Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

phys.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 148 posts

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#21

Post by yaitsyaboi »

aaaxyz wrote: post #5
bilbo0s wrote: post #3

Cairo claims a historic right to the river dating from a 1929 treaty between Egypt and Sudan represented by colonial power Britain And A 1959 treaty boosted Egypt's allocation to around 66 percent of the river's flow, with 22 percent for Sudan Wow. That sounds like it obliges Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda to collectively use no more than 12% of the Ni…

Those countries have other sources of fresh water besides the Nile

Yes but that seems irrelevant to who should get to use it. That’s not how the wealthier Northern African states have treated other scarce resources like electricity or food during droughts.

Now that one of the poor upstream states wants to use the water passing through their backyard to tackle these issues, the most important issue is who needs a given resource more?

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#22

Post by beerandt »

herodoturtle wrote: post #4
JacobiX wrote: post #2

The article mention : "Egypt fears its supplies will be reduced during the time it takes to fill the 74-billion-cubic-metre capacity reservoir." From information that I can find, the filling can take up to 7 years !

That's a solid insight (the bit about 7 years), thanks for finding that. More detailed excerpt for other HN readers stumbling on this comment: > Ethiopia, one of Africa's fastest growing economies in recent years, insists the dam will not affect the onward flow of water. > But Egypt fears its supplies will be reduced during the time it takes to fill the 74-billion-cubic-metre capacity reservoir. > Egypt considers the…

The issue is: there are treaties that split water rights between countries, but flooding beyond 100% of capacity at any given point isn't counted.

Egypt has been taking advantage of this, allowing the "overflow" from their dam/lake nassar to be syphoned off into the desert, to the extent of trying to develop an entirely new drainage valley into farmland.

It is a mega project.

Any upriver country that is able to divert the "overflow" water before it gets too Egypt can keep it.

So it's basically an argument over who gets to keep the surplus in the water balance of the river.

>[1]Use of Nile resources is governed by the Nile Basin Initiative; but the Toshka project does not breach the agreement as water is diverted from Lake Nasser only after heavy water flows upstream have raised lake levels above 178 metres (584 ft) (see above).

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile_Basin_Initiative

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Valley_Project

[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshka_Lakes

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#23

Post by dragonwriter »

RegnisGnaw wrote: post #11

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

> PRC will veto anything from the UN Security Council.

Wait, you think the PRC will veto UNSC action on the dam (what is currently being considered) to force an Egyptian unilateral military response? What's the gain?

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#24

Post by bradleyjg »

jryle70 wrote: post #20
bradleyjg wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the PRC do that when Egypt’s junta is allied with the US?

Allied? more like convenient partners. Both side needs each other. But Egypt doesn't hesitate to get cozy with Russia: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tensio...

The US supported their coup and gives the regime billions of dollars in military aid a year despite a law that specifically forbids giving military aid to juntas that overthrow democratically elected governments.

That certainly seems pretty ally-like.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#25

Post by yaitsyaboi »

forrestthewoods wrote: post #12

Gross. Dams are renewable energy, but they’re not “clean” energy. Their environmental catastrophes both upstream and downstream. The world will be a better place when we abolish dams and replace them with actually clean energy.

You don’t think it’s a little unfair to damn a country where roughly half of people don’t have electricity for not using the very best source? The average American uses 186 times more power than an average Ethiopian.

It doesn’t make sense to ask them to try to wrestle with that kind of poverty and also shoulder the same burden as countries using hundreds of times more energy.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#26

Post by RegnisGnaw »

dragonwriter wrote: post #23
RegnisGnaw wrote: post #11

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

> PRC will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Wait, you think the PRC will veto UNSC action on the dam (what is currently being considered) to force an Egyptian unilateral military response? What's the gain?

No no. My apologies. I’m thinking nothing will come out of the UNSC action. Ethiopia will proceed as planned. Egypt alone or in partner with Sudan will take unilateral military response. PRC will veto any UNSC action in response to that.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#27

Post by yaitsyaboi »

RegnisGnaw wrote: post #11

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

China has invested tons of money into East Africa and the dam can potentially give the economy of the region a huge boost. Why would they want the dam destroyed or tacitly support such an act?

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#28

Post by asciimike »

RegnisGnaw wrote: post #11

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

I'm not a betting man, but, "Egyptian political leaders on Monday met Morsi to discuss the report. Apparently unaware their discussion was being televised live, some of them proposed hostile acts including aiding rebels inside Ethiopia and destroying the dam itself."

From: https://web.archive.org/web/20130606172030/http://www.washin...

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#29

Post by dragonwriter »

RegnisGnaw wrote: post #19
bradleyjg wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the PRC do that when Egypt’s junta is allied with the US?

The US Government won’t approve of such an action. The Junta will swing to PRC for this. China doesn’t really care as but it would be a geopolitical win. This is Egypt’s lively hood. They won’t allow this to happen.

> The US Government won’t approve of such an action.

While the Biden Administration is less absolutely in line with Egypt than Trump was on the issue, they only seem to be relatively deemphasizing GERD to apply more pressure on other humanitarian and security issues with Ethiopia. While I can't see them sanctioning a unilateral attack, absent some UNSC resolution that gets both sides onboard, I can't see them taking action against Egypt, even by way of anything more than symbolic at the UN, over it.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#30

Post by bradleyjg »

RegnisGnaw wrote: post #15
RegnisGnaw wrote: post #11

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

Why the downvote? If you think I’m wrong I’ll take you up on a $500 bet.

You can’t worry about downvoters. It’ll drive you nuts. I’ve had completely innocuous comments downvoted days after I made them.
Post reply on HN