Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary • Hacker News Board

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#91

Post by pasabagi » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 10:54 AM UTC

ilstormcloud wrote: post #39

RegnisGnaw wrote: post #11

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

There are a couple of reasons this is unlikely to happen. A. The dam already contains more than 4.9 billion cubic meters of water. That along with the wet season rain will mean breaching it will result in catastrophic flooding of Sudan which will result in death and loss of arable land. Each day that goes on, the water level is increasing, after a some time, Egypt itself will face flooding. B. Egypt has powerful mili…

> E. Ethiopia is currently a divided country. But when it comes to the dam, its people are 100% on the same page.

If I was an unpopular regime, I would see this, and feel pretty good about my chances of exploiting it. A war you can probably win against a much more powerful enemy, over an issue you have broad support for, is like a golden goose for an unstable government.

You can be as obnoxious and intransigent as you like, because the negotiations will be behind closed doors, and you'll still seem like you're representing the national interest.

On the other hand, if you're Egypt, a war you will probably lose is also very valuable. It's a good way to rally people around the flag when it looks like it might happen, then if it does come down to it, often 'probably losing' a war is way better than definitely losing a leadership challenge.

So again, the incentives are to be obnoxious and intransigent. You don't want this issue to go away - it's a really good option to have in your back pocket if you get into trouble.

So the politics here are pretty bleak.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#92

Post by ilstormcloud » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 10:56 AM UTC

atlasunshrugged wrote: post #45

ilstormcloud wrote: post #42

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

I didn't realize that the number of people without power in Ethiopia was quite so high, my impression was that it was more developed. I also have 0% belief that Kenya, Uganda, and Djibouti would take military action against Ethiopia. They all have their own internal problems and I doubt they would want to get mixed up in a war in which they have little to benefit from (what would the Egyptians give them?). Random que…

We're all happy the election (most of it anyways) concluded peacefully. There was a fear of violence that didn't materialize. The results indicate a massive win for the PM's party. Given how popular he is, I was expecting his party to win, but not by this margin.

As for Tigray, people here are really pessimistic. Over the past 8 months, the Ethiopian government narrative was that the people of Tigray and the political party that rules them (the TPLF) were two different entities and that the former needs to be free from the latter (TPLF has ruled there probably for more than 4 decades, they had their shot).

And the TPLF narrative was that it, and the people of Tigray are one and the same. That TPLF was the only power that can protect/save Tigray. And that if it doesn't get its way it will take Tigray out of the Ethiopian Federation.

After 8 month of conflict, the only reason TPLF still exists is because it has popular support of the Tigrayan public. And the PM basically acknowledged as much.

TPLF has been a bad actor in Ethiopian life. I personally will not be okay with 70 year old TPLF cadres and generals continuing the game they played for 30 years. And I believe the overwhelming majority of Ethiopians will not accept them.

So, if Tigray accepts TPLF, and the rest of Ethiopia rejects it completely, then we're stuck.

Just like there are people in Tigray that want to break away, there are people in the rest of Ethiopia that want them to break away (paraphrasing, "nothing comes out of Tigray, their ambition and their actual population size is not matching up and they're not worth the trouble". This is really dangerous for Tigray because, despite their bravado, it's one of the poorest area in Ethiopia. It has food security issues even in the best of times. TPLF seems to be wanting to leverage the threat of breaking away to get concessions. I don't think they realize just how bad public opinion has soured against Tigray.

Of course, take everything with a grain of salt --- I'm not in politics. My sources are just people here (Like my taxi driver from Tigray who was upset and concerned about a youtuber calling for Tigray to break away).

