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Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

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Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#71
Unfortunately, we have no real way, even theoretically of resolving these disputes besides war, or negotiations premised on the possibility of war. Hopefully (and IMO likely), this will all be resolved by negotiated compromises. All sides are currently developing their credible threats of war to be used as currency at a negotiation table.

There's a pretty real "mutual destruction" incentive to keep the conflict contained. Dams are vulnerable.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#72
post #67

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

> * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. > * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project? > * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain Typical, colonial forces left a mess everywhere they went. India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, pretty much all of Africa, my histor…

They generally found messes and left messes, sometimes better sometimes worse (depending on who you ask). You didn't think the Middle East, South America, Africa, subcontinent etc everyone just sat around singing kumbaya until "colonialists" came along did you?

The "noble savage" is a thoroughly debunked, backward idea.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#73
post #67

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

> * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. > * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project? > * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain Typical, colonial forces left a mess everywhere they went. India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, pretty much all of Africa, my histor…

>Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project?

The cost is $4.2 billion according to the article, and Ethiopia's GDP is $272 billion. It's not a mystery to see the project get financing, though I imagine the risk of war warped the deal somewhat.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#74
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"every year but a handful" True, but the effect of TFR on total population depends on the base too. A growth from 3.0 to 3.5 between 2005 and 2015 means quite a lot of extra children born, because Egypt of 2005 had already 75 million people.

That's entirely besides the point, which is that the comment I replied to rested fundamentally on ignoring the sustained drop, which has resumed, to push a narrative of Egypt being an exception to fertility rates dropping as a country develops.

Well, the original topic of this discussion is water scarcity, and that is determined by absolute # of people living in the Nile basin. Not by just TFR. One can argue that in order to achieve sustainable levels of population, the TFR should have dropped much more and much earlier than it actually did, and discuss the reasons why the decline wasn't as fast.

After all, with the concentration of people in the Nile delta, everyone had to be aware of the fact that their country is becoming dangerously overcrowded by 1990 at least. Possibly sooner.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#75
post #53

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

It is amazing seeing how many lies can a single comment have > More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power Might be true but it is a wide problem and have a root causes that not all belong to the current issue, maybe you forget you are currently in a civil war with army have actions that are war crimes. >More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia Nile river is historically and fr…

> Nile river is historically and from legal perspective an international river not an Ethiopian property

Ethiopia has never claimed the Nile is its sole property. It's seeking fair use of a dam on its own territory and equitable sharing of the waters in a manner that doesn't infringes on its sovereignty.

>...a Wikipedia page the list all of Ethiopian dams

I don't see a single dam aside from the GERD on the list that's on the Nile. So I don't see how you could say it's a lie. Are you suggesting a dam on any tributary river in Ethiopia is subject to Egypt's wishes?

>But these Colonial era agreements are the same...

No they are not. Ethiopia was NOT a party to the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian treaty unlike the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian treaty regarding the border w/ Sudan.

>This is an agreement about how they share their mutual share...

According to you, mutual share means that Egypt gets 66% Sudan gets 22%, the rest is lost to evaporation and Ethiopia gets 0. Just as agreed upon by Egypt & the British in the colonial agreement.

>10 years of negotiating that they provided Ethiopia...

Curious that you characterize Egypt's approach as negotiation when 10 years ago when Ethiopia started building the Dam, Egypt's president "negotiated" by stating that "all options are on the table". Egypt has obstinately held on to the idea that it is entitled to a specific amount of water it has historically been afforded per year in perpetuity regardless of the conditions of the Nile or in Ethiopia.

The fact of the matter is the Egyptian government is upset that it is no longer capable of holding a monopoly over the Nile.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also to put things in context, if they rename Egypt to Nile: The Country , it would be more accurate. Egypt is a country of 100 million people, all of them living next to the Nile or in its delta. It's unbelievable how much Egypt is dependant on Nile for its existence. Any disruption in Nile will have severe negative effects on the lives of 100 million people and be an existential threat to Egypt. Just take a look at…

> all of them living next to the Nile or in its delta Your own heat map shows that this isn’t the case - they also live on the coast.

Wow nice one Einstein people live next to water wow cool damn you smart

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#77

Unfortunately, we have no real way, even theoretically of resolving these disputes besides war, or negotiations premised on the possibility of war. Hopefully (and IMO likely), this will all be resolved by negotiated compromises. All sides are currently developing their credible threats of war to be used as currency at a negotiation table. There's a pretty real "mutual destruction" incentive to keep the conflict conta…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#78
post #67

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

> * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. > * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project? > * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain Typical, colonial forces left a mess everywhere they went. India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, pretty much all of Africa, my histor…

I'm not sure what argument you're making; that it was the fault of the British for not colonising Ethiopia?

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#79
post #67

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

> * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. > * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project? > * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain Typical, colonial forces left a mess everywhere they went. India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, pretty much all of Africa, my histor…

> things still are in such disarray so long after they retreated

What is “so long”? Reading online, I see that Ethiopia was not fully colonized, but Europe/UK were attacking and meddling in its affairs even in the 1930s.

What most of the West doesn’t realize, is that colonization is majorly impactful and leads to disarray for decades, if not centuries. Countries need time to stabilize, after being systematically dismantled and robbed by colonizers.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#80
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. > * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project? > * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain Typical, colonial forces left a mess everywhere they went. India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, pretty much all of Africa, my histor…

They generally found messes and left messes, sometimes better sometimes worse (depending on who you ask). You didn't think the Middle East, South America, Africa, subcontinent etc everyone just sat around singing kumbaya until "colonialists" came along did you? The "noble savage" is a thoroughly debunked, backward idea.

Wow, didn’t realize there are racists like you on HN.

Do you posit that the colonizers were born “noble” and the “savages” are just somehow so bad at handling their affairs?

Please read more, and learn more, about the world’s history from a non-colonizer lens.

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