9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft. • Hacker News Board

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#191

Post by bugsy » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 2:24 AM UTC

This is the second coordinated propaganda article this week claiming that the economic collapse is to be blamed on software engineers and inventors.

Don't be fooled. The lack of decent paying manufacturing jobs in the US is because of the lack of tariffs regarding imports from countries with despotic labor conditions and no enforced environmental laws. Microsoft does not make the stuff that WalMart sells which is imported from China.

But that is nothing compared to the money the government has thrown at speculators calling themselves bankers who have committed the fraud of the millenium, and then bailed out for their losses to the tune of twelve trillion dollars. This is another massive hit to the economy. Resources squandered on non-productive sociopaths and parasites.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#192

Post by yummyfajitas » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 2:24 AM UTC

MoreTuple wrote: post #82

muhfuhkuh wrote: post #54

IMO, the problem is much more than just automation and advancement in technology. It's actually far graver, and maybe inexorable at least in the short term. Hate the man or his policies (or both), but you can't deny President Obama's observation that training education is the real problem in the so-called "jobless recovery". America as it currently stands has a total, almost prideful disregard for education (public a…

Every person that I know that has considered starting their own business has decided against it for one reason only, health insurance. They have always been the obtainer in chief of health insurance for the family and it is too risky to go without. I strongly suspect that a public health option would blow the job market wide open between folks who want to retire but can't because health insurance is idiotically expen…

These people either don't intend on being profitable in the next 18 months or else they didn't do their research.

If you quit your job, COBRA allows you to continue to pay 101% of the group rates for 18 months and keep your old insurance.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#193

Post by virmundi » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 2:31 AM UTC

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #169

jarrett wrote: post #52

The question of whether automation causes unemployment to rise in the long run is addressed in detail here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_of_automation_to_u... TL;DNR for the Wikipedia article: People have worried about machines putting humans out of work for centuries. But the unemployment rate has not risen steadily over the same period even as technology has constantly grown. The long term trend (measu…

Robots arent doing most of the work americans used to -- people oversees are.

Actually this is false. As the graph in the article shows American manufacturing output is much higher now than it was in the past. This is due to automation and a smarter, more empowered work force.

While American jobs for simple, brute force manufacturing were outsourced, high end manufacturing for complicated things like Tractors and earth moving equipment are now essentially power assisted with automation backing or managing human output.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#194

Post by krakensden » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 2:39 AM UTC

chc wrote: post #147

sanderjd wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that business shouldn't be expected to train its workforce is intriguing to me. This seems to be an underlying assumption in our society, but I don't recall ever having heard an argument for it one way or the other. Isn't a business that refuses to provide any of the necessary education for its employees profiting from a well-educated society without pitching in anything for the bill? If all governments worl…

Businesses pay taxes and spark huge amounts of taxable activity in the course of operating — that's how they pitch in (even discounting the non-tax benefits that businesses provide to society). If society is not providing education with those tax dollars, that would be society's choice. I can see some reasons why businesses might want to provide education (and many do in certain circumstances), but in general, I don'…

The 'business lobby' is almost 100% against providing education, which is a significant part of the reason that neither the public nor private sector is doing an adequate job.

Business and society don't operate apart from each other.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#195

Post by yummyfajitas » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 2:54 AM UTC

timwiseman wrote: post #83

ZachPruckowski wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Government cannot create jobs. It can make the cost of doing business less expensive by lowering taxes, or it can make the profits of a business higher by providing incentives. But for your average small business, those kinds of changes add up to much less than one person's salary, so it makes very little difference. It can also use monetary and fiscal policy to stimulate demand, increasing the amount of work that n…

It can also use monetary and fiscal policy to stimulate demand, increasing the amount of work that needs to be done and resulting in more hiring. A government can certainly use monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate demand and create more work, but that does not necessarily result in more hiring. For one thing, when there is a surplus of goods (and there frequently is late in a recession and shortly thereafter) th…

Even when that surplus is exhausted, additional demand may be met through through automation.

This is exactly what happened in our current recession.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IPDCONGD

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DMANEMP

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#196

Post by stretchwithme » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 3:01 AM UTC

If technology is the cause of unemployment, obviously the solution is get rid of all technology.

