retrofitting existing infrastructure to accommodate $60,000 luxury vehicles is not the same thing as building infrastructure that removes the need for car ownership.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#155

Post by Syonyk »

flutas wrote: post #150
mortenjorck wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Nine versions in, I would expect ongoing challenges with things like you mention. But continued failure to even see large, flat obstacles is no longer something that needs to be fixed – that it has persisted this long (even after killing someone as in the case of T-boning a semi trailer at highway speeds) is an indictment of the entire approach Tesla has been taking to FSD. I used…

I think a big issue with that instance (monorail) is probably because they just threw out years of radar data without having a comparable reliability in place with the vision only. Completely mental that they are allowed to run this on public roadways.

I'm not sure radar would help - the pillar is a stationary object, and car based radar tends to drop all returns at the same rate as the car is moving forward. Radar isn't terribly precise, so you end up with tons of returns off signs, bridge abutments, etc.

Remember, with radar, Teslas will happily autopilot themselves into a semi truck across the road, stopped fire trucks, concrete road barriers, etc. I see no reason to believe that a stationary concrete pillar in the middle of the road would be avoided any better with radar than without.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#156

Post by j7ake »

These spectacular fails weaken the rationalist's arguments that "as long as FSD achieves lower deaths per km driven (or any other metric) than humans" then FSD should be accepted in favor of human driving.

Even if "on aggregate" FSD performs safer (by some metric) than humans, as long as FSD continues to fail in a way that would have been easily preventable had a human been at the wheel, FSD will not be accepted into society.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#157

Post by AlexandrB »

mortenjorck wrote: post #125
Syonyk wrote: post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Nine versions in, I would expect ongoing challenges with things like you mention. But continued failure to even see large, flat obstacles is no longer something that needs to be fixed – that it has persisted this long (even after killing someone as in the case of T-boning a semi trailer at highway speeds) is an indictment of the entire approach Tesla has been taking to FSD. I used…

The monorail posts and planters would be trivially handled by LIDAR. Tesla's aversion to time of flight sensors often strikes me a premature given our level of planning/perception technology.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#158

Post by AtlasBarfed »

stsmwg wrote: post #29

One of the questions I've repeatedly had regarding FSD (and Tesla's approach in particular) is the notion of memory. While a lot of these scenarios are disturbing, I've seen people wavering on lanes, exits and attempting to turn the wrong way onto one-way streets. People have memory, however. If we go through the same confusing intersection a few times, we'll learn how to deal with that specific intersection. It seem…

Humans have an ... ok ... driving algorithm for unfamiliar roads. It's improved a lot with maps/directions software, but it still sucks, especially the more dense you get.

Routes people drive frequently are much more optimized: knowledge of specific road conditions like potholes, undulations, sight lines, etc.

I would like to have centrally curated AI programs for routes rather than a solve-everything adhoc program like Tesla is doing.

However, the adhoc/memoryless model will still work ok on highway miles I would guess.

What I really want is extremely safe highway driving more than automated a trip to Taco Bell.

I personally think Tesla is doing ...ok. The beta 9 is marginally better than the beta 8 from the youtubes I've seen. Neither are ready for primetime, but both are impressive technical demonstrations.

If they did a full-from-scratch about three or four years ago then this is frankly pretty amazing.

Of course with Tesla you have the fanboys (he is the technogod of the future!) and the rabid haters (someone equated him with Donald Trump, please).

A basic uncertainty lookup map would probably be a good thing. How many tesla drivers took control in this area/section? What is the reported certainties by the software for this area/section?

It's all a black box, google's geofencing, Tesla, once-upon-a-time Uber, GM supercruise, etc.

A twitter account listing failures is meaningless without the grand scheme of statistics and success rates. A Twitter account of human failures would be even scarier.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#159

Post by manmal »

Is FSD still operating on a frame-by-frame basis? I remember it was discussed on Autonomy day that the ideal implementation would operate on video feeds, and not just the last frame, to improve accuracy.

When you look at the dashboard visualizations of the cars‘ surroundings, the model that is built up looks quirky and inconsistent. Other cars flicker into view for one frame and disappear again; lane markings come and go. I saw a video where a car in front of the Tesla indicated, and the traffic light in the visualization (wrongly) started switching from red to green and back, in sync with the indicator blinking.

How could a car behave correctly as long as its surroundings model is so flawed? As long as the dashboard viz isn’t a perfect mirror of what’s outside, this simply cannot work.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#160

Post by moralestapia »

dnautics wrote: post #151
moralestapia wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Step 1: Become the CEO/major shareholder of a billion+ dollar company. Step 2: Publicly lie about some purported acquisition with the purpose of manipulating the stock of said company. We can talk after you've done that, from jail probably.

My point is, I can lie about purported acquisitions of companies now.

Come on, dnautics. This is not hard.

You're neither an insider of said companies, nor are you a public figure with enough influence to actually manipulate the market.

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