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Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

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Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#121
post #16

It appears Tesla FSD just ignores things it doesn't understand, which is really dangerous in a production vehicle.

Yes, and it's quite disturbing. I just went on a road trip with a friend, and despite passing a few bicyclists, the car (with radar sensors) did not detect any of them.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are going to need a fundamental breakthrough in AI to achieve the level of FSD that people expect. Like a convolutional neural network level breakthrough.

I don't think that's necessarily true. There are plenty of people in the AV space that routinely drive significantly better than this and are already doing completely driverless service in some geofences. The problem with Tesla's approach has always been that Elon wanted to sell it before he actually knew anything about how to solve it. It's lead to series of compounding errors in Tesla's approach to AVs. The vehicle…

We need so many compute and TFLOPS before the software has been completed but it won't surprise me if they come up with Tesla Cloud driving powered by Starlink with a bunch of hamsters in a warehouse somewhere actually driving the car.

I mean they trained pigeon's to guide bombs in WW2.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#123
Question: Would it be awesome if FDA allowed Pharma to conduct drug-tests like this? Put a "beta-2.9" on the vial and let people try it out...

Some may die, be disabled or may linger in vegetative state life-long, but it was their choice afterall and the it can argued that medicinal side-effects are very small cause of mortality and hence long-term the "public beta tests" will make drugs more effective and save more lives!

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#124
post #74
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to posit that none of those novel skill requirements are actually requirements. You don't need to interpret a UI, or recognize intent to know that the car shouldn't turn the wrong way on a one-way street or hit a planter. Anticipating common errors and remaining vigilant while driving is a requirement for all driving, not when dealing with FSD. If you are capable of driving a car safely to begin with, then…

What makes them required is the speed that a reaction is expected. In both the quick and velocity senses of the word. Unless the user is able to understand and anticipate common reactions, the entire system is unsafe at >25 mph or so. Or, to put it another way, I'd love to see the statistics on how many drivers can react quickly enough to avert an unexpected turn into an exit divider at 60 mph, after a number of days…

We’re largely talking about an update where the primary benefit is low-speed automation — driving in areas where the speed limits are low because the obstacles are many.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#125
post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

The monorail video is jaw-dropping.

Nine versions in, I would expect ongoing challenges with things like you mention. But continued failure to even see large, flat obstacles is no longer something that needs to be fixed – that it has persisted this long (even after killing someone as in the case of T-boning a semi trailer at highway speeds) is an indictment of the entire approach Tesla has been taking to FSD.

I used to think FSD was just a matter of getting enough training for the models, but this has changed my mind. When you still require a disengagement not to negotiate some kind of nuanced edge case, but to avoid driving straight into a concrete pylon, it's time to throw it all out and start over.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#126
post #123

Question: Would it be awesome if FDA allowed Pharma to conduct drug-tests like this? Put a "beta-2.9" on the vial and let people try it out... Some may die, be disabled or may linger in vegetative state life-long, but it was their choice afterall and the it can argued that medicinal side-effects are very small cause of mortality and hence long-term the "public beta tests" will make drugs more effective and save more…

Depends on how much the drug costs. If it costs 100k a pop, then I don't see the general public being affected by it too much. RIP those brave rich souls.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#127
post #33

I watched a human driver in a BMW weave at 90 mph through traffic yesterday, swerving back and forth between lanes inches from other peoples cars. If Tesla can make a car that's even 1% less dangerous than human drivers, that could be thousands of deaths avoided every year. Humans should not be allowed to drive cars on public streets.

But that surely is the description of 1% of the drivers. It should be better than the 1% worst drivers. It should be demonstrably safer than humans on average with a good margin.

Even if they accomplish that, people will move the goal posts. People are illogical and will see some edge case that self driving might perform worse at, but on an aggregate data basis it might be 10x safer than human drivers. People will see that 1 edge case and say that self driving cars are worse than humans.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#128
post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Nine versions in, I would expect ongoing challenges with things like you mention. But continued failure to even see large, flat obstacles is no longer something that needs to be fixed – that it has persisted this long (even after killing someone as in the case of T-boning a semi trailer at highway speeds) is an indictment of the entire approach Tesla has been taking to FSD. I used…

I agree. Not sure if I'd be able to trust it again after an incident like this at least in similar situations where there are obstacles so close to the road.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#129
post #120

Many of the comments here seem a bit... unfair to me, considering that these clips were handpicked. I watched (and fast-forwarded) through a few of the original, full-length videos from which these clips were taken. The full-length videos show long drives (in some cases, hours long) almost entirely without human intervention, under conditions explicitly meant to be difficult for self-driving vehicles. One thing I rea…

It literally doesn't matter how well it does in 90% of situations when the other 10% can injure or kill people in relatively basic scenarios like the Tweets presented. I mean the car almost ran into a concrete pillar like it wasn't even there.

> For BETA software, FSD 9 is doing remarkably well

If this was a React website, that'd be great. But it's a production $40,000 multi ton automobile.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#130
post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

Because Elon doesn't operate under the same jurisdiction as us common people. Try calling out a random diver a 'pedo', or perform the most cynical kind of market manipulation (then laughing to the SEC at their face) and your outcome will be very different. It's Animal Farm all over.

Actually most of us can do any or all of the following things that Elon did (write a tweet calling a diver a pedo, write a tweet claiming that a stock will go to 420 huh huh, tweet random nonsense about cryptos, criticize the SEC or FAA, etc.) with very little consequence, if any.
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