In fact, all unemployed people need to do is go to where there is no technology. I'm sure they will find plenty of work to do.

The fact is that technology creates wealth. Cheap goods and services delivered by technology raise quality of life even for the poorest way beyond even the top dog in a technology-free society.

The availability of technology make it possible for work to produce a lot. And the availability of capital makes it possible for workers to earn high salaries. Workers can borrow money and buy the same technology and compete with their former employers. So you have to pay them much more than you would if there were no technology.

Technology gives everybody more options. Today, anybody can find enough money lying around to match the average standard living people enjoyed 200 years ago. All you need to do is collect bottles.

Unemployment is a problem in the labor market. In markets, prices go up and down so supply and demand equalize. There are many things in the labor market preventing this. The costs of hiring and later firing an employee are too high.

The labor market for low wage workers won't function properly until these costs are addressed. But many people think the solution is to make employers pay even more. Too many people don't realize how markets work.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#197

Post by yummyfajitas » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 3:03 AM UTC

chriserin wrote: post #36

This is an argument that the unemployment problem is structural rather than cyclical. Paul Krugman points out constantly that if the unemployment problem was structural, we'd see wages rising in areas where there is demand, but wages aren't rising for anybody that makes less than 400,000, though for those above they've increased 23% since 2008. The structural unemployment argument is a trope to insist that the govern…

Your post is self invalidating.

Paul Krugman points out constantly that if the unemployment problem was structural, we'd see wages rising in areas where there is demand,...

A testable prediction of (one version of) structuralist theories [1].

...for those above [400k] they've increased 23% since 2008.

It looks like reality fits the structuralist predictions - wages are rising for some people, and falling for others.

[1] Not all structuralist theories predict this, however. Krugman's version of structuralist theories is based on assumptions of interchangeability of labor, no delays in price adjustment (i.e., no sticky wages or sticky prices), and several more. It's strange how Krugman believes in sticky prices/wages when pushing Keynesian theories, but believes them to be false when bashing structuralist theories.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#198

Post by nvarsj » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 3:15 AM UTC

yummyfajitas wrote: post #192

MoreTuple wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every person that I know that has considered starting their own business has decided against it for one reason only, health insurance. They have always been the obtainer in chief of health insurance for the family and it is too risky to go without. I strongly suspect that a public health option would blow the job market wide open between folks who want to retire but can't because health insurance is idiotically expen…

These people either don't intend on being profitable in the next 18 months or else they didn't do their research. If you quit your job, COBRA allows you to continue to pay 101% of the group rates for 18 months and keep your old insurance.

COBRA can be expensive. At my last job, my premium was around 60/month. When I quit, COBRA payments were 750/month. This was before kids.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#199

Post by jonknee » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 3:15 AM UTC

gasull wrote: post #142

Unemployment happens because: 1. Producing in China is cheaper, so companies move production and jobs there. 2. China sells to the US while the US sells nothing to China but dollars. 3. This is possible because the US can print as many dollars as it pleases. 4. And that is possible because we left the gold standard in 1971 and unemployment has been growing since then, along with our trade and fiscal deficit. If we ha…

> 2. China sells to the US while the US sells nothing to China but dollars.

The US sells plenty to China. Besides the odd cases like Chinese-made Apple products that are sold for a premium in China (after being shipped back and forth to the US), there are tons of things like cars, planes, food and medical equipment that add up to over $90b annually. They're one of our largest trading partners.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#200

Post by mgkimsal » Tue, Jul 19, 2011, 3:20 AM UTC

yummyfajitas wrote: post #192

MoreTuple wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every person that I know that has considered starting their own business has decided against it for one reason only, health insurance. They have always been the obtainer in chief of health insurance for the family and it is too risky to go without. I strongly suspect that a public health option would blow the job market wide open between folks who want to retire but can't because health insurance is idiotically expen…

These people either don't intend on being profitable in the next 18 months or else they didn't do their research. If you quit your job, COBRA allows you to continue to pay 101% of the group rates for 18 months and keep your old insurance.

Not everyone can afford the short term hit of paying 3-4X what they're paying now for their health insurance. If your monthly group policy is $1200/month for your family, but the employer's paying $800 of that, and you're only paying $400, you'll get quite a shock when the COBRA bill comes.