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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And almost by definition, if you move to California from somewhere else then "home" would be lower cost of living. Only exceptions are if you grew up in NYC, Boston, DC or a few other cities. Lots of California is cheaper than a lot more than just the few most expensive cities. California is not just the central cities of the Bag Area. Also, on a state level, HI has a higher cost of living than CA.

Anecdotally as someone who's been doing some casual house-pricing over the last year around California, it is surprising how expensive a lot of the state -- including areas that were pretty cheap, in relative terms, just a few years ago -- has gotten for new home buyers. It's true that people kind of forget that there are cities outside the Bay Area and the LA Basin, but it's still dismaying how much a 1500 square fo…

Prop 13 is a huge incentive to park as much cash as possible in real estate and then never sell. Hugs market distortion. It's statewide.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#242
The baseline shouldn't be zero growth.

Over the past few decades California has seen one of the largest economic booms in history yet population has barely budged. That in itself should indicate a problem but for some reason people need to see housing get so fucked that workers are giving up on their jobs and moving away at such a rate that population declines before they'll admit something is wrong

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#243

As a native Californian, I'd be fine with more people moving out of California, especially the coastal areas. The surf spots are overcrowded compared to the days when I had the waves to myself. Then there's this: California man blasts Texas 'dystopia' in Op-Ed after moving to Austin https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/travel-outdoors/artic...

He didn’t move to Austin, he moved to Bee Cave. Huge difference.

In Texas the inner cities are like a different world from the suburban and rural areas. (I say this having lived in both SF and Austin.)

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#244
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idahoan here, previously lived in Utah. Just adding to your point. Both Idaho and Utah are becoming inundated with people from California. It's mind boggling how hard it is to find housing here. When we bought our last house we were repeatedly outbid by cash offers from California buyers. In my current neighborhood there have been 7 families that moved in during the last 12 months. One (us) from Utah, one from Texas,…

40 million people live in California. That’s more than any other state by about 10 million. That’s also nearly almost a sixth of our entire country. Everyone everywhere in this country feels like it is getting inundated by Californians. Some more than others, sure. I can see two or three cars with Cali plates right now from my stoop. More people will always be from there. I suspect this has been happening for a long…

> That’s also nearly almost a sixth of our entire country.

Not quite. It's nearly an eighth.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#245

One thing I'm interested in is, regardless of whether more californians are leaving or not, are californians driving up housing prices in the various obvious targets (oregon, idaho, montana, colorado, nevada)? I'm part of the "exodus" in that earlier this year I finally bailed on the bay area after living there my whole life for vegas, and the cost to buy a house here seems insane compared to renting and to similarly…

I experienced this too. Left SF and moved to Austin in 2020. Home prices have shot up 20% in less than a year. It’s such a sharp jump that I’d say Austin is not really that affordable anymore.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#246
post #226
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Texas and I whenever I go to California, I find it super expensive too! I am a unifier site professor and my salary is not very different from the professors in CA (State university salaries are public). I don’t know what is keeping those professors there.

This very much disagrees with you: https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/AAUP-2021-SurveyApp... A sampling of average overall salaries for professors: - UC Berkeley (ie bay area): $214,300 - UCLA: $234,200 - UT San Antonio: $130,900 - UT Dallas: $169,500 So an average Berkeley professor makes more than half again as much as an average UT San Antonio professor. And 25% more than UT Dallas.

You're forgetting income taxes and then add CoL on top of that. Sure you're making gross more but that $214k turns to ~$140k after taxes while that Texas $169k turns into ~$126k. So closer to a difference of about $14k. Then think that housing is way cheaper, gas is almost half the price, electricity can easily be had for 7c/kWh in DFW, etc. I just filled up this afternoon for $2.49/gal, what does gas cost out there these days, $4.60/gal?

In the end I imagine the prof at UTD could easily have more cash at the end of the month than the prof at UC Berkeley.

UTSA is such a small school it really shouldn't even be compared to UC Berkeley or UCLA.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#247
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that Bezos has very good instincts. So he’s able to distinguish between anecdotes like “my packages are taking longer to get to me” and “Bill Gates has been tracking me through my covid vaccine.”

I suspect that Bezos made that remark in a very particular context and didn't mean it to be generally applicable.