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#93

Post by NmAmDa » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 10:58 AM UTC

Zimzallabim wrote: post #75

NmAmDa wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is amazing seeing how many lies can a single comment have > More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power Might be true but it is a wide problem and have a root causes that not all belong to the current issue, maybe you forget you are currently in a civil war with army have actions that are war crimes. >More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia Nile river is historically and fr…

> Nile river is historically and from legal perspective an international river not an Ethiopian property Ethiopia has never claimed the Nile is its sole property. It's seeking fair use of a dam on its own territory and equitable sharing of the waters in a manner that doesn't infringes on its sovereignty. >...a Wikipedia page the list all of Ethiopian dams I don't see a single dam aside from the GERD on the list that'…

No one said that building the dam is not their rights but devil is always in details. The problem lies with two things

1- An agreement about the dam and how it operates because when it is in full operation and something happen this will be catastrophic to sudan and Egypt

2- Reduce the impact of water shortage to egypt ans sudan by extending the timeline for fulfillment

Again these two points is always the core of negotiations not the idea of dam existence itself. So saying this is not even something for a discussion.

* the agreement between sudan and Egypt is about how to share their percentage or what drainage countries get. Do you say that all other countries get 0 drops of water from the Nile?

* In 2015 Egypt had agreed that Ethiopia can build the dam and continue negotiations about the reducing impact and agreement about the dam which Ethiopia evaded this for 6 years? What can you say about that? People who wants a military actions will not negotiate for a 10 years. Take isreal and their indirect and direct attacks on Iranian nuclear program because they see it as a potential existential threat ( which is something doable that they will have). If Ethiopia is refusing all the diplomatic solution to cooperate and wants to do what it wants only, what do you think a US will do if it was in Egypt place. Taking US history into consideration I doubt they will negotiate before paralyzing Ethiopian army at least.

* regarding treaties, Ethiopia took the land from sudan with an agreement with British against Sudanese will, it is a colonial era agreement that Ethiopian ignore when they talk about their rights and how these treaty about nile was forced on them. So extend the logic and get the land back and then negotiate a fair deal with all nile countries.

Hint: Until a couple of months ago, Ethiopians were occupying large area from Sudanese land ( even without an colonial treaty) and they said they will act by military if sudan didn't withraw from their lands. https://www.reuters.com/article/sudan-ethiopia-int-idUSKBN29...

And thanks for down voting.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#94

Post by ilstormcloud » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 10:58 AM UTC

Popegaf wrote: post #67

ilstormcloud wrote: post #42

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

> * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. > * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project? > * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain Typical, colonial forces left a mess everywhere they went. India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, pretty much all of Africa, my histor…

> Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project?

The major source: For most of the decade, for each bank loan, 27% of it goes to the construction of the dam. And then, most employees have given at least 1 month of their salary to the dam.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#95

Post by ilstormcloud » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 11:01 AM UTC

mongol wrote: post #56

ilstormcloud wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a couple of reasons this is unlikely to happen. A. The dam already contains more than 4.9 billion cubic meters of water. That along with the wet season rain will mean breaching it will result in catastrophic flooding of Sudan which will result in death and loss of arable land. Each day that goes on, the water level is increasing, after a some time, Egypt itself will face flooding. B. Egypt has powerful mili…

> And the Nile is not like the Amazon river in that it doesn't contain as much water. I don't understand what this means.

Means the volume of water and flaw rate, in the Nile is much less than the Amazon river.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#96

Post by vagrantJin » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 11:01 AM UTC

Popegaf wrote: post #67

ilstormcloud wrote: post #42

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

> * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. > * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project? > * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain Typical, colonial forces left a mess everywhere they went. India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, pretty much all of Africa, my histor…

> What's crazy is how things still are in such disarray so long after they retreated.

I think it's adorable that you think they "retreated".

