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Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

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Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#41

Egypt's problem is population growth: https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ And in particular their fertility rate, which remains stubbornly high at 3.33 children per woman. A popular meme has been that as countries and people get richer, they have fewer children. But, that is not occurring in Egypt, which is about twice as rich as India or Bangladesh, but has about 50% more children. Really, its just Egyptia…

This shouldn't be voted down into oblivion.

Some truths are uncomfortable to hear, but that doesn't make them less true.

When I was in Egypt, everywhere I looked I saw signs of overpopulation and an idle, largely uneducated workforce standing around half the day in bread lines kilometres long.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#42
To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia.

* More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power.

* Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress.

* The Nile basin contains some 11 countries

* More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia

* Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin

* Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use the Nile river for irrigation and power generation.

* This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain (Then ruling Egypt) brokered agreements which "gave" Egypt usage and veto rights. Most of the Nile basin countries were colonies of GB and they had no say in the matter (that I can find recorded in history). Ethiopia was an exception as it was not colonized, but it was not consulted by the British and is not signatory to the agreements. And It was fighting to maintain its independence against Europe so it had little power to spare for water politics at the time.

* In 1959, The Sudanese and Egyptians governments met and awarded each other 18.5 billion cubic meter of water and 55 billion cubic meters of water respectively. Again ignoring the other Nile basin countries, including Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia....

* Egypt is unfortunately threatening us with war if there is a drop in their water share. I can basically paraphrase their UNSC statement as saying "Peace and security will be impacted in the horn of Africa because we will start war on Ethiopia".

* I am an Ethiopian, and I realize that Egypt relies on the Nile. As far as I can see, public opinion here (to the extent I see it) is not about depriving Egypt of water and life, it's about living a life of dignity. It's about a fair and equitable use of the water.

Again, unfortunately, Egypt is signing military deals with Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda in what is perceived here as an intimidation campaign. My two cents, there is 0 chance these countries will ever stand against Ethiopia regarding the Nile water usage. =I am perplexed that they are making an enemy out of Ethiopia when 80% of the Nile comes from here. That's no way to secure your future.

As a lover of ancient history, I am fascinated by Egypt and their reach history. I think the way to secure Egypt's future is by cooperation with all Nile basin countries to protect and further develop the Nile river basin such that the we raise the total water contained in the basin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_politics_in_the_Nile_Bas...

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#43

Gross. Dams are renewable energy, but they’re not “clean” energy. Their environmental catastrophes both upstream and downstream. The world will be a better place when we abolish dams and replace them with actually clean energy.

Hey, 60% of Ethiopians don't have powers. Take a look at "earth at night" satellite images. Ethiopia is dark. I'm an Ethiopian national and this affects me deeply. I am tired of desensitizing myself away from the plight of 4 foot 10 women carrying a load of firewood heavier than them.

I’d probably support coal over hydro. At least coal can be seamlessly transitioned to natural gas, solar, nuclear, etc.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#44

Egypt's problem is population growth: https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ And in particular their fertility rate, which remains stubbornly high at 3.33 children per woman. A popular meme has been that as countries and people get richer, they have fewer children. But, that is not occurring in Egypt, which is about twice as rich as India or Bangladesh, but has about 50% more children. Really, its just Egyptia…

This shouldn't be voted down into oblivion. Some truths are uncomfortable to hear, but that doesn't make them less true. When I was in Egypt, everywhere I looked I saw signs of overpopulation and an idle, largely uneducated workforce standing around half the day in bread lines kilometres long.

It's getting downvoted because it's blatantly racist. How else do you interpret this but racism:

> Earth is not gaining much by having millions of Egyptians - just increased resource degradation

EDIT: It also says the reason for Egypt's higher fertility rate is Islam, while comparing it to Bangladesh, another Muslim country. So it's not like the comment is racist but insightful if you ignore racism. It's racist and nonsensical.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#45

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

I didn't realize that the number of people without power in Ethiopia was quite so high, my impression was that it was more developed. I also have 0% belief that Kenya, Uganda, and Djibouti would take military action against Ethiopia. They all have their own internal problems and I doubt they would want to get mixed up in a war in which they have little to benefit from (what would the Egyptians give them?).

Random question since you're from the country - what are the feelings in Ethiopia with the elections, Tigray, etc.? I'm headed there in 1.5 weeks for my first time.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#46

Gross. Dams are renewable energy, but they’re not “clean” energy. Their environmental catastrophes both upstream and downstream. The world will be a better place when we abolish dams and replace them with actually clean energy.

I think the world will be a better place when people have access to fundamental things like clean water, power, and adequate nourishment. Let the major polluters of the world figure out carbon capture before forcing these standards on developing countries that have almost no responsibility for historic emissions.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#47

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

I recently had the chance to chat with the former ambassador (US) to Ethiopia as I'm doing some research in the region and we talked briefly about this. He thought it was very unlikely there would be military action.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This shouldn't be voted down into oblivion. Some truths are uncomfortable to hear, but that doesn't make them less true. When I was in Egypt, everywhere I looked I saw signs of overpopulation and an idle, largely uneducated workforce standing around half the day in bread lines kilometres long.

It's getting downvoted because it's blatantly racist. How else do you interpret this but racism: > Earth is not gaining much by having millions of Egyptians - just increased resource degradation EDIT: It also says the reason for Egypt's higher fertility rate is Islam, while comparing it to Bangladesh, another Muslim country. So it's not like the comment is racist but insightful if you ignore racism. It's racist and n…

Historically, Catholicism was also responsible for a high birth rate because of their religious dogma. Is that racist or a factual observation?

Not everything is racist. Racism is when you judge someone by their ethnicity alone. Racism is when you deny someone opportunities based only on their skin colour. Etc...

I'm not going to automatically assume that every Irish woman I meet is a baby-making machine just because most Irish tend to be catholic. That would be stupid. That however doesn't negate the prior fact. Catholics as a group generally tended to oppose birth control.

Making statistical observations about a nation, with numbers, is just science. Making judgements about official policy, whether it is political or religious in nature, is a statement about the policy, not any individual person.

Be careful not to fall into the trap of labelling things with the most extreme version, it limits your ability to think clearly. Not every left-leaning policy is communist. Not every right-leaning policy is fascist. Not every comment about a country is racist.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#49
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the PRC do that when Egypt’s junta is allied with the US?

Allied? more like convenient partners. Both side needs each other. But Egypt doesn't hesitate to get cozy with Russia: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tensio...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why the downvote? If you think I’m wrong I’ll take you up on a $500 bet.

How would we bet? (I wasn't the downvote you refer to though) By 'airforce action on the dam' I assume you mean aircraft bombing of the dam. By when would this happen? (ie when would the bet be closed?) [edit] I will admit I thought your idea was crazy, but you are not totally wrong looking into it, but this is about Egypt objecting it being filled in one year, which they'll let pass if conditions are ok rather than…

Betmoose.com
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