Besides, he didn't write this in a textbook. What he probably meant is something more like, if anecdotes seem to be pointing in a certain direction, it may be worth exploring the causes and understanding them, rather than just ignoring the anecdotes because they contradict some other information you have. What you don't know can hurt you.

This is the kind of thing good CEOs and leaders do. There's some overlap with Andy Grove's observation that "only the paranoid survive."

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#248

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

I don't know about these numbers. What I can tell you is that the business exodus from CA is very real. This means less jobs, or, what could be worse, lower paying jobs. I know of entire companies who picked-up and left for places like Arizona and Texas.

I personally cannot wait to be able to do the same. I want nothing whatsoever to do with California in terms of business. After decades of living here I am just sick of it. I can't make the move yet due to deep family ties that we must respect and be considerate of. My mother just passed two weeks ago. My father is in OK health but he is up there in years. Etc. As some of these ties dissolve it will be far easier to make the decision.

And BTW, this isn't about Democrat vs. Republican states. In fact, one of my potential targets is Massachusetts. CA has simply gone looney. I can't even begin to make a list of the nonsense people and businesses living here have to put up with.

I'll give you a few (of likely hundreds):

They passed a tax added to your property taxes that is a function of any surface area on your property that does not allow rain to come into contact with dirt. So, yes, your driveway, patio, pergola, etc. All of it results in an additional tax assessment. For businesses, this means the entire parking lot is now a tax liability. Installed solar panels on a structure over some dirt? You just incurred an additional tax on your installation.

I am currently helping a friend figure out the technical aspects of a business he wants to start. His initial target was Los Angeles. This business would likely bring dozens, if not well over a hundred jobs to wherever it might be located. We met with the building permit folks for LA County. They pretty much told us no less than three years for all the permits to be issued. He is now talking to people in Arizona, Nevada and Texas. He is also moving his existing company (~100 jobs) to wherever the new business will take root.

And then there's the hundred billion dollar high speed train to nowhere that isn't even a high speed train and (if I remember correctly) might not even have ten miles of track built.

The governor signed an executive order asking for 15% water conservation. At the same time we have no problem growing almonds here and providing this high-water-demand crop with all the water farmers need.

Oh, and have you heard of the County of Los Angeles Business Property Tax? No, not what you might think. You have desks? Copiers? Chairs? Curtains? Equipment? Shelving? Yes? Anything inside the building you own or lease for your business is considered "business property" by the County of Los Angeles. And, as such, you are required to pay a tax to the county. Yes, a tax, permanently, every single year, on your chairs, desks, computers, coffee machine, etc. In fact, they call it a "privilege tax" for the privilege of doing business in or THROUGH the county. Yes, that's correct, if your business isn't in LA County but you do business in or DRIVE THROUGH the county, you are required to pay this tax. For companies with lots of equipment (like manufacturers) this could easily amount to $50K to $100K per year. In other words, a few jobs.

There's a lot more. I'll stop there before my blood pressure goes through the roof.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We are hearing a ton of these anecdotal stories very recently about Californians moving to other states, especially wealthy, higher income individuals. We know matches a political narrative (anti-liberal, anti-tax) and that the right, such as on Fox News, has long pushed it about CA. That would explain why you hear it so much. EDIT: I'm trying to avoid discussing the politics of it on HN, but ignoring the narrative…

This is objectively true: people are leaving California for high cost of living, insane real estate prices, and dysfunctional state politics. California is not the epitome of the American dream of "heading west" to make it big that it once was. And tech workers increasingly have mobility. Just the other day there was a top story on HN about a small town in Idaho that has become unaffordable because of outflows to the…

That is nowhere near objective, it's like you didn't read the article. Your biases are pretty clearly showing here.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#250
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what a dumb quote by bezos

I assume this is getting downvoted because of its tone, but the sentiment is correct. The statement is nonsense. There can be wisdom in attempting to understand why anecdotes disagree with data, but the vast majority of the time it is simply a combination of selection bias and the human tendency to want to believe things that support your own worldview.

The statement is saying that in many situations, data is improperly or incompletely gathered, analyzed, and/or applied. Refusing to attempt to understand why an intensely data-driven individual would make that remark doesn’t seem wise. :)
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