Perhaps in another forum I can give you a "low-down" on why the African former colonies are an economic mess, why France and England left physically but not politically or economically, and ofcourse why African leaders visit European powers as one of the first things they do after elections. I may also wax on and wax off about China in Africa. Maybe Libya and the crisis there too.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#97

Post by lazyasciiart » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 11:01 AM UTC

jiggawatts wrote: post #48

smnrchrds wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's getting downvoted because it's blatantly racist. How else do you interpret this but racism: > Earth is not gaining much by having millions of Egyptians - just increased resource degradation EDIT: It also says the reason for Egypt's higher fertility rate is Islam, while comparing it to Bangladesh, another Muslim country. So it's not like the comment is racist but insightful if you ignore racism. It's racist and n…

Historically, Catholicism was also responsible for a high birth rate because of their religious dogma. Is that racist or a factual observation? Not everything is racist. Racism is when you judge someone by their ethnicity alone. Racism is when you deny someone opportunities based only on their skin colour. Etc... I'm not going to automatically assume that every Irish woman I meet is a baby-making machine just because…

I think you missed the point. To look at two Muslim countries and say one has slower population growth because the other is Islamic is not racist. It is nonsensical.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#98

Post by NmAmDa » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 11:04 AM UTC

pasabagi wrote: post #87

sgift wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see a single dam aside from the GERD on the list that's on the Nile. So I don't see how you could say it's a lie. Are you suggesting a dam on any tributary river in Ethiopia is subject to Egypt's wishes? It sounds obvious to me that a dam on a tributary river to Nile is for the purpose of the problem here like a dam on Nile since it reduces the water available downwards in Nile.

I just had a look at the list, and I feel that looking at 'dams' is pretty misleading. The point is to look at capacity, no? I mean, nobody in their right mind cares if somebody builds a dam that has a capacity of half a cubic kilometer. So it's a weird dialogue: on the one hand, the only relevant dam, capacity-wise, is the GERD. On the other, there are patently plenty of other damns in the Nile river basin. (Obvious…

One of the main problems is the Ethiopian PM is using this issue to his benefit to try and unify all people around him and make them ignore all things that he is doing in other issues like what happens in Tigary. That makes something like making compromises which is needed for any serious negotiations is a bad PR and making him looks weak.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#99

Post by ilstormcloud » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 11:09 AM UTC

NmAmDa wrote: post #53

ilstormcloud wrote: post #42

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

It is amazing seeing how many lies can a single comment have > More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power Might be true but it is a wide problem and have a root causes that not all belong to the current issue, maybe you forget you are currently in a civil war with army have actions that are war crimes. >More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia Nile river is historically and fr…

> Nile river is historically and from legal perspective an international river not an Ethiopian property. Violating this always comes with consequences.

The Nile is an international river. All of us accept that. But you should reconsider if you think Ethiopia will accept any treaties that Egypt signed with its colonial master (without Ethiopia being present).

As for consequences, We've been facing the consequences of this for all our lives in the form of food insecurity, famine, rolling blackouts. I will trade food and power for Egyptian military threats or American sanctions. So your consequences are not really that scary considering what's at stake.

* There are 11 countries in the basin. Of the 11, only Egypt and Sudan are using it for any development project.

* Since it's an international resource, we should all be using it.

* Since Egypt and Sudan gets 100% of the benefit, they will likely see a decrease. That's the physical reality

* Right now, Ethiopia gets 0%. We'll increase it.

The gotcha comments don't do much to address the reality on the ground. And it's not particularly merit-worthy for me to bother going point by point "debunking" you. And we're already deep in flame-war territory which is strongly discouraged on HN.

Good luck

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#100

Post by MereInterest » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 11:16 AM UTC

JacobiX wrote: post #2

The article mention : "Egypt fears its supplies will be reduced during the time it takes to fill the 74-billion-cubic-metre capacity reservoir." From information that I can find, the filling can take up to 7 years !

I'm lacking a bit of context. Your comment implies that 7 years is a long time to fill a reservoir. I can't find, either in your comment or in the article, mention of whether that time is long due to the amount of water needed (the bathtub is big), or whether that timeline is deliberately long to avoid impacting downstream usage (the bathtub faucet is at a trickle).

From the article, the Nile river is estimated to carry 84 billion cubic meters per year, so the reservoir holds roughly one Nile-year of water. Filling over 7 years means that the downstream flow would be reduced by ~1/7 during that